The Hundred 2026
Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips
MSG Manchester Super Giants
SUN Sunrisers Leeds
The Kia Oval, Londonยท
๐ฏ 17/32 100 predictions correctโก Key Takeaways
- โข Sunrisers Leeds predicted to win with 52% probability
- โข Three teams finished the group on 20 points; net run rate alone sent MI London home
- โข These two met on 11 August 2026 and Manchester Super Giants won by 10 wickets
- โข Field first: captains at this ground overwhelmingly choose to chase in The Hundred
- โข Whoever chases gains roughly seven points, so the toss moves this more than the teamsheet
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Bowl first โ 62% chase win rate at The Kia Oval, London
Sunrisers Leeds value moves with the batting order.
- If Jos Buttler is unavailable at the toss, the Super Giants lose their captain and their keeper in one line, and we would move roughly 4 points toward Sunrisers Leeds
- If the surface looks dry enough to hold spin, Noor Ahmad and Liam Dawson give the Super Giants the better middle-overs pair and we would move about 3 points their way
- If either side drifts beyond its fair mark, 2.08 for Manchester and 1.92 for Sunrisers Leeds, the value described below changes side and the chasing team becomes the play regardless of who that is
Our AI model gives Sunrisers Leeds a 52% chance of reaching Lord's. Three sides finished the group stage on 20 points; two are here, and the third, MI London, is already home. Manchester Super Giants arrive as the higher seed on the better net run rate.
Can the Super Giants repeat that ten-wicket win?
The Super Giants finished second, and they earned it in the only currency that separated the top four. Their net run rate of +0.791 was the best in the competition, better than the Trent Rockets side that finished top on points. They won five of eight.
Their most recent evidence is the loudest in the fixture. On 11 August 2026 they beat Sunrisers Leeds by ten wickets, a chase completed without losing a batter, three days before the two sides meet again. That is why the market will not make the Yorkshire side a favourite.
The top order is why. Jos Buttler captains and keeps, with Tim Seifert and Heinrich Klaasen also listed as wicketkeeper-batters in an 18-man squad. Michael Bracewell and Liam Dawson give the middle order two allrounders who bowl in the phases that decide 100-ball cricket.
Why Sunrisers Leeds Are Still Our Pick Despite Losing the Last One
Sunrisers Leeds finished third on 20 points with a net run rate of +0.603, the same 5-3 record as the teams either side of them. They are here because MI London matched them on points and finished on +0.241, and nothing else separated the two.
Our model rates them ahead on the body of work rather than the last match, and that is the whole disagreement here. The ten-wicket defeat on 11 August is already inside our numbers and they still come out in front. One result, however emphatic, is one match of eight.
Zak Crawley captains, Ryan Rickelton keeps wicket, and the 17-man squad carries Mitchell Marsh, Harry Brook and Dan Lawrence in the top order with Brydon Carse, Nathan Ellis, Reece Topley and Abrar Ahmed sharing the bowling.
Key Matchups: where the 100 balls turn
Jos Buttler vs Brydon Carse and Reece Topley: the new ball at The Kia Oval is the one window where a bowling side gets ahead. Buttler captains and keeps, so removing him early costs Manchester Super Giants twice, and Sunrisers Leeds have two front-line quicks to try it.
Harry Brook vs Noor Ahmad: Brook is a specialist batter in the Sunrisers Leeds squad, Noor Ahmad a bowler for Manchester Super Giants. Wrist spin through the middle is the answer to a batter who scores square, and the short boundaries here make it a real contest.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
They have met twice in The Hundred 2026 and taken one each. Sunrisers Leeds won by 8 wickets on 28 July 2026. Manchester Super Giants won by 10 wickets on 11 August 2026. Both were comfortable, which tells you these sides tend to beat each other properly rather than narrowly, and it is a large part of why a 52-48 split is an honest read of a fixture this even.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
The Kia Oval, London โ capacity 27,500. Short square boundaries and a quick outfield make it one of England's better batting grounds, and in the 100-ball format it has leaned to the side chasing.
- Pitch: flat and true, and first-innings totals in The Hundred here have tended to settle in the mid-140s
- Weather: London sits in the low thirties on 14 August 2026 with only a slim chance of rain, so a full game is close to certain
- Toss: field first. Captains here overwhelmingly choose to chase in this competition, and the ground's Hundred results favour the side batting second. Our MSG vs SUN toss prediction shows why this venue leans one way.
Match Analysis: where this match is won and lost
The first ten balls of each innings decide more here than anywhere else in the competition. A flat surface with 66 to 70 metre square boundaries rewards the side that survives the opening burst with wickets in hand, because the acceleration afterwards is close to free.
The middle phase belongs to spin, and the squads differ there. The Super Giants list Noor Ahmad, Liam Dawson and Tom Hartley as spin options; Sunrisers Leeds counter with Abrar Ahmed and Liam Patterson-White. If the pitch offers grip, the deeper spin group can bowl ten balls of pressure without leaking a boundary.
The last twenty-five balls are the risk on our own pick. The Super Giants have the more destructive finishing options on paper, and at a ground this small that matters. It is the scenario where a 52% call looks generous by the end of the evening.
Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds Prediction: Sunrisers Leeds by a Whisker
We make it Sunrisers Leeds at 52%, two points clear of an even market rather than a real disagreement with it. Take it as a lean, not a conviction. The season-long body of work has Sunrisers Leeds marginally ahead, the most recent match had Manchester Super Giants ten wickets ahead, and the truth sits between those two things.
The more useful call is about batting order, and it turns on whichever side bats first. Chasing is worth roughly seven points to whoever does it, so waiting for the toss buys a better price on better information.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Super Giants | 48% | 50.0% | 1.92 | 2.08 |
| Sunrisers Leeds | 52% | 50.0% | 1.92 | 1.92 |
The winner market has this about right. At 1.92 each way the price sits level with our fair odds on Sunrisers Leeds and inside them on Manchester Super Giants. The edge appears once the batting order is known: our numbers put the chasing side at 59% or 55%, and 1.92 is a generous price against either. Wait for the coin, then take whoever fields first. Odds captured on 13 August 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds in The Hundred 2026 Eliminator?
Our AI model predicts Sunrisers Leeds to win with 52% probability, against 48% for Manchester Super Giants, in the Eliminator at The Kia Oval on 14 August 2026. Sunrisers Leeds rate marginally ahead across the full group stage, though Manchester Super Giants beat them by ten wickets on 11 August 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds?
Field first. Captains at The Kia Oval overwhelmingly choose to chase in The Hundred, and the ground's results in this competition favour the side batting second. Whichever side wins the toss should put the other in.
What are the odds for Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds?
Both sides are available at 1.92 for the Eliminator on 14 August 2026. Our fair odds are 2.08 on Manchester Super Giants and 1.92 on Sunrisers Leeds, so the winner market is priced about right before the toss. The chasing side is where our numbers see the better price afterwards.
How does the toss affect Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds?
Considerably. If Manchester Super Giants bat first, our model moves Sunrisers Leeds to 59%. If Sunrisers Leeds bat first, they fall to 45%. That seven-point swing reflects how strongly The Kia Oval favours the chasing side in The Hundred, and it makes the batting order the single largest known variable in this Eliminator.
Why did MI London miss the play-offs in The Hundred 2026?
Net run rate. MI London finished on 20 points with a 5-3 record, exactly the same as Manchester Super Giants and Sunrisers Leeds, but their net run rate of +0.241 trailed Manchester Super Giants on +0.791 and Sunrisers Leeds on +0.603. Only the top three of that group of four survived.
Who do the winners play in The Hundred 2026 Final?
Trent Rockets. They finished top of the group on 24 points with a +0.740 net run rate and go straight through, so the winner of Manchester Super Giants against Sunrisers Leeds meets them in the Final at Lord's on 16 August 2026.
What is the pitch like at The Kia Oval for The Hundred?
Flat and fast-scoring. First-innings totals in The Hundred at The Kia Oval have tended to settle in the mid-140s, the square boundaries run 66 to 70 metres, and the outfield is quick. Results lean toward the side batting second in this competition.