Dolphins vs Northern Cape Toss Prediction
CSA T20 Challenge 2026 · Pool A · Wednesday, 30 September 2026 · 16:00 UTC (18:00 local) · Kingsmead, Durban
Toss prediction from ground record and start time
What will the toss winner choose?
Bowl first · 68% field-first
Bowl first — an evening start brings dew into the second innings. Our model puts the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 68%.
- Based on
- Ground record and start time
- Tosses at this ground
- 34
- Chose to field
- 50.0%
- Period
- 2007–2024
Graded automatically once the toss is published. The result is recorded on this page either way.
What we looked at
- Split at this ground. 17 of 34 toss winners have fielded at Kingsmead in 2007–2024.(points neither way)
- Dew is coming. Evening start (18:00 local) with 70% humidity: the ball gets harder to grip in the second innings, so bowl first and chase.(points to bowling first)
- Forecast: 19°C · humidity 70% · partly cloudy.(points neither way)
- Chasing wins about half the time here (15 of 33).(points neither way)
- Our call: bowl first — 68%. Weighs this ground's toss record and the start time. Graded against the real toss and shown on our public ledger.(points to bowling first)
Cyan dots point to bowling first, amber to batting first, grey to neither.
Last 10 tosses at Kingsmead
| Date | Toss winner | Chose | Match winner | Chased? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-10 | South Africa | Bat | South Africa | No |
| 2024-11-08 | South Africa | Field | India | No |
| 2023-09-03 | South Africa | Bat | Australia | Yes |
| 2023-09-01 | Australia | Field | Australia | Yes |
| 2023-08-30 | South Africa | Field | Australia | No |
| 2020-02-14 | South Africa | Field | England | No |
| 2016-03-04 | Australia | Bat | South Africa | Yes |
| 2015-08-14 | South Africa | Field | South Africa | Yes |
| 2015-01-14 | West Indies | Field | South Africa | No |
| 2014-03-12 | Australia | Field | Australia | Yes |
Men's T20 matches only, newest first, from ball-by-ball records.
What each side tends to do
Neither side has won a toss in our men's T20 data yet, so this call weighs this ground's toss record and the start time.
Does the toss matter at Kingsmead?
In 33 decided men's T20 matches here, the side batting second won 15 (45.5%).
Start: 16:00 UTC · 18:00 local time (evening match).
Forecast at the start: 19°C · humidity 70% · partly cloudy
Weather from MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), fetched 2026-09-28 18:07 UTC. Shown for context; the forecast is not part of the number.
How this DOL vs NCH toss prediction is made
We do not predict who wins the coin — that is 50/50. We predict what the winner will choose. We weigh how often captains at this ground have chosen to field, what each side has chosen when it won the toss (recent seasons count most), and the start time — an evening start brings dew, which pushes captains to bowl first. Each is weighed against the men's T20 average (61%) so that a handful of matches can never produce an extreme number. For this match we had this ground's toss record and the start time.
A fair word on what this is and is not: it is a probability, not a certainty. A call near 50% means the choice really is close. Every call here is checked in public once the toss decision is published.
Full method, dew and captaincy context: the data behind our toss calls.
DOL vs NCH toss prediction FAQ
What is the DOL vs NCH toss prediction?
Bowl first — an evening start brings dew into the second innings. Our model puts the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 68%. We predict the decision, not the coin: whoever wins the toss, this is what we expect them to do.
Does winning the toss matter at Kingsmead?
In 33 decided men's T20 matches at Kingsmead in our data, the side batting second won 15 (45.5%). The toss sets which side gets that choice; it does not decide the match.
How is this toss prediction made?
We weigh three things: how often captains at this ground have chosen to field, what each side has chosen when it won the toss (recent seasons count most), and the start time — an evening start brings dew, which pushes captains to bowl first. Each is weighed against the men's T20 average (61%) so that a small sample cannot produce an extreme number. The result is added after the toss and stays on this page.
What happened at the toss?
The toss has not happened yet. When it has, the result is recorded here against the call above.
More toss predictions
More toss predictions today →·This call is graded in our public toss record →
Last updated: 2026-09-28. Published 2026-09-28.
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