The Hundred 2026
Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips
MSG Manchester Super Giants
SUN Sunrisers Leeds
Emirates Old Trafford, Manchesterยท
๐ฏ 287/492 predictions correctโก Key Takeaways
- โข Sunrisers Leeds predicted to win with 55.4% probability
- โข Sunrisers Leeds won the only previous meeting, at Headingley on 28 July 2026, by 8 wickets
- โข Sunrisers Leeds posted 201 for 4 and won by 71 runs on 9 August 2026, two days before this game
- โข Field first: chasing has carried the edge at this ground in this competition
- โข Sunrisers Leeds at 1.85 against our fair 1.81 is a marginal edge, so keep stakes small
Small edge โ the price sits just above our fair line. Worth noting, size accordingly.
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๐ช Toss Prediction Simulator
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Toss is neutral at Emirates Old Trafford
How batting order moves the Sunrisers Leeds number.
- If Mitchell Marsh misses out, Sunrisers Leeds drop roughly 4%, since he made 50 in their 9 August 2026 win
- If the surface looks dry and slow, the side batting first gains around 3%, because a defendable total stops being a liability
- If Jos Buttler bats through as he did on 31 July 2026, Manchester Super Giants gain 3% to 5%
Sunrisers Leeds edge a Manchester rematch.
Our AI model predicts Sunrisers Leeds to win at Emirates Old Trafford on 11 August 2026 with 55.4% probability. That makes Manchester Super Giants underdogs on their own ground, which reads oddly until you look at the last fortnight. Sunrisers Leeds have beaten this opponent once already, and they arrive two days after one of their most convincing wins.
Can Manchester Super Giants turn home advantage into a win?
Manchester Super Giants beat Southern Brave on 8 August 2026, and Paul Walter was the reason. He scored 64 and took the Player of the Match award, giving the middle order the acceleration it had been missing.
The concern is this ground rather than away from it. On 31 July 2026 at Old Trafford, Manchester Super Giants posted 137 for 3 and Trent Rockets chased it at 140 for 4, winning by 6 wickets. Jos Buttler made 55 not out from 37 balls, and the problem was not his rate but the lack of support around him. A total in the 130s here gives the chasing side too little to think about.
They did get it right here six days later, beating Welsh Fire at the same ground on 5 August 2026. The home record is mixed rather than poor, and the batting has the personnel to set a bigger number than it managed on 31 July.
Why Sunrisers Leeds arrive as the form side
On 9 August 2026 Sunrisers Leeds beat Welsh Fire by 71 runs, posting 201 for 4 with Mitchell Marsh making 50. That is an innings shape that travels: a big total built without losing the top order, then a margin wide enough that the bowling was never under pressure.
They had also beaten Birmingham Phoenix on 7 August 2026. That makes this their third match in five days, a real consideration for the bowlers, though momentum in a competition this short tends to outweigh rest.
They have also already solved this opponent. On 28 July 2026 at Headingley they chased Manchester Super Giants down with 8 wickets and 12 balls in hand, which is not a narrow result.
Key matchups: Buttler's anchor role against Marsh's momentum
Jos Buttler vs the new ball: his 55 not out from 37 balls on 31 July 2026 was controlled batting on a surface giving little away. The question is whether anyone goes with him, because 137 for 3 was the outcome last time he anchored here.
Mitchell Marsh vs the middle overs: he made 50 in the 71-run win on 9 August 2026 and is the batter Sunrisers Leeds build around. Manchester Super Giants need him gone early or the total climbs past what this ground has recently defended.
Paul Walter vs the death overs: his 64 on 8 August 2026 came at exactly the point Manchester Super Giants have tended to stall. That role is the difference between a total this ground defends and one it does not, and that gap is the whole match.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
These two have met once before in the 2026 competition. On 28 July 2026 at Headingley, Manchester Super Giants made 181 for 3 and Sunrisers Leeds chased it down at 186 for 2, winning by 8 wickets with 12 balls to spare.
That is a useful reference rather than a decisive one. Manchester Super Giants posted a total that wins most games in this competition and still lost with two overs unused, which says more about how well Sunrisers Leeds batted than how badly the home side bowled.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Emirates Old Trafford, Manchester is a true surface where the new ball comes on and the pitch slows later. It rewards batters who get in, and modest totals have not survived here.
- Pitch: Good bounce early, gripping later. The 31 July 2026 game here finished 137 for 3 against 140 for 4, a low-scoring night that the chasing side still controlled.
- Weather: Dry and warm is expected for the evening, with no meaningful rain risk in the forecast window.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first โ chasing has carried the edge at this ground in this competition, and the evening start favours batting second. Our toss prediction page for this match lays out the chase-rate context in full.
Match Analysis: Where This Match Will Be Won and Lost
This game turns on whichever side bats first getting past par. Manchester Super Giants made 137 for 3 here on 31 July 2026 and were comfortably chased; they made 181 for 3 at Headingley on 28 July 2026 and were chased with 12 balls to spare. Two good totals, two defeats, and both times the bowling had nothing to protect late.
Sunrisers Leeds have the opposite profile. Their 201 for 4 on 9 August 2026 is the kind of score that takes the toss out of the equation.
Hold Sunrisers Leeds to a modest total and this is an even contest. Let them build another big one and the recent evidence here says the chase is the harder job.
Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds Prediction: Sunrisers Leeds by a narrow margin
We make it Sunrisers Leeds at 55.4%, Manchester Super Giants at 44.6%. Rounded, that is a 55% call and a close one. The visitors have beaten this opponent already, they are scoring the bigger totals, and the ground's recent pattern suits the side batting second.
It is close enough that the batting order matters. Manchester Super Giants batting first widens the gap against them; fielding first narrows it to almost nothing. At 1.85 the visitors sit marginally above our fair price, so this is a small-stakes lean.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Super Giants | 44.6% | 47.9% | 2.00 | 2.24 |
| Sunrisers Leeds | 55.4% | 52.1% | 1.85 | 1.81 |
Marginal value on Sunrisers Leeds. At 1.85 against our fair 1.81 the edge is real but small, which makes this a small-stakes play rather than a confident one. Manchester Super Giants at 2.00 sit short of our fair 2.24, so the home side is the weaker of the two prices. If you want a livelier angle on this game, the toss is where the movement is. Odds captured on 9 August 2026.
Our model is 3 points above the market on Sunrisers Leeds. Here's why. The market has this fixture closer than we do, and we think it is underweighting three things. Sunrisers Leeds have already beaten this opponent in 2026, at Headingley on 28 July, by 8 wickets with 12 balls unused. They then produced 201 for 4 on 9 August 2026, a total well clear of anything either side has posted at this ground this season. And the ground itself has favoured the chasing team in this competition, which points the same way our toss call does.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds in The Hundred 2026?
Our AI model predicts Sunrisers Leeds to beat Manchester Super Giants with 55.4% probability at Emirates Old Trafford on 11 August 2026. Sunrisers Leeds won the only previous meeting between the two in 2026, by 8 wickets at Headingley on 28 July.
What is the toss prediction for Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds?
Field first. Chasing has carried the edge at Old Trafford in The Hundred, and the 6:30pm BST start on 11 August 2026 favours batting second. Expect the toss winner to bowl.
What are the odds for Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds?
Sunrisers Leeds are 1.85 and Manchester Super Giants are 2.00 for this 11 August 2026 fixture. Our fair odds are 1.81 and 2.24 respectively, so Sunrisers Leeds carry a marginal edge and Manchester Super Giants do not.
How does the toss affect Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds?
By about three points either way. If Sunrisers Leeds bat first, Manchester Super Giants rise to 47.6%. If Manchester Super Giants bat first, they fall to 41.6%. Chasing has been the better job at this ground in this competition.
What happened when Manchester Super Giants played Sunrisers Leeds on 28 July 2026?
Sunrisers Leeds won by 8 wickets at Headingley. Manchester Super Giants made 181 for 3 and Sunrisers Leeds reached 186 for 2, finishing with 12 balls to spare.
What is the pitch like at Emirates Old Trafford?
It is a true surface with good early bounce that slows as the innings goes on. The 31 July 2026 game there ended 137 for 3 against 140 for 4, with Trent Rockets chasing successfully by 6 wickets.