Karnali Yaks vs Kathmandu Gorkhas Match 10 Prediction & Betting Tips

Karnali Yaks are our pick at 56.2%.

Our AI model gives Karnali Yaks a 56.2% chance against Kathmandu Gorkhas in the 10th Match of the Nepal Premier League 2026, at Kirtipur on 2 November 2026. Karnali have beaten Janakpur Bolts and Biratnagar Kings this season. Kathmandu lost to Janakpur by 8 wickets on 29 October 2026, but they beat Karnali at this ground on 4 December 2024 and 30 November 2025.

Can Sompal Kami keep Karnali Yaks winning against Kathmandu?

Karnali Yaks beat Janakpur Bolts by 19 runs on 27 October 2026. Janakpur won the toss and fielded, and Karnali made 132 for 9. Janakpur were then bowled out for 113 in 19.3 overs.

Unish Thakuri was player of the match against Janakpur on 27 October 2026, taking 3 for 22. Hussain Talat took 3 for 26 in the same game, so the two shared six wickets.

Biratnagar Kings made 186 for 7 against Karnali on 29 October 2026. Karnali replied with 187 for 6 and won by 4 wickets with one ball to spare. Sompal Kami took 4 for 33 against Biratnagar in that game.

Kami then made an unbeaten 62 from 32 balls in the chase and was player of the match. Ariful Islam, who opens the batting, scored 43 from 29 balls against Janakpur on 27 October 2026. Ariful followed that with 32 from 12 balls against Biratnagar on 29 October 2026.

Karnali ended their 2025 season with a 3-run win over Janakpur on 7 December 2025. They defended 129 for 9 that night.

Can Kathmandu Gorkhas bounce back after their Janakpur defeat?

Kathmandu Gorkhas won the toss and chose to bat against Janakpur Bolts on 29 October 2026, in the day game. They were all out for 115 in 19.3 overs. Janakpur reached 116 for 2 with 16 balls to spare and won by 8 wickets.

Bhim Sharki made 33 from 29 balls in that innings, the top score for Kathmandu. Rashid Khan made 17 from 14 balls in the same innings. Karan KC captained the side and made 8 from 18 balls.

Kathmandu used nine bowlers as Janakpur knocked off the runs. Rashid bowled just one over, for 5 runs, so his workload on 2 November 2026 is one to watch.

Kathmandu's 2025 season ended in the Eliminator on 10 December 2025. They chose to bat against Lumbini Lions and were all out for 111. Lumbini made 112 for 6 and won by 4 wickets with 14 balls to spare.

Key matchups: Sompal Kami against Kathmandu's batting, Ariful Islam against Rashid Khan

Sompal Kami against Kathmandu's top order: Kami took 4 for 33 against Biratnagar on 29 October 2026. Kathmandu were bowled out for 115 earlier that day, so early wickets from Karnali's captain would test them again.

Unish Thakuri and Hussain Talat against Bhim Sharki: Thakuri and Talat took six wickets between them against Janakpur on 27 October 2026. Sharki was the top scorer for Kathmandu against Janakpur two days later, and they need a longer innings from him.

Ariful Islam against Rashid Khan: Ariful scored 32 from 12 balls against Biratnagar on 29 October 2026. Rashid bowled one over against Janakpur the same day, so how much Kathmandu use him against Karnali's openers could decide the powerplay.

Match analysis: where Karnali Yaks vs Kathmandu Gorkhas will be won and lost

Karnali's bowlers set this up. Janakpur were all out for 113 against them on 27 October 2026. Two days later Biratnagar posted 186 for 7, and Karnali still got home in the last over, with Sompal Kami unbeaten on 62.

Kathmandu's batting is the question. They were all out for 115 against Janakpur, and Bhim Sharki made 33 of those runs. Against this Karnali attack, Kathmandu need a stand through the middle overs, not another collapse.

The toss matters in a day game with a 12:15 pm IST start. Janakpur and then Karnali fielded on winning the toss in Karnali's games on 27 and 29 October 2026, while Kathmandu batted when they won it. If Kathmandu win it and bat again, Karnali chase, as they did against Biratnagar.

The head-to-head gives Kathmandu something to lean on. They won at Kirtipur on 4 December 2024 and again on 30 November 2025, both times with Karnali batting first. The price sits closer to even than our 56% does.

Karnali Yaks vs Kathmandu Gorkhas prediction: Karnali at 56.2%, with the toss as the angle

We back Karnali Yaks at 56.2%. Their captain, Sompal Kami, was player of the match against Biratnagar on 29 October 2026, and their attack bowled Janakpur out for 113 on 27 October 2026. Kathmandu need a far better batting day than their 115 all out.

Karnali's 1.78 matches our fair odds of 1.78, so the match-winner market is fairly priced. The toss is the angle, and we expect the toss winner to field first, at 60%.