The Hundred 2026
MI London vs Sunrisers Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips
ML MI London
SL Sunrisers Leeds
The Kia Oval, Londonยท
โก Key Takeaways
- โข MI London predicted to win with 58.1% probability, a rounded confidence of 58%
- โข The champions kept their core: Sam Curran, Will Jacks and Rashid Khan all stayed through the rebrand
- โข Our model sits 3.6 points above the bookmaker consensus on MI London, a rare genuine disagreement for an opening night
- โข This ground rewards the side batting second, and captains overwhelmingly bowl first
- โข Available prices are 1.77 on MI London and 2.20 on Sunrisers Leeds, against our fair odds of 1.72 and 2.39
$5,000,000 Prize Pool
Sweet Holiday Chase ยท 15% rakeback with code maximus88
๐ช Toss Prediction Simulator
Flip the Coin โ See How Probabilities Shift
Bowl first โ 62% chase win rate at The Kia Oval, London
You called the toss. Now call the coin.
The toss vote here is free. CricketFlip is the real TON heads-or-tails game: Standard flips are 50/50 and pay 2ร if you win.
Call heads or tails โMI London open their title defence as favourites.
Our AI model predicts MI London to beat Sunrisers Leeds with 58.1% probability in the opening match of The Hundred 2026 at the Kia Oval on 21 July. New name, same core: the three-time champions formerly known as Oval Invincibles start at home, against the side that beat them in the most recent meeting.
๐ฏ The Scenario Map
How our prediction shifts based on batting order. Plan your bet before the toss.
- If Rashid Khan misses out, MI London lose their best middle-overs control and the base prediction drops by roughly 4-5%
- A dry, used surface in a busy Oval summer would pull first-innings totals below the usual mid-140s and nudge the spin-heavy visitors up 2-3%
- A rain-shortened match compresses the contest toward even, though the forecast puts rain under 5%
MI London: a new badge on a three-peat dynasty
The rebrand changes the shirt, not the spine. MI London won the men's Hundred in 2023, 2024 and 2025 as Oval Invincibles, and the players who drove those titles stayed. Sam Curran captains, Will Jacks returns after his 72 in the 2025 final win over Trent Rockets at Lord's, and Rashid Khan remains the bowler opponents plan around.
The additions upgrade from strength. Nicholas Pooran brings one of the most destructive short-format bats in the world, Trent Boult arms the new ball, and James Vince adds a settled top-order option. A champion core plus that intake, at home, is why our model starts them clear favourites.
Sunrisers Leeds bring the blueprint that beat the champions
Sunrisers Leeds inherit Northern Superchargers' record, including the most recent word in this rivalry: 198-4 at Headingley in August 2025 and a 16-run win over the Invincibles, with Harry Brook making 56 and Zak Crawley 49. Both are still here, and Crawley now captains.
The 2026 build adds weight around that pair. Mitchell Marsh and Nathan Ellis arrived as direct signings, Ryan Rickelton brings a second aggressive opener, Brydon Carse stays as the enforcer, and Abrar Ahmed gives Crawley a mystery-spin card. This is the team that solved the champions once, reinforced.
Key Matchups: Rashid Khan against the men who beat his side
Rashid Khan vs Harry Brook: Brook took the last predecessor meeting away from the Invincibles with 56, and Rashid is the bowler most likely to be saved for him. Whoever wins their middle-overs duel probably controls the decisive phase.
Trent Boult vs Zak Crawley: Crawley's new-ball intent shaped that Headingley win, and Boult is the most accomplished new-ball bowler on either side. The first 25 balls of the Sunrisers Leeds innings run through this contest.
Nicholas Pooran vs Abrar Ahmed: Pooran is the new destructive element in the MI London order, and Abrar is the spinner signed to attack exactly that kind of batter. Take Pooran early and the champions' middle order looks far more ordinary.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
As Oval Invincibles and Northern Superchargers, these are familiar opponents. The Invincibles won both the 2022 and 2023 meetings between the sides, but the Superchargers hold the more recent word, and it is the one that matters here: on 23 August 2025 at Headingley, they won by 16 runs, with Harry Brook making 56 and Zak Crawley 49 โ the two men who now lead the rebranded Sunrisers Leeds.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
The Kia Oval, London โ Capacity 27,500. MI London are the home side on the ground where the franchise won its three titles, and the short square boundaries reward hitters.
- Pitch: Hundred matches here favour the chasing side, and first-innings totals typically settle in the mid-140s in the 100-ball format.
- Weather: The forecast for the evening of 21 July 2026 is dry and mild, 20-22ยฐC with rain under 5% and light wind. Mild dew at most.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first โ captains here overwhelmingly bowl first, the chase wins more often than not, and a dry evening gives the side batting second nothing to fear. Our dedicated toss page for this match carries the field-first call, timestamped before the toss.
Match Analysis: where this match will be won and lost
The opening 25 balls frame the night. MI London send Pooran and Jacks at a new attack while Boult works the other end; Sunrisers Leeds counter with Rickelton and Crawley against a champion attack. In a 100-ball game the side losing two early wickets rarely recovers its shape.
The middle overs are a spin duel with different jobs: Rashid attacks stumps and forces errors, Abrar hunts the one wicket that changes a chase. On a used July surface with totals in the mid-140s, the spinner conceding ten fewer runs probably hands his side the match.
Then there is the batting order: whichever side bats first hands the other the better half of the night. Our scenario map moves this match seven points on the toss alone, from 51.1% to 65.1% for MI London. The champions are markedly harder to beat when they know the target.
MI London vs Sunrisers Leeds Prediction: champions to start the new era fast
Our model makes MI London 58.1% favourites to open The Hundred 2026 with a win: a three-time title core kept intact, upgraded with Pooran and Boult, at home. Sunrisers Leeds bring the rivalry's most recent win and the captain who helped deliver it, so this is a real contest, and the coin toss can bring the visitors right back into it if MI London bat first.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI London | 58.1% | 54.5% | 1.77 | 1.72 |
| Sunrisers Leeds | 41.9% | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.39 |
Our model and the market disagree here, and the toss decides how far. MI London at 1.77 sit between our fair odds of 1.72 and the bookmaker consensus near 1.83, which is the 3.6-point disagreement expressed in price form. Sunrisers Leeds at 2.20 sit below our 2.39 fair line. The batting order is the bigger lever: our scenario map moves MI London from 51.1% to 65.1% on the toss alone, so the sensible read is to wait for the coin before committing either way. Odds captured on 19 July 2026.
Our model is 3.6 points above the market on MI London. Here's why. The bookmakers price the favourite at 54.5%; we make it 58.1%. The gap is continuity the market may be underweighting: MI London retained the exact core that won in 2023, 2024 and 2025, while the rebrand invites the books to treat both sides as new entities. They also start at the ground where the franchise has played its entire Hundred history, and its lean toward the chasing side suits the deeper batting unit.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win MI London vs Sunrisers Leeds in The Hundred 2026?
Our AI model predicts MI London to win with 58.1% probability against Sunrisers Leeds at the Kia Oval on 21 July 2026. MI London are the rebranded Oval Invincibles, champions in 2023, 2024 and 2025, and kept the core of that side.
What is the toss prediction for MI London vs Sunrisers Leeds?
Field first. Captains overwhelmingly bowl first at the Kia Oval in this competition, and the ground's Hundred results favour the chasing side. The team winning the toss on 21 July 2026 should put the opposition in.
What are the best odds for MI London vs Sunrisers Leeds?
MI London are available at 1.77 and Sunrisers Leeds at 2.20 for the opening match of The Hundred 2026. Our fair odds are 1.72 and 2.39 respectively, with the bookmaker consensus pricing MI London nearer 1.83, so our model rates the favourite more strongly than the market does.
How does the toss affect MI London vs Sunrisers Leeds?
It moves the match by seven points. If Sunrisers Leeds bat first, MI London rise to 65.1% chasing at the Kia Oval. If MI London bat first, they drop to 51.1% and the game becomes close to even. Captains at this ground overwhelmingly choose to bowl.
What is the pitch like at the Kia Oval for The Hundred?
The Kia Oval holds 27,500 and its Hundred matches favour the side batting second. First-innings totals in the 100-ball format typically settle in the mid-140s, and the short square boundaries reward aggressive batting through the middle.
Have MI London and Sunrisers Leeds played each other before?
Not under these names: 21 July 2026 is the first meeting since both franchises rebranded. As Oval Invincibles and Northern Superchargers they were regular opponents, with the Invincibles winning the 2022 and 2023 meetings and the Superchargers taking the most recent, by 16 runs at Headingley on 23 August 2025.
Upcoming 100 Tips
Also Playing Today
Explore More
Tested platforms with UPI and fast withdrawals
๐ฏ our prediction accuracy recordEvery prediction logged, every result settled publicly
๐ today's free cricket tipsAll today's free cricket prediction tips
๐ช our toss decision callPre-toss call vs actual outcome, auto-stamped