ICC Cricket World Cup League 2
Scotland vs Canada Prediction & Betting Tips
SCO Scotland
CAN Canada
Forthill, Dundee·
🎯 290/499 predictions correct⚡ Key Takeaways
- • Scotland predicted to win with 71.6% probability
- • These two met on this ground on 7 August and Scotland won by 9 runs: 281 for 7 against 272 all out
- • Finlay McCreath made 112 that day, and Yuvraj Samra answered with 78 from 65 balls for Canada
- • Field first. Around 64% of captains bowl first in this format, and Scotland rise to 75.6% when they chase
- • Rain has already wiped out two matches of this Dundee block, and showers build through the afternoon
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Bowl first — toss winners field 75% of the time at Forthill, Dundee
How batting order moves the Scotland number.
- If rain shortens this to a reduced-overs contest, the gap narrows: fewer overs give the stronger side fewer chances to press its advantage
- If Canada bat first and post 281 again, Scotland's chase becomes live rather than routine
- If Scotland are inserted, drop roughly 4 points from our headline number
Our AI model predicts Scotland to win this ICC Cricket World Cup League 2 fixture with 71.6% probability, and yet the last meeting between these sides on this ground finished with 9 runs in it. They return to the same square at Forthill on 13 August 2026.
Why Scotland are favourites without being comfortable
Scotland have won both of their completed matches in this Dundee block, and neither was straightforward. They beat Canada by 9 runs on 7 August after posting 281 for 7, then hauled down the UAE's 231 for 8 two days later, finishing on 235 for 9 to win by 1 wicket.
The batting has a clear shape. Finlay McCreath made 112 from 140 balls against Canada, an innings that carried the total. Matthew Cross top-scored with 66 in that chase, and Michael Jones made 36 against Canada and 44 against the UAE. Richie Berrington captains the side.
Scotland have won both of their completed matches in this block: by 9 runs against Canada on 7 August, and by 1 wicket against the UAE on 9 August.
Can Canada turn 272 into a winning score?
Canada's week has swung hard. They lost by 9 runs to Scotland on 7 August, then lost to the UAE by 97 runs on 11 August. The first was a contest. The second was not.
The encouraging part for Saad Bin Zafar's side is what happened here six days ago. Replying to 281 for 7, Canada were bowled out for 272 in 49.2 overs. Yuvraj Samra struck 78 from 65 balls with 8 fours and 4 sixes. Canada still finished nine runs short.
The gap in the odds is real. The gap in the last actual match between these two was 9 runs.
Key matchups: where nine runs came from last time
Finlay McCreath vs Canada's new ball: McCreath made 112 from 140 balls on 7 August, the innings that carried Scotland to 281 for 7. Canada never separated him early enough, and the hundred was built before the game turned. Removing him inside the first fifteen overs is the biggest single lever they have.
Yuvraj Samra vs Scotland's middle overs: Samra struck 78 from 65 balls with 8 fours and 4 sixes in the reply, which is the tempo Canada need again. Scotland squeezed the passages either side of him and Canada were bowled out for 272 in 49.2.
Matthew Cross and Michael Jones vs the middle overs: Cross top-scored with 66 in the 9 August chase, which Scotland won by 1 wicket in 39.5 overs. Jones made 36 against Canada on 7 August and 44 against the UAE on 9 August. Canada have to find a way through that pair before the closing overs.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
These two met on this ground six days ago. Scotland made 281 for 7 from their 50 overs, Canada were bowled out for 272 in 49.2, and Scotland won by 9 runs.
The margin is the number worth holding onto. A 9-run result, with Canada batting into the 50th over chasing, says the cricket between these two has been closer than a 1.40 favourite implies.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Forthill, Dundee is Scotland's northern one-day home and has hosted this whole tri-series block. It has been a fair surface: 281 for 7 was defended here on 7 August and 231 for 8 was chased down on 9 August, so neither innings has owned the ground.
- Pitch: True enough for big scores: Scotland made 281 for 7 here on 7 August and the UAE posted 231 for 8 on 9 August. The new ball gets early assistance under cloud.
- Weather: Overcast, near 21°C at the start and topping out around 25°C. Rain risk climbs through the day, from under 10% at the first ball to roughly a third by late afternoon, with drizzle possible mid-innings. The 3 August match at this ground was abandoned without a result.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — showers build through the afternoon, and with no venue toss record to argue otherwise the fifty-over norm of bowling first applies, keeping any revised target in your own hands. We have published our pre-toss call for SCO vs CAN on the toss prediction page.
Match analysis: where this one will be won and lost
The first ten overs decide more here than they usually do. Both matches completed here, on 7 and 9 August, saw the new ball do something under cloud, and the sky on 13 August is forecast to stay grey.
The second lever is the middle overs, and that is where the 7 August match was settled. Canada's chase never lost touch with the rate, but Scotland's control through that phase forced Canada into the risks that decided it.
The third factor is the weather, and it is not a footnote. This block has already lost a match to the weather, and a shortened game compresses the difference between the favourite and the underdog.
Scotland vs Canada prediction: closer than the odds suggest
Our model settles on Scotland at 71.6%, which rounds to a 72% chance, and the market has landed in almost the same place. The pick is Scotland, with the caveat that their last two wins came by 9 runs and 1 wicket.
The cleaner angle is conditional. If Canada bat first, our number moves to 75.6% and the available 1.40 turns into a 5.8% edge. If Scotland bat first it drops to 67.6% and the price is simply fair. The batting order, decided at the toss, is worth more than four points of probability here.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 71.6% | 68.9% | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Canada | 28.4% | 31.1% | 3.10 | 3.52 |
The match-winner market is priced at our number. Scotland's available price matches our fair price exactly, and the market sits 2.7 points below us on the same side, so the books and our model broadly agree. Canada's price is short of what our probability asks for. The live angle is the batting order: our Canada-bat-first scenario lifts Scotland to 75.6% and a fair 1.32, turning 1.40 into a 5.8% edge. Odds captured on 12 August 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Scotland vs Canada in the ICC Cricket World Cup League 2?
Our model predicts Scotland to beat Canada with 71.6% probability in the ICC Cricket World Cup League 2 match at Forthill, Dundee on 13 August 2026. Scotland won the sides' most recent meeting on this ground by 9 runs on 7 August, defending 281 for 7 as Canada were bowled out for 272.
What is the toss prediction for Scotland vs Canada?
Field first. Around 64% of captains choose to bowl first in fifty-over cricket, and Forthill has no measured toss-decision record of its own to argue against that norm. With rain risk rising through the afternoon in Dundee on 13 August 2026, bowling first also keeps any revised target under the fielding side's control.
What are the best odds for Scotland vs Canada?
The best available price is 1.40 on Scotland and 3.10 on Canada for the ICC Cricket World Cup League 2 match on 13 August 2026. Our fair odds are 1.40 and 3.52, so Scotland is priced at our own number, while Canada's price sits short of fair. Odds captured on 12 August 2026.
How does the toss affect Scotland vs Canada?
The batting order is worth about four percentage points either way in this Scotland vs Canada match at Forthill. If Canada bat first, Scotland's win probability rises to 75.6% and the 1.40 price carries a 5.8% edge. If Scotland bat first, their probability falls to 67.6% and 1.40 becomes a fair rather than a value price.
What happened when Scotland played Canada on 7 August 2026?
Scotland beat Canada by 9 runs at Forthill, Dundee on 7 August 2026. Scotland made 281 for 7 from 50 overs with Finlay McCreath scoring 112 from 140 balls, and Canada were bowled out for 272 in 49.2 overs, with Yuvraj Samra top-scoring on 78 from 65 balls.
Will rain affect Scotland vs Canada at Forthill?
It is a live risk. The forecast for Dundee on 13 August 2026 is overcast throughout, with rain probability climbing from under 10% at the 3:30 PM IST start to roughly a third by late afternoon and drizzle possible mid-innings. The 3 August match in this Dundee block was abandoned without a result.