Papua New Guinea vs Jersey Match 32 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Jersey predicted to win with 76.8% probability against Papua New Guinea in Nairobi
Jersey
Papua New Guinea 23%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 66%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Jersey predicted to win with 76.8% probability against Papua New Guinea in Nairobi
- • Jersey beat Papua New Guinea by seven wickets on this ground (28 September 2024) and by 160 runs in St Martin (28 August 2025)
- • Papua New Guinea were bowled out in four of their five innings in the August 2025 round, and 205 was their highest total
- • Toss: field first, with a 66% chance that the toss winner bowls
- • Value: the match-winner market is efficiently priced, so the toss is the angle
Jersey are clear favourites against Papua New Guinea.
Our AI model predicts Jersey to win this ICC Cricket World Cup Challenge League A match at the Gymkhana Club Ground in Nairobi, with a 76.8% probability. The market has them at 76.5%, so we and the bookmakers agree. Jersey have won eight of their ten matches in this league, and they beat Papua New Guinea in both of their league meetings: by seven wickets on this ground in September 2024 and by 160 runs in St Martin in August 2025.
Can Papua New Guinea bat out their 50 overs against Jersey?
Papua New Guinea's league record is four wins, four defeats and two no results, and it splits sharply by round. In Nairobi in 2024 they won four of their five games. Their one defeat in that round came against Jersey at this ground (28 September 2024).
The August 2025 round in Jersey brought no wins. Denmark beat them by 18 runs (22 August 2025), Kuwait won by four wickets two days later, and Jersey won by 160 runs on 28 August 2025. Their games against Kenya (27 August 2025) and Qatar (30 August 2025) ended without a result.
The batting is the problem. Papua New Guinea were bowled out in four of their five innings in that round: for 205 against Denmark, 148 against Kuwait, 101 against Jersey and 145 against Qatar. Kabua Morea, Patrick Nou and Alei Nao are all in the 14-player squad for this round.
Why Jersey's batting makes them strong favourites
Jersey have won eight of their ten Challenge League matches. Their only defeat came against Kenya at the Ruaraka Sports Club Ground on 25 September 2024, and their game against Kuwait on 23 August 2025 ended in a tie, with both sides on 223.
The runs come from several batters. Josh Lawrenson made 139 off 152 balls against Denmark (25 August 2025), when Jersey reached 348 for 3. Zak Tribe made 49 not out off 22 balls in the same innings against Denmark (25 August 2025). Harrison Carlyon top-scored with 77 off 94 balls in the tie with Kuwait (23 August 2025).
Harrison Carlyon also made 55 off 55 balls against Qatar at Grainville (31 August 2025), as Jersey reached 136 for 2 in only 18.4 overs. Qatar had been bowled out for 132 earlier that day.
Key Matchups: Sese Bau, Josh Lawrenson and the middle overs
Sese Bau vs Jersey's new-ball bowlers: Sese Bau top-scored with 63 off 68 balls in the 148 against Kuwait (24 August 2025). PNG need an innings like that from him early, because their 112 all out against Jersey on this ground in 2024 lasted only 37.3 overs.
Josh Lawrenson vs Papua New Guinea's attack: Josh Lawrenson made 28 off 55 balls in Jersey's seven-wicket win here (28 September 2024). PNG have to remove him early, before he settles.
Patrick Nou and Alei Nao vs Jersey's middle overs: PNG need a second scorer behind Sese Bau. Alei Nao made 20 off 32 balls in the 112 here (28 September 2024), the second-highest score of that innings. Patrick Nou made 40 off 49 balls against Denmark (22 August 2025), the second-highest score in the 205.
Jonty Jenner vs the closing overs: Jonty Jenner finished the 2024 chase here with 32 not out off 15 balls (28 September 2024). Jonty Jenner also closed out the win over Kenya with 56 not out off 51 balls (21 August 2025), so Jersey have a finisher if early wickets fall.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Papua New Guinea and Jersey have met twice in this Challenge League, and Jersey won both. On this ground (28 September 2024), Papua New Guinea won the toss, batted, and were bowled out for 112 in 37.3 overs. Jersey reached 113 for 3 in 23 overs and won by seven wickets.
In St Martin (28 August 2025), Papua New Guinea won the toss and bowled. Jersey made 261 all out in 49.1 overs. Papua New Guinea were then bowled out for 101 in 30.2 overs, and Jersey won by 160 runs.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Gymkhana Club Ground, Nairobi. Jersey won all three of their 2024 Challenge League matches here: against Qatar by 168 runs (26 September 2024), Papua New Guinea by seven wickets two days later and Kuwait by 123 runs (1 October 2024). Papua New Guinea's only win here in that round was a one-wicket finish against Kenya (5 October 2024).
- Pitch: Papua New Guinea were all out for 112 against Jersey here (28 September 2024). Jersey then reached 113 for 3 in only 23 overs.
- Start: 12:15 pm IST (06:45 UTC) on Thursday 22 October 2026.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — Jersey won the toss and bowled against Kenya (21 August 2025) and Kuwait (23 August 2025), and Papua New Guinea chose to bowl after winning it against Jersey in St Martin (28 August 2025); we put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 66%. See the toss prediction for PNG vs JER, locked in before the toss happens.
Match Analysis: where Papua New Guinea vs Jersey will be won and lost
This match turns on whether PNG can bat for 50 overs. Their 205 against Denmark (22 August 2025) was their only total above 150 in the August 2025 round, and even that innings ended in the 49th over.
Jersey's one league defeat came in Nairobi, against Kenya at the Ruaraka Sports Club Ground on 25 September 2024. The Gymkhana Club Ground has been kinder to them: they beat Qatar, Papua New Guinea and Kuwait there in 2024. PNG's best chance is to bowl first, keep Jersey's total within reach and then bat through their overs.
Papua New Guinea vs Jersey Prediction: Jersey to win in Nairobi
We make Jersey 77% favourites. They have beaten Papua New Guinea twice in this league, both times comfortably, and their batting scored heavily in August 2025 while Papua New Guinea were bowled out four times in five innings.
At 1.27, Jersey sit just under our fair odds of 1.30, so the match-winner market has this about right. The toss is the angle: our call is field first, with a 66% chance that the toss winner bowls. Qatar meet Kuwait on the same day at the Ruaraka Sports Club Ground; read our Qatar vs Kuwait prediction.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Papua New Guinea | 23.2% | 23.5% | 3.65 | 4.31 |
| Jersey | 76.8% | 76.5% | 1.27 | 1.30 |
An efficiently priced match-winner market. Jersey at 1.27 sit just under our fair odds of 1.30, and Papua New Guinea at 3.65 are well short of our fair odds of 4.31. The market's 76.5% for Jersey is close to our 76.8%, so the angle is the toss, where our call is field first at 66%. Odds captured on 22 October 2026.
ICC Cricket World Cup Challenge League A
Papua New Guinea vs Jerseyodds
22 Oct 2026 · 12:15 IST
Match winner: Papua New Guinea 3.80 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; Jersey 1.27 at Dafabet; checked 09:05–09:06 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1PNG | 2JER | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Papua New Guinea ▲3.65 | 2 · Jersey ▼1.27 | Payout94.2% |
 | 1 · Papua New Guinea 3.80 | 2 · Jersey 1.25 | Payout94.1% |
 | 1 · Papua New Guinea 3.80 | 2 · Jersey 1.25 | Payout94.1% |
 | 1 · Papua New Guinea 3.80 | 2 · Jersey 1.25 | Payout94.1% |
 | 1 · Papua New Guinea 3.80 | 2 · Jersey 1.25 | Payout94.1% |
 | 1 · Papua New Guinea 3.80 | 2 · Jersey 1.25 | Payout94.1% |
 | 1 · Papua New Guinea 3.80 | 2 · Jersey 1.25 | Payout94.1% |
| Highest | 1 · Papua New Guinea3.80 | 2 · Jersey1.27 | Payout– |
1X2: Papua New Guinea 3.81, Tie 50.00, Jersey 1.25 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 09:05 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1PNG | XTie | 2JER | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Papua New Guinea 3.81 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Jersey 1.25 | Payout92.5% |
| 1 · Papua New Guinea 3.81 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Jersey 1.25 | Payout92.5% |
| 1 · Papua New Guinea 3.81 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Jersey 1.25 | Payout92.5% |
| 1 · Papua New Guinea 3.81 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Jersey 1.25 | Payout92.5% |
| 1 · Papua New Guinea 3.81 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Jersey 1.25 | Payout92.5% |
| 1 · Papua New Guinea 3.81 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Jersey 1.25 | Payout92.5% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Papua New Guinea vs Jersey in the ICC Cricket World Cup Challenge League A?
Our AI model predicts Jersey to win, with a 76.8% probability against 23.2% for Papua New Guinea. Jersey beat Papua New Guinea by seven wickets at the Gymkhana Club Ground in Nairobi (28 September 2024) and by 160 runs in St Martin (28 August 2025).
What is the toss prediction for Papua New Guinea vs Jersey?
Our toss call for Papua New Guinea vs Jersey is field first: we put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 66%. Papua New Guinea chose to bowl when they won the toss against Jersey in St Martin (28 August 2025).
What are the odds for Papua New Guinea vs Jersey?
Jersey are priced at 1.27 and Papua New Guinea at 3.65 for the 22 October 2026 match in Nairobi. Our fair odds are 1.30 for Jersey and 4.31 for Papua New Guinea, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced.
Which Jersey batters should Papua New Guinea worry about?
Josh Lawrenson, Harrison Carlyon, Zak Tribe and Jonty Jenner are all in Jersey's 14-man squad for the final round in Nairobi. Josh Lawrenson made 139 off 152 balls against Denmark on 25 August 2025.
What happened in Papua New Guinea's last Challenge League game against Jersey?
Jersey beat Papua New Guinea by 160 runs at the Farmers Cricket Club Ground in St Martin on 28 August 2025. Jersey made 261 all out in 49.1 overs. Papua New Guinea were then bowled out for 101 in 30.2 overs.
How does the toss affect Papua New Guinea vs Jersey?
Jersey are 76.8% whichever side bats first at the Gymkhana Club Ground, and we expect the toss winner to bowl, at 66%. In the meeting with Jersey on this ground (28 September 2024), Papua New Guinea batted first and were bowled out for 112.
