Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Match 5 Prediction & Betting Tips

Pakistan to beat Sri Lanka in Lahore.

Our AI model gives Pakistan a 65.3% chance of beating Sri Lanka in the 5th Match of the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore, on Tuesday 27 October 2026 (1:30 pm IST, 08:00 UTC). Pakistan are already through to the final on 31 October. The market prices them at 1.47, shorter than our fair 1.53.

Can Shaheen Shah Afridi lead Pakistan past Sri Lanka again?

Pakistan opened the tri-series against Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on 18 October 2026, after Sri Lanka won the toss and bowled. Pakistan were all out for 305 in 49.5 overs. Salman Ali Agha's 107 against Sri Lanka in that innings came from 90 balls, and he was named Player of the Match.

Sri Lanka were bowled out for 268 in 48.1 overs in reply, and Pakistan won by 37 runs. Shaheen Shah Afridi took 3 for 55 in his 10 overs against Sri Lanka that day. Haris Rauf took 2 for 48 in 9.1 overs in the same innings.

On 20 October 2026 England chose to bowl at Rawalpindi, and Pakistan made 302 for 9. Arafat Minhas took 6 for 40 in 8.4 overs against England in that game, and England were all out for 215 in 38.4 overs. Pakistan won by 87 runs.

The 25 October game at Gaddafi Stadium was much tighter. Pakistan won the toss and bowled, and Shaheen Shah Afridi took 4 for 46 in 8.4 overs against England as they were all out for 241 in 46.4 overs.

Shadab Khan came in at number 8 against England and made 113 not out off 96 balls in the reply. Pakistan reached 243 for 9 in 47.1 overs and won by one wicket with 17 balls left.

Can Pavan Rathnayake lead Sri Lanka's reply?

Sri Lanka's defeat in the opener still showed their batting. Against Pakistan on 18 October 2026, Pavan Rathnayake made 79 off 74 balls, and Janith Liyanage made 60 off 74 balls as Sri Lanka were bowled out for 268.

Eshan Malinga had taken 4 for 46 in 9.5 overs against Pakistan earlier that day.

Sri Lanka won the toss and bowled against England at Rawalpindi on 22 October 2026, and England made 429 for 4 in their 50 overs. Sri Lanka then reached 430 for 8 in 49.5 overs to win by two wickets.

Pavan Rathnayake's 130 against England in that chase came off 106 balls, and he was Player of the Match. In the same innings Avishka Fernando struck 97 off 83 balls, Dasun Shanaka 97 off 50 and Janith Liyanage 61 not out off 27.

Kusal Mendis captains Sri Lanka and keeps wicket. In the opener against Pakistan he made 18 off 34 balls.

Key Matchups: Shaheen Shah Afridi against Sri Lanka's top order

Shaheen Shah Afridi vs Pavan Rathnayake: Shaheen Shah Afridi took 3 for 55 against Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi on 18 October 2026, and 4 for 46 against England in Lahore on 25 October. Pavan Rathnayake made 79 against Pakistan in the opener, from 74 balls, then 130 from 106 balls when Sri Lanka beat England in the 22 October game.

Salman Ali Agha vs Eshan Malinga: Salman Ali Agha scored 107 off 90 balls against Sri Lanka in the opener on 18 October 2026. Eshan Malinga took 4 for 46 against Pakistan in the same innings, so the two have already shaped one game between these sides.

Arafat Minhas vs Dasun Shanaka: Arafat Minhas took 6 for 40 against England at Rawalpindi on 20 October 2026. Dasun Shanaka hit 97 off just 50 balls against England in the 22 October game, and Sri Lanka will want him batting late in the innings.

Match Analysis: Where Pakistan vs Sri Lanka will be won and lost

Batting order has split the results so far. Pakistan won batting first at Rawalpindi on 18 and 20 October, while Sri Lanka (22 October) and Pakistan (25 October) won batting second.

Pakistan's chance is their attack. Shaheen Shah Afridi took 3 for 55 against Sri Lanka on 18 October and 4 for 46 against England on 25 October. The batting is the worry, because on 25 October Pakistan needed Shadab Khan's hundred from number 8 to win by one wicket.

Sri Lanka's chance is their depth. Their 430 for 8 against England on 22 October came through Pavan Rathnayake, Avishka Fernando and Dasun Shanaka, with Janith Liyanage at the finish. Pakistan bowled Sri Lanka out for 268 in the opener, and Pakistan will need a similar day with the ball.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka prediction: Pakistan favourites in Lahore

Our AI model makes Pakistan 65.3% favourites (call it 65%), with fair odds of 1.53. The 1.47 on offer is below that fair price. Sri Lanka's 2.67 is below their fair 2.88, so the match-winner market is fairly priced, and the toss is the angle, where we expect the winner to bowl first at 68%.