Pakistan vs England Match 4 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
England predicted to win with 55.1% probability
England
Pakistan 45%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We expect the toss winner to field.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • England predicted to win with 55.1% probability
- • Pakistan beat England by 87 runs at Rawalpindi on 20 October 2026, with Arafat Minhas taking 6 for 40
- • England made 429 for 4 against Sri Lanka (22 October) and still lost by two wickets
- • Toss call: Field first — all three toss winners in this tri-series have chosen to bowl
- • Value sits with Pakistan, where a price of 2.32 beats our fair 2.23 by about 4%
England are favourites, but Pakistan offer value.
Our AI model predicts England to beat Pakistan with a 55.1% win probability in the 4th match of the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series, at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore on Sunday 25 October 2026 (1:30 pm IST, 08:00 UTC). The market has England at 56.2%. Pakistan won the first meeting of this tri-series by 87 runs, and the price on Pakistan carries value.
Can Pakistan beat England twice in five days?
Pakistan have won both their games in this tri-series, against Sri Lanka (18 October) and England (20 October). In the England game at Rawalpindi, England won the toss and chose to bowl, and Pakistan made 302 for 9 in their 50 overs. Hasan Nawaz top-scored with 79 off 74 balls.
Arafat Minhas added 59 off 58 with the bat. He then took 6 for 40 in 8.4 overs as England were bowled out for 215 in 38.4 overs. Arafat Minhas dismissed Tom Banton for 57 and bowled Harry Brook for 5, and he was named player of the match in the 87-run win.
Two days earlier (18 October), Sri Lanka chose to bowl and Pakistan made 305 in 49.5 overs. Salman Ali Agha scored 107 off 90 balls in that innings and was player of the match. Sri Lanka were then bowled out for 268, a 37-run defeat.
England made 429 against Sri Lanka and still lost
England have lost both their games so far, to Pakistan (20 October) and Sri Lanka (22 October). Against Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi they made 429 for 4 in 50 overs. Harry Brook scored 202 off 116 balls, Joe Root made 69 off 66 and Will Jacks finished on 66 not out off 30.
Sri Lanka reached 430 for 8 in 49.5 overs to win by two wickets. That result says more about England's bowling than their batting.
The Pakistan game went the other way. Tom Banton made 57 off 53 balls and Ben Duckett made 45 off 46, yet England were bowled out for 215 in reply to 302 for 9. Naseem Shah bowled Joe Root for 33 in that innings.
Key matchups: Arafat Minhas against England's top order
Arafat Minhas vs Tom Banton: Tom Banton made 57 off 53 against Pakistan on 20 October and 50 off 51 against Sri Lanka two days later. Arafat Minhas removed him in the first game on the way to 6 for 40, and England need Banton past that spell in Lahore.
Harry Brook vs Pakistan's bowlers: Harry Brook scored 202 off 116 balls against Sri Lanka on 22 October. Against Pakistan two days earlier, Arafat Minhas bowled him for 5. England's captain is the batter Pakistan most need to remove early.
Hasan Nawaz vs England's middle overs: Hasan Nawaz made 79 off 74 balls against England on 20 October, the top score of that match. He came in at number six, after Fakhar Zaman made 0 and Saim Ayub 8 at the top of the order.
Joe Root vs Naseem Shah: Naseem Shah bowled Joe Root for 33 in the first meeting. Joe Root then made 69 off 66 against Sri Lanka, and England have made 215 and 429 in their two games.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Pakistan's 87-run win at Rawalpindi on 20 October 2026 was their 33rd in 93 men's ODIs against England. England have won 57 of those matches, and three ended without a result.
The 25 October game is the second meeting of the tri-series between the two sides, and their first at Gaddafi Stadium in this tournament.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore hosts the 4th match, the first game of the tri-series in Lahore after three at Rawalpindi.
- Pitch: At Gaddafi Stadium in the 2025 Champions Trophy, England made 351 for 8 against Australia on 22 February and lost by five wickets. Four days later, on 26 February 2025, Afghanistan made 325 for 7 at Gaddafi Stadium and beat England by eight runs.
- Weather: No rain is forecast in Lahore on 25 October, with about 28°C at the 08:00 UTC start, falling to about 21°C by 16:00 UTC.
- Toss: We expect the toss winner to bowl first, at 64%. Sri Lanka chose to bowl after winning the toss against Pakistan (18 October) and England (22 October), and England chose to bowl against Pakistan (20 October). See the toss prediction for PAK vs ENG, locked in before the toss happens.
Match Analysis: where Pakistan won it at Rawalpindi
The 20 October game turned in England's reply. Tom Banton and Ben Duckett made 57 and 45, but England lost all ten wickets for 215 in 38.4 overs once Arafat Minhas found his way into the middle order.
England's batting is not in question after 429 for 4. Their problem in this tri-series has been with the ball, since Pakistan made 302 for 9 against them and Sri Lanka made 430 for 8.
Pakistan's question is at the top of the order. Fakhar Zaman and Saim Ayub fell cheaply against England, and the recovery came from Hasan Nawaz and Arafat Minhas lower down. A repeat of that start would leave less margin.
Pakistan vs England Prediction: why England are narrow favourites
Our AI model makes England 55% favourites, with Pakistan at 45%, and the market agrees to within about a point. England's batting depth, shown in the 429 for 4, weighs more than one bad day at Rawalpindi.
The value runs the other way. A price of 2.32 on Pakistan sits above our fair 2.23, while England's price is below our fair odds. We expect the toss winner to bowl first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 44.9% | 43.8% | 2.18 | 2.23 |
| England | 55.1% | 56.2% | 1.72 | 1.81 |
Value sits with Pakistan. A price of 2.32 is available on Pakistan, above our fair odds of 2.23, an edge of about 4%. The 2.18 in this table is below that fair price, and England's 1.72 is below our fair 1.81, so England are our pick but not the value side. Our model and the market agree on England to within about a point. Odds captured on 23 October 2026.
Pakistan ODI Tri-Series 2026
Pakistan vs Englandodds
25 Oct 2026 · 13:30 IST
Match winner: Pakistan 2.31 at Melbet; England 1.72 at Dafabet; checked 23:25–23:30 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1PAK | 2ENG | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Pakistan 2.18 | 2 · England 1.72 | Payout96.1% |
 | 1 · Pakistan ▲2.31 | 2 · England ▼1.61 | Payout95.0% |
| Highest | 1 · Pakistan2.31 | 2 · England1.72 | Payout– |
1X2: Pakistan 2.32, Tie 50.00, England 1.62 at Melbet; checked 23:25 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1PAK | XTie | 2ENG | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Pakistan ▲2.32 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England ▼1.62 | Payout93.9% |
Total runs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Match569.5 | 1.66WinWin | 2.02Melbet |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Pakistan vs England in the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series?
Our AI model predicts England to beat Pakistan, with a 55.1% win probability, at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore on 25 October 2026. Pakistan won the first meeting of the tri-series by 87 runs at Rawalpindi on 20 October 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Pakistan vs England?
We expect the toss winner to bowl first in Pakistan vs England, at 64%. All three toss winners in the tri-series so far chose to bowl, Sri Lanka twice and England once.
What are the odds for Pakistan vs England?
At the time of writing, 23 October 2026, England were priced at 1.72 and Pakistan at 2.18, against our fair odds of 1.81 and 2.23. A higher price of 2.32 is available on Pakistan, above our fair price.
What happened when Pakistan played England on 20 October 2026?
Pakistan beat England by 87 runs at Rawalpindi on 20 October 2026. Pakistan made 302 for 9 after England chose to bowl, then bowled England out for 215 in 38.4 overs, with Arafat Minhas taking 6 for 40.
How did England lose to Sri Lanka after making 429?
England made 429 for 4 against Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi on 22 October 2026, with Harry Brook scoring 202 off 116 balls. Sri Lanka reached 430 for 8 in 49.5 overs to win by two wickets.
What is the ODI head-to-head record between Pakistan and England?
England have won 57 of the 93 men's ODIs between Pakistan and England, Pakistan have won 33, and three ended without a result. That count includes Pakistan's 87-run win at Rawalpindi on 20 October 2026.
Explore More
Our bookmaker reviews: UPI, bonuses, payouts
🎯 our verified prediction historyEvery prediction logged, every result settled publicly
🏏 today's cricket betting tipsAll today's free cricket prediction tips
🪙 the venue toss dataPre-toss call vs actual outcome, auto-stamped
📱 Compare cricket betting appsAndroid and iPhone options