Wellington vs Auckland Match 11 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Pick: Auckland to win, at 63.3%.
Auckland
Wellington 37%
Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 80%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Pick: Auckland to win, at 63.3%.
- • Toss call: Field first, at 80%. Our full pre-toss call for this match is on the dedicated toss page.
- • Key fact: Auckland beat Central Districts by 74 runs at Saxton Oval, Nelson (4 November 2026).
- • Value: Auckland's fair odds are 1.58, and Dafabet had them at 1.57 at 22:23 IST (6 November).
We back Auckland, at 63.3%.
In the Ford Trophy 2026-27, Auckland have beaten Canterbury (28 October 2026), Northern Districts (31 October 2026) and Central Districts (4 November 2026).
Auckland's first meeting of the season with Wellington, in Wellington, starts at 3:00 am IST (8 November 2026).
Auckland travel without Dale Phillips and Adithya Ashok, who are in New Zealand A's squad for the four-day match against India A from 7 November 2026.
Which team is stronger, Wellington or Auckland?
Auckland, on this season's results. Auckland made 361 for 5 against Canterbury at Eden Park Outer Oval (28 October 2026) and won by 33 runs on the DLS method.
Sean Solia made 120 off 119 balls for Auckland in that innings. Dale Phillips made 112 off 95 balls for Auckland in the same innings.
Angus Olliver took 3 for 23 for Auckland when Northern Districts were all out for 167 at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui (31 October 2026).
Auckland reached 170 for 6 in 33.2 overs in reply and won by four wickets (31 October 2026).
Auckland then made 357 for 7 against Central Districts at Saxton Oval, Nelson (4 November 2026). Cam Fletcher made 72 off 87 balls for Auckland in that innings.
Adithya Ashok took 3 for 53 for Auckland as Central Districts were all out for 283 in Nelson, and Auckland won by 74 runs (4 November 2026).
Dale Phillips made 106 off 108 balls for Auckland against Central Districts in Nelson (4 November 2026). With Dale Phillips and Adithya Ashok now with New Zealand A, Auckland need those runs and wickets from others.
Wellington's form is mixed. Otago bowled Wellington out for 213 at the Basin Reserve (29 October 2026) and won by six wickets.
Canterbury then made 350 for 5 against Wellington in Wellington (31 October 2026). Wellington were all out for 141 in reply and lost by 209 runs.
Wellington answered with 354 for 7 against Northern Districts in Wellington (4 November 2026). Muhammad Abbas made 84 off 78 balls for Wellington in that innings.
Oscar Jackson made 71 off 62 balls for Wellington against Northern Districts (4 November 2026). Jesse Tashkoff added 51 off 59 balls for Wellington in the same innings.
Logan van Beek then took 4 for 31 for Wellington as Northern Districts were all out for 152, and Wellington won by 202 runs (4 November 2026).
Key matchups: Fletcher against van Beek, Abbas against Olliver
Cam Fletcher against Logan van Beek. Cam Fletcher made 100 off 102 balls for Auckland against Wellington in Wellington (12 November 2025), and Auckland won that game by 54 runs.
Logan van Beek took 4 for 31 in seven overs for Wellington against Northern Districts (4 November 2026). His spell against Cam Fletcher shapes Auckland's total.
Muhammad Abbas against Angus Olliver. Muhammad Abbas made 53 not out off 80 balls for Wellington when they beat Auckland by five wickets at Eden Park Outer Oval (10 February 2026).
Angus Olliver took 3 for 23 for Auckland against Northern Districts at Bay Oval (31 October 2026). Angus Olliver also took 2 for 40 for Auckland against Central Districts in Nelson (4 November 2026).
Wellington vs Auckland head to head
Wellington
3
Auckland
1
Their four most recent Ford Trophy meetings, 23 October 2024 to 10 February 2026
Wellington won the latest meeting by five wickets in February 2026, and Auckland won by 54 runs in Wellington in November 2025.
Wellington vs Auckland pitch report: Basin Reserve, Wellington
A batting pitch, where the side batting first made 354 for 7 and 350 for 5 this season.
Three Ford Trophy games at the ground, 29 October to 4 November 2026
Wellington 354 for 7 · Northern Districts all out for 152 in 35.1 overs, Wellington by 202 runs.
Canterbury 350 for 5 · Wellington all out for 141 in 32.2 overs, Canterbury by 209 runs.
Wellington all out for 213 · Otago 214 for 4 in 37.1 overs, Otago by 6 wickets.
A light shower around the start, then partly cloudy and dry, about 17°C, with wind of about 36 km/h. Forecast read 6 November, 22:17 IST.
Northern Districts won the toss and chose to bowl in Wellington (4 November 2026), then lost by 202 runs.
Wellington vs Auckland prediction: we back Auckland at 63%
We back Auckland, 63.3%, with the market at 59.9%.
Our model is 3.4 points above the market on Auckland. Auckland made 361 for 5 against Canterbury (28 October 2026). Auckland then made 357 for 7 against Central Districts (4 November 2026).
Wellington's answer is the head-to-head record. Wellington beat Auckland by five wickets at Eden Park Outer Oval (10 February 2026), the sides' most recent Ford Trophy meeting.
Dafabet had Auckland at 1.57 at 22:23 IST (6 November), just under our fair 1.58, so the match-winner market has this about right and the toss call is the sharper angle.
What decides Wellington vs Auckland
- The toss. We expect the toss winner to bowl, at 80%, as Wellington did when they won the toss against Canterbury (31 October 2026).
- The weather. A light shower is forecast around the 3:00 am IST start, then partly cloudy, dry skies for the rest of the day.
- Nick Greenwood's spell. Nick Greenwood took 3 for 24 in 10 overs for Wellington against Auckland at Eden Park Outer Oval (10 February 2026).
- Oscar Jackson's hitting. Oscar Jackson made 57 off 27 balls for Wellington against Auckland (10 February 2026).
Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington | 36.7% | 40.1% | 2.35 | 2.72 |
| Auckland | 63.3% | 59.9% | 1.57 | 1.58 |
The match-winner market is efficiently priced. Dafabet had Auckland at 1.57 and Wellington at 2.35 at 22:23 IST (6 November).
Auckland's 1.57 sits just under our fair odds of 1.58, and Wellington's 2.35 under our 2.72, so the toss call is the angle to play here. Odds captured on 6 November 2026.
Ford Trophy
Wellington vs Auckland odds
8 Nov 2026 · 03:00 IST
Match winner: Wellington 2.35, Auckland 1.57 at Dafabet; checked 23:45 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1WELL | 2AUCK | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Wellington 2.35 | 2 · Auckland 1.57 | Payout94.1% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Wellington vs Auckland in the Ford Trophy?
Auckland. Our AI model gives them a 63.3% chance against Wellington at the Basin Reserve (8 November 2026). Auckland beat Canterbury (28 October 2026), Northern Districts (31 October 2026) and Central Districts (4 November 2026) in the Ford Trophy, though Dale Phillips and Adithya Ashok are away with New Zealand A.
What is the toss prediction for Wellington vs Auckland?
Field first, at 80%. Northern Districts won the toss and chose to bowl against Wellington at the Basin Reserve (4 November 2026). Wellington won the toss and chose to bowl against Canterbury in Wellington (31 October 2026). Otago won the toss and bowled against Wellington in Wellington (29 October 2026).
What are the odds for Wellington vs Auckland?
Dafabet had Auckland at 1.57 and Wellington at 2.35 at 22:23 IST (6 November). Our fair odds are 1.58 for Auckland and 2.72 for Wellington, so both prices sit just under our numbers and the match-winner market is efficiently priced for this Ford Trophy game.
Is the Basin Reserve a batting or bowling pitch?
A batting pitch. Wellington made 354 for 7 batting first against Northern Districts in Wellington (4 November 2026) and won by 202 runs. Canterbury made 350 for 5 batting first against Wellington in Wellington (31 October 2026) and won by 209 runs.
When did Wellington and Auckland last play each other in the Ford Trophy?
On 10 February 2026 at Eden Park Outer Oval in Auckland, when Wellington beat Auckland by five wickets. Auckland made 240 for 8 in 50 overs. Wellington then made 243 for 5 in 43.5 overs, with Muhammad Abbas unbeaten on 53 for Wellington.
What time does Wellington vs Auckland start?
At 3:00 am IST on 8 November 2026. The Basin Reserve in Wellington hosts the 11th match of the Ford Trophy 2026-27, the first meeting of the season between Wellington and Auckland. It is a day game in New Zealand, and a light shower is forecast around the start.
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