Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Final Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Pakistan predicted to win with 62.5% probability
Pakistan
Sri Lanka 37%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 72%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Pakistan predicted to win with 62.5% probability
- • Pakistan won three of their four series games; Sri Lanka won two of four
- • Sri Lanka bowled Pakistan out for 110 in Lahore on 27 October 2026 and won by 8 wickets
- • We expect the toss winner to field first in Lahore (72%)
- • Pakistan at 1.54 and Sri Lanka at 2.55 both sit just below our fair odds of 1.60 and 2.67
Pakistan to beat Sri Lanka in the final.
Our AI model gives Pakistan a 62.5% chance of beating Sri Lanka in the final of the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore, on 31 October 2026, at 1:30 pm IST (08:00 UTC). Pakistan won three of their four games in the series. Sri Lanka won two of four, and one of those wins was an 8-wicket rout of Pakistan at this ground.
Pakistan's series has been strong apart from one collapse
Pakistan opened the series with a 37-run win over Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi on 18 October 2026. Salman Agha made 107 off 90 balls and Babar Azam 45 as Pakistan made 305. Sri Lanka were then all out for 268 in 48.1 overs, with Shaheen Shah Afridi taking 3 for 55.
Two days later England were beaten by 87 runs. Arafat Minhas made 59 off 58 balls in Pakistan's 302 for 9. He then took 6 for 40 as England were dismissed for 215 in 38.4 overs.
The first Lahore game was tight. England were all out for 241 in 46.4 overs on 25 October, with Shaheen Shah Afridi taking 4 for 46. Shadab Khan then made 113 off 96 balls, and Pakistan won by 1 wicket with 17 balls remaining.
The one bad day came two days after that. Pakistan were bowled out for 110 in 25.3 overs by Sri Lanka on 27 October, and the game was over before the halfway mark of the second innings.
Can Sri Lanka's batting carry them to the title?
Sri Lanka's batting has made the big numbers. Chasing England's 429 for 4 at Rawalpindi on 22 October 2026, they made 430 for 8 in 49.5 overs and won by 2 wickets with 1 ball remaining. Pavan Rathnayake made 130 off 106 balls in that chase, and Avishka Fernando added 97 off 83.
Their bowling won the second game against Pakistan. Dilshan Madushanka took 5 for 34 as Pakistan were dismissed for 110 in Lahore (27 October). Kamindu Mendis then made 62 off 60 balls, and Sri Lanka reached 114 for 2 in 18.1 overs to win by 8 wickets with 191 balls remaining.
The last league game went the other way. England made 386 for 5 in Lahore on 29 October 2026. Sri Lanka were all out for 331 in 45.1 overs, with Pavan Rathnayake making 118 off 77 balls and Kusal Mendis 89 off 71, and England won by 55 runs.
Key Matchups: Shaheen against Rathnayake, Madushanka against Pakistan's top order
Shaheen Shah Afridi vs Pavan Rathnayake: Pavan Rathnayake made 79 against Pakistan (18 October), 130 in the England chase (22 October) and 118 in the 29 October game. Shaheen Shah Afridi took 3 for 55 in the first of those games and 4 for 46 in the England win at Lahore, and early wickets from him are Pakistan's best answer.
Dilshan Madushanka vs Pakistan's top order: Dilshan Madushanka's 5 for 34 in the 27 October game turned the series around for Sri Lanka. Pakistan made 305 in the opening game (18 October), with Salman Agha scoring 107 off 90 balls, and they need runs like that against Madushanka again.
Shadab Khan vs Kamindu Mendis: Shadab Khan's 113 off 96 balls won the 25 October game from a tight spot. Kamindu Mendis made 62 off 60 balls in the 27 October chase, and the middle overs between these two could decide the final.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
The sides won one game each in the series. Pakistan won the first meeting by 37 runs at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on 18 October 2026, after making 305 and bowling Sri Lanka out for 268.
Sri Lanka won the second by 8 wickets at Gaddafi Stadium on 27 October 2026. Pakistan made 110 in that game. Sri Lanka then needed only 18.1 overs to reach 114 for 2.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore has hosted three games of this series, and the chasing side won two of them. Pakistan made 243 for 9 to beat England's 241 there on 25 October 2026, and Sri Lanka chased down Pakistan's 110 two days later.
- Start: 1:30 pm IST (08:00 UTC) on 31 October 2026, which is 1:00 pm in Lahore.
- Recent scores: England made 386 for 5 in Lahore on 29 October 2026, and Sri Lanka replied with 331.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — we put the chance that the toss winner chooses to field at 72%. Our full pre-toss call for this match is on the dedicated toss page.
Match Analysis: Pakistan need their batting to last against the new ball
When Pakistan's batting has held, they have won. They made 305 against Sri Lanka and 302 for 9 against England at Rawalpindi, and Shadab Khan's 113 rescued their chase against England at Lahore. When it failed, against Dilshan Madushanka on 27 October, they were all out for 110 in 25.3 overs.
Sri Lanka's route is the same as in that game. Early wickets put Pakistan under pressure, and Pavan Rathnayake has three scores of 79 or more in the series to back up a chase. If Pakistan get through the new-ball overs with wickets in hand, they have the batting to set or chase a big total, as Shadab Khan showed on 25 October.
Pakistan vs Sri Lanka prediction: Pakistan the pick in Lahore
Our AI model makes Pakistan 62.5% favourites for the final, with fair odds of 1.60. Pakistan at 1.54 and Sri Lanka at 2.55 both sit just below their fair prices, so the match-winner market has this about right. The toss is the clearer angle: we expect the toss winner to field first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 62.5% | 62.3% | 1.54 | 1.60 |
| Sri Lanka | 37.5% | 37.7% | 2.55 | 2.67 |
The market broadly agrees with us. Pakistan's 1.54 is a little below our fair odds of 1.60, and Sri Lanka's 2.55 is a little below our fair 2.67, so the match-winner price is fair rather than generous. Our model is 0.2 points above the market on Pakistan. The toss call is where we see the clearer edge. Odds captured on 29 October 2026.
Pakistan ODI Tri-Series 2026
Pakistan vs Sri Lankaodds
31 Oct 2026 · 13:30 IST
Match winner: Pakistan 1.54 at Dafabet; Sri Lanka 2.59 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet; checked 02:10–02:12 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1PAK | 2SL | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Pakistan 1.54 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.55 | Payout96.0% |
 | 1 · Pakistan 1.50 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.59 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Pakistan 1.50 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.59 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Pakistan 1.50 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.59 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Pakistan 1.50 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.59 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Pakistan 1.50 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.59 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Pakistan 1.50 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.58 | Payout95.0% |
| Highest | 1 · Pakistan1.54 | 2 · Sri Lanka2.59 | Payout– |
1X2: Pakistan 1.50, Tie 50.00, Sri Lanka 2.59 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 02:10 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1PAK | XTie | 2SL | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Pakistan 1.50 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.59 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Pakistan 1.50 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.59 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Pakistan 1.50 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.59 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Pakistan 1.50 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.59 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Pakistan 1.50 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.59 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Pakistan 1.50 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.59 | Payout93.4% |
Total runs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Match521.5 | 1.90PlanBet | 1.76Megapari |
| Pakistan268.5 | 1.85Megapari | 1.81Paripesa |
| Sri Lanka255.5 | 1.851xBet | 1.81Melbet |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka tri-series final?
Our AI model predicts Pakistan to beat Sri Lanka, with a 62.5% win probability, in the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series final at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore (31 October 2026). Pakistan won three of their four series games, and the two sides won one game each against each other.
What is the toss prediction for Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?
We expect the toss winner to field first in the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka final, at 72%. The final at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore starts at 1:30 pm IST (08:00 UTC) on 31 October 2026.
What are the odds for Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?
At the time of writing, 29 October 2026, Pakistan were priced at 1.54 and Sri Lanka at 2.55 for the final, against our fair odds of 1.60 and 2.67. Both prices sit a little below our fair odds.
What happened when Pakistan and Sri Lanka met in the series?
Pakistan beat Sri Lanka by 37 runs at Rawalpindi on 18 October 2026, with Salman Agha making 107. Sri Lanka won the return game by 8 wickets at Gaddafi Stadium on 27 October 2026, after Dilshan Madushanka took 5 for 34 and Pakistan were all out for 110.
How has the pitch played at Gaddafi Stadium in this series?
Gaddafi Stadium has produced totals from 110 to 386 in the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series. Pakistan made 243 for 9 to beat England's 241 on 25 October 2026, and England made 386 for 5 against Sri Lanka on 29 October 2026.
Who are the key players for Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?
For Pakistan, Shaheen Shah Afridi took 4 for 46 against England at Lahore and Shadab Khan made 113 off 96 balls in the same game. For Sri Lanka, Pavan Rathnayake made 130 and 118 against England in the tri-series, and Dilshan Madushanka took 5 for 34 against Pakistan.
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