Women's National Cricket League
New South Wales Women vs Queensland Women Prediction & Betting Tips
NSW-W New South Wales Women
QLD-W Queensland Women
Cricket Central, Sydney·
🎯 338/570 predictions correct⚡ Key Takeaways
- • NSW Women predicted to win with 64% probability
- • NSW beat Queensland by 6 wickets at this ground in round one (29 September 2026), chasing 168 in 25 overs
- • Georgia Voll made 83 for Queensland in that game, and Samantha Bates answered with 5 for 40
- • Our toss pick: bowl first, after the chasing side won here with 150 balls to spare
- • Both prices sit just under our fair odds (1.52 against 1.56, 2.61 against 2.78), so the toss is the sharper angle
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Call heads or tails →New South Wales Women start as clear favourites.
Our AI model predicts New South Wales Women to beat Queensland Women with 64% probability at Cricket Central, Sydney on Thursday 1 October 2026. The same two sides met on this ground two days earlier, and NSW won that game by 6 wickets with 150 balls remaining. Queensland are the reigning WNCL champions, though, and they beat NSW in the 2025-26 final on 21 March 2026.
Can NSW Women repeat their 25-over chase?
NSW Women chased 168 in 25 overs in round one, and the platform came from the top of the order. Phoebe Litchfield made 68 off 56 balls with 13 fours, and Emma Manix-Geeves added 51 off 62. Their opening stand was worth 124.
Ashleigh Gardner finished the job with 27 not out off 21 balls, after taking 2 for 26 from her 6 overs earlier in the day. Ellyse Perry was out for 0 off 4 balls, which shows how little NSW needed from their middle order.
The bowling was led by Samantha Bates, who took 5 for 40 from her 10 overs. That spell turned a steady Queensland innings into 167 all out in 38 overs, and it leaves NSW with a settled attack for the second meeting.
Queensland Women need more than Georgia Voll's 83
Georgia Voll carried Queensland Women in round one with 83 off 95 balls, including 9 fours and 2 sixes. The problem was what happened around her. Queensland were 97 for 1 and then 98 for 4, losing three wickets for one run in the middle of the innings.
Annie O'Neil made 21 off 22 balls and Jess Jonassen 19 off 26, but Grace Harris fell for 1 off 3 balls.
Queensland won the rivalry's biggest recent game, though. They posted 332 for 7 in the 2025-26 final on 21 March 2026 and beat NSW by 7 runs on the DLS method. That total shows the batting depth they can reach when the top order lasts.
Key Matchups: Samantha Bates against Georgia Voll
Samantha Bates vs Georgia Voll: Bates ended Voll's 83 in the first meeting of the season, with Ellyse Perry taking the catch. Voll faced 95 balls in that innings, so the first hour of her batting against Bates is where Queensland's total will be decided.
Phoebe Litchfield vs Jess Jonassen: Litchfield scored 68 off 56 balls with 13 fours in the first meeting of the season. Queensland need Jonassen's overs to slow her early, or NSW can chase quickly again.
Ashleigh Gardner vs the Queensland middle order: Gardner took 2 for 26 and then made 27 not out off 21 balls in the same game. Queensland lost three wickets for one run in that game, and Gardner is the bowler NSW will turn to if the same chance appears.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
These two sides met in the 2025-26 WNCL final on 21 March 2026, and Queensland Women won it by 7 runs on the DLS method, posting 332 for 7 against NSW Women's 212 for 6.
The first meeting of the new season went the other way. In round one (29 September 2026) at Cricket Central, Sydney, NSW bowled Queensland out for 167 and won by 6 wickets with 150 balls remaining.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Cricket Central, Sydney hosts the same two sides again, two days after their round-one game. The 29 September game here produced 167 for the side batting first and 168 for 4 for the chasing side, reached in 25 overs.
- Pitch: The round-one chase was finished with 150 balls remaining, after Queensland Women were bowled out in 38 overs.
- Weather: The Sydney forecast for 1 October is dry, with a 9:30 am local start (23:30 UTC on 30 September).
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — NSW Women chased 168 here with 150 balls to spare in round one. See our public toss call for NSW-W vs QLD-W on the dedicated page.
Match Analysis: where this match will be won and lost
The swing in the 29 September game came in one short passage. Queensland Women were 97 for 1, then lost three wickets for one run to sit at 98 for 4. They were all out for 167 in 38 overs.
NSW Women then needed only 25 overs, because Litchfield and Manix-Geeves added 124 for the first wicket. A repeat of that start would make the chase short again, whatever Queensland set.
Queensland's path is clear from the final in March: a long innings built on a set top order. They scored 332 for 7 in that game, and Voll's 83 in round one shows the top order can still go deep. The question is whether the batters around her can stay in against Bates and Gardner.
New South Wales Women vs Queensland Women Prediction: NSW to win
Our AI model gives NSW Women a 64% chance to beat Queensland Women on Thursday. The reasons are the 6-wicket win on this ground two days earlier, the 124-run opening stand, and Samantha Bates' 5 for 40. Queensland Women at 36% are the reigning champions and can still post a big total if Voll bats long.
The match-winner market is fairly priced on both sides, so the toss is the angle: we expect the toss winner to bowl first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New South Wales Women | 64% | 64% | 1.52 | 1.56 |
| Queensland Women | 36% | 36% | 2.61 | 2.78 |
The match-winner market is efficiently priced. Our 64% for NSW Women matches the market's price, so their available 1.52 sits under our fair odds of 1.56, and Queensland Women's 2.61 is below our 2.78. The toss call is the more interesting angle for this game. Odds captured on 30 September 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win New South Wales Women vs Queensland Women in the Women's National Cricket League?
Our AI model predicts NSW Women to beat Queensland Women with 64% probability at Cricket Central, Sydney (1 October 2026). NSW won the previous meeting on this ground by 6 wickets in round one.
What is the toss prediction for NSW Women vs Queensland Women?
Our toss call for NSW v Queensland at Cricket Central, Sydney is to bowl first. Two days earlier at the same ground, the side batting second won with 150 balls to spare.
What are the best odds for NSW Women vs Queensland Women?
The available odds for NSW v Queensland are 1.52 on NSW Women and 2.61 on Queensland Women. Our fair odds are 1.56 and 2.78, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced.
Who won the last match between NSW Women and Queensland Women?
NSW beat Queensland by 6 wickets at Cricket Central, Sydney (29 September 2026). Queensland made 167 in 38 overs, with Georgia Voll scoring 83, and NSW reached 168 for 4 in 25 overs.
Who won the 2025-26 WNCL final between NSW and Queensland?
Queensland Women won the 2025-26 WNCL final against NSW Women by 7 runs on the DLS method (21 March 2026). Queensland scored 332 for 7 and NSW finished on 212 for 6.
What time does NSW v Queensland start?
The WNCL match between NSW and Queensland starts at 9:30 am local time in Sydney (Thursday 1 October 2026), which is 5:00 am IST and 23:30 UTC on 30 September. It is a 50-over game at Cricket Central.
