Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions Match 23 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Pick: Lumbini Lions to win, at 58%.
Lumbini Lions
Karnali Yaks 42%
Toss Prediction
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 78%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Pick: Lumbini Lions to win, at 58%.
- • Toss call: Field first, at 78%. We log every toss call publicly — the Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions pick is on the toss page.
- • Key fact: Lumbini held Pokhara Avengers to 97 for 9 and won by 8 wickets at Kirtipur (3 November 2026).
- • Value: Lumbini's fair odds are 1.72, and Melbet had them at 1.69 at 14:36 IST (11 November).
We back Lumbini Lions, at 58%.
Lumbini bowled Sudur Paschim Royals out for 87 at Kirtipur and won by 7 wickets (26 October 2026).
They held Pokhara Avengers to 97 for 9 and won with 50 balls left (3 November 2026).
Karnali Yaks lost to Sudur Paschim by 39 runs (6 November 2026), and Pokhara Avengers beat the Yaks by 63 runs three days later (9 November 2026).
Karnali won the two earlier meetings, by 5 runs (13 December 2024) and by 9 wickets (22 November 2025).
The 12 November 2026 game at Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground in Kirtipur is the 23rd Match of the Nepal Premier League 2026 and their first meeting of the season.
Which team is stronger, Karnali Yaks or Lumbini Lions?
Lumbini, on this season's results. Sher Malla took 3 for 11 in four overs for Lumbini against Sudur Paschim Royals (26 October 2026).
D'Arcy Short made 40 off 18 balls for Lumbini against Sudur Paschim in that game (26 October 2026), as Lumbini reached 88 for 3 in 9.5 overs.
Ruben Trumpelmann took 3 for 16 in four overs for Lumbini against Pokhara Avengers (3 November 2026).
Rohit Paudel made 47 not out off 32 balls for Lumbini against Pokhara Avengers in the same game (3 November 2026).
Kathmandu Gorkhas bowled the Lions out for 124 and won by 36 runs (7 November 2026). Lumbini's 31 October 2026 game against Chitwan Rhinos was abandoned without a ball bowled.
Sompal Kami took 4 for 33 in four overs for Karnali against Biratnagar Kings (29 October 2026).
Sompal Kami then made 62 not out off 32 balls for the Yaks against Biratnagar Kings (29 October 2026), and Karnali won by 4 wickets with one ball left.
Ariful Islam made 44 off 22 balls for Karnali against Kathmandu Gorkhas (2 November 2026). Karnali made 180 for 6 in that game and still lost by 4 wickets.
David Miller made 93 not out off 55 balls for Karnali against Sudur Paschim Royals (6 November 2026). Karnali finished on 137 for 7 and lost by 39 runs.
Pokhara Avengers made 217 for 3 against Karnali (9 November 2026). The Yaks were then all out for 154 in 18.3 overs.
Key matchups: Mark Watt against Rohit Paudel, Sher Malla against David Miller
Mark Watt against Rohit Paudel. Mark Watt made 114 not out off 44 balls for Karnali against Lumbini (22 November 2025).
Rohit Paudel made 49 off 43 balls for Lumbini against Karnali in that game (22 November 2025). The Lions captain is the batter Watt has to beat.
Sher Malla against David Miller. Sher Malla took 2 for 19 in four overs for Lumbini against Kathmandu Gorkhas (7 November 2026).
David Miller made 93 not out off 55 balls for Karnali against Sudur Paschim Royals (6 November 2026). He is the batter Lumbini must remove early.
KAY vs LUL head to head
Karnali wins
2
Lumbini wins
0
Karnali Yaks lead 2-0 in every Nepal Premier League meeting, both at Kirtipur
Mark Watt made 114 not out off 44 balls for the Yaks against Lumbini in the latest meeting (22 November 2025), and this game is the sides' first meeting of the 2026 season.
KAY vs LUL pitch report: Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur
In this slot Lumbini Lions bowled Sudur Paschim Royals out for 87 (26 October 2026) and held Pokhara Avengers to 97 for 9 (3 November 2026).
Every Karnali or Lumbini game in this game's time slot at the ground, 26 October to 7 November 2026
Sudur Paschim Royals all out for 87 in 17.2 overs · Lumbini 88 for 3 in 9.5 overs, a 7-wicket win.
Karnali 132 for 9 in 20 overs · Janakpur Bolts all out for 113 in 19.3 overs, a 19-run win.
Biratnagar Kings 186 for 7 in 20 overs · Karnali 187 for 6 in 19.5 overs, a 4-wicket win.
Pokhara Avengers 97 for 9 in 20 overs · Lumbini 98 for 2 in 11.4 overs, an 8-wicket win.
Kathmandu Gorkhas 160 for 8 in 20 overs · Lumbini all out for 124 in 19.3 overs, a 36-run win.
Clear and dry at the start, about 16°C, cooling to about 13°C, with no rain forecast through the game. Forecast read 11 November, 14:33 IST.
Karnali Yaks won the toss and fielded against Biratnagar Kings in this slot (29 October 2026), and won by 4 wickets with one ball left.
KAY vs LUL prediction: we back Lumbini at 58%
We back Lumbini at 58%, with the market at 55.7%.
Their bowling is the first reason. Pokhara Avengers made only 97 for 9 against Lumbini at Kirtipur (3 November 2026), with Ruben Trumpelmann taking 3 for 16 for Lumbini.
Karnali's form is the second. Sudur Paschim beat them by 39 runs (6 November 2026), and Pokhara Avengers beat them by 63 runs (9 November 2026).
Karnali's answer is the head to head. They won both earlier meetings, and Mark Watt made 114 not out off 44 balls for Karnali against Lumbini in the latest one (22 November 2025).
Melbet had Lumbini at 1.69 at 14:36 IST (11 November), under our fair 1.72. Karnali's 2.13 sits under our 2.39 as well, so the toss is the sharper angle.
What decides KAY vs LUL
- The toss. We expect the toss winner to bowl, at 78%. Lumbini Lions won the toss and fielded against Pokhara Avengers in this slot (3 November 2026).
- Lumbini's bowling. Sher Malla took 2 for 19 in four overs for the Lions against Kathmandu Gorkhas (7 November 2026).
- Karnali's batting. The Yaks were all out for 154 in 18.3 overs against Pokhara Avengers (9 November 2026).
- Karnali's captain. Sompal Kami took 2 for 24 in four overs for Karnali against Pokhara Avengers (9 November 2026).
Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karnali Yaks | 42% | 44.3% | 2.13 | 2.39 |
| Lumbini Lions | 58% | 55.7% | 1.69 | 1.72 |
Lumbini's 1.69 sits under our fair odds of 1.72. Melbet had Karnali at 2.13 and Lumbini at 1.69 at 14:36 IST (11 November).
Karnali's 2.13 sits under our 2.39, so neither price beats our numbers and the toss is the angle. Odds captured on 11 November 2026.
Nepal Premier League
Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions odds
12 Nov 2026 · 16:45 IST
Match winner: Karnali Yaks 2.13 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; Lumbini Lions 1.69 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 15:18–15:20 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1KAY | 2LUL | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.06 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.68 | Payout92.5% |
 | 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.13 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.69 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.13 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.69 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.13 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.69 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.13 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.69 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.13 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.69 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.13 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.69 | Payout94.5% |
| Highest | 1 · Karnali Yaks2.13 | 2 · Lumbini Lions1.69 | Payout– |
1X2: Karnali Yaks 2.14, Tie 25.00, Lumbini Lions 1.69 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 15:20 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1KAY | XTie | 2LUL | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.14 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.69 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.14 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.69 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.14 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.69 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.14 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.69 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.14 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.69 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Karnali Yaks 2.14 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Lumbini Lions 1.69 | Payout91.2% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions in the Nepal Premier League?
Lumbini. Our AI model gives them a 58% chance against Karnali Yaks at Kirtipur on 12 November 2026. They held Pokhara Avengers to 97 for 9 and won by 8 wickets (3 November 2026), and Pokhara beat Karnali by 63 runs in Karnali's latest game (9 November 2026).
What is the toss prediction for KAY vs LUL?
Field first, at 78%. Lumbini Lions won the toss and fielded against Pokhara Avengers at Kirtipur (3 November 2026), then won by 8 wickets. Karnali Yaks won the toss and fielded against Biratnagar Kings (29 October 2026), then won by 4 wickets with one ball left.
What are the odds for KAY vs LUL?
At 14:36 IST on 11 November, Melbet had Lumbini at 1.69 and Karnali at 2.13, the same as our other partner books. Our fair odds are 1.72 for Lumbini and 2.39 for Karnali, so both prices sit under our numbers and the toss is the sharper angle.
Is Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground a batting or bowling pitch?
It has helped bowlers in this slot, where Lumbini Lions bowled Sudur Paschim Royals out for 87 (26 October 2026) and held Pokhara Avengers to 97 for 9 (3 November 2026). Karnali Yaks still made 187 for 6 to beat Biratnagar Kings by 4 wickets (29 October 2026).
When did Karnali Yaks and Lumbini Lions last play each other?
At Kirtipur on 22 November 2025, in the Nepal Premier League. Lumbini Lions made 156 for 8. Karnali Yaks reached 161 for 1 in 12.2 overs to win by 9 wickets, with Mark Watt on 114 not out off 44 balls. Karnali also won the 13 December 2024 meeting by 5 runs.
Where is KAY vs LUL played?
At Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground in Kirtipur, on 12 November 2026. It is the 23rd match of the Nepal Premier League 2026 and the sides' first meeting of the season, and the forecast is clear and dry, about 16°C at the start.
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