Surrey vs Essex Toss Prediction (SUR vs ESS)

Sunday, 12 July 2026 · 23:00 IST · Kennington Oval, London · Cricket

Last updated: 12 July 2026

Toss prediction page launched 11 July 2026. The pre-toss call summarised here was originally published in our Surrey vs Essex match preview on 2 June 2026.

What did the toss winner choose?

✓ Decision called

Our predicted decision

field first

From the article: "The Oval has favoured the side batting second, so the toss winner is likely to field."

What happened

Essex elected to field

Stamped 12 Jul, 23:35 IST · live data feed

Match outcome

Essex won by 8 wickets (with 19 balls remaining) ✗ match-winner prediction wrong

🏟️ What the toss means at Kennington Oval, London

Toss impact: HIGH chase-friendly ground — teams batting second win 56% here

The toss went Essex's way — they chose to field, so Essex chase. In this branch our model makes Surrey 60.5% — fair odds 1.65 (ESS 2.53) against a pre-toss baseline of 64.5%.

How we made this Surrey vs Essex toss prediction

We do not predict who wins the coin flip itself; that is genuinely 50/50. We predict what the toss winner will choose to do. For this match, our pre-toss call was made in the article body before the toss happened. The result above shows whether the captain actually followed our predicted decision.

For the full methodology — venue toss patterns, dew, and captaincy psychology — see the venue field-first method.

Full match prediction

Beyond the toss, we publish a complete probability model for SUR vs ESS: win probability, fair odds, key matchups, and a scenario map.

Read full Surrey vs Essex prediction →

SUR vs ESS toss prediction FAQ

Who won the SUR vs ESS toss?

Essex won the SUR vs ESS toss and chose to field first.

What did the toss winner choose in SUR vs ESS?

Essex chose to field first. Our pre-toss call was field first — the captain did what we predicted.

How does the toss affect the SUR vs ESS match odds?

Meaningfully. Kennington Oval, London favours chasing (teams batting second win 56% here), so our model shifts the match win probability by about 4 percentage points depending on which side ends up chasing — with evening dew adding to the chase advantage under lights. A pre-toss match price averages both branches, so the toss result itself can create or kill value on the match market.

More toss predictions

All toss predictions → · Full prediction archive →