Auckland Hearts Women vs Wellington Blaze Women Prediction - Women's Super Smash
AH Auckland Hearts Women
WB Wellington Blaze Women
Women's Super Smash
Auckland Hearts Women vs Wellington Blaze Women Match Prediction
Wellington Blaze are our pick at 78% confidence. The bookmakers have them at 1.41 (70.9% implied), but our model gives them 78%. That's +7.1% edge on the defending champions who just demolished Auckland by 49 runs four days ago.
Match Context
This is a rematch of the December 29 clash at Basin Reserve, where Wellington crushed Auckland by 49 runs. Amelia Kerr scored her maiden T20 century (106* off 61 balls) and Georgia Plimmer added 62. Auckland were bowled out for 135. Now Auckland host the return fixture at Eden Park Outer Oval, seeking revenge but facing an even stronger Wellington side.
Team News
Wellington Blaze (3-0): Captain Amelia Kerr is in career-defining form with 206 runs at SR 137+ this tournament. The Kerr sisters (Amelia and Jess Kerr) provide all-round quality. Georgia Plimmer has 101 runs at avg 50.50. Most crucially, Australian superstar Ellyse Perry took 3/11 in her last match and scored 39 off 31 balls. Xara Jetly leads the wicket-taking charts with 5 wickets.
Auckland Hearts (0-1, 1 NR): Captain Maddy Green top-scored with just 39 in the last meeting. Lauren Down was their best performer last season (304 runs at avg 76.00). Critical blow: Fran Jonas, their best spinner (37 wickets in 33 games, avg 20.59), has withdrawn from the entire tournament to remodel her bowling action. Without their spin spearhead, Auckland's bowling looks thin.
Why Wellington Are Strong Favourites (78%)
- Dominant H2H: Beat Auckland by 49 runs just 4 days ago - comprehensive victory
- Amelia Kerr factor: 206 runs this tournament, maiden T20 ton vs this same opponent
- World-class depth: Plimmer, both Kerrs, and Ellyse Perry at #3
- 3-0 record: Beat Central Hinds, Auckland, and Northern Brave convincingly
- Defending champions: Won their 9th Super Smash title last season
Why Auckland Could Upset (22%)
- Home venue: Eden Park Outer Oval with crowd support
- Revenge motivation: Will be desperate to avenge 49-run loss
- Rain factor: 12mm forecast - shortened game increases variance
- Lauren Down: Last season's top performer (304 runs) could fire
Key Player Stats (WSS 2025-26)
| Player | Team | Role | Tournament Form |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amelia Kerr (c) | WB | All-rounder | 206 runs, SR 137+, 106* vs AH |
| Georgia Plimmer | WB | Opener | 101 runs, avg 50.50 |
| Ellyse Perry | WB | All-rounder | 3/11 and 39(31) vs Northern Brave |
| Xara Jetly | WB | Spinner | 5 wickets (tournament leader) |
| Maddy Green (c) | AH | Batter | 43 runs, top-scored 39 vs WB |
| Fran Jonas | AH | Spinner | WITHDRAWN from tournament |
Venue & Conditions
Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland: Drop-in pitch that assists pacers with bounce early before slowing down. No significant toss bias historically.
Weather: High rain risk - 12mm expected with showers in morning progressing to heavy rain by evening. Match starts 12:40 PM local. A shortened match via DLS would likely favour Wellington's deeper batting lineup.
Final Verdict
Wellington are dominant. They've won all 3 matches this season and just thrashed Auckland by 49 runs. Amelia Kerr is in once-in-a-career form. Auckland are missing their best bowler (Fran Jonas). The only real risk is rain causing a No Result.
Wellington Blaze at 78% confidence is our pick. Stake: ?100 (1 unit).
Value Note
Auckland at 2.75 (36.4% implied). Our 22% assessment = -14.4% edge. No value.
Wellington at 1.41 (70.9% implied). Our 78% assessment = +7.1% edge.
VALUE BET: Wellington Blaze @ 1.41. The market is slightly underpricing the defending champions who are 3-0 and just demolished this opponent by 49 runs.
