Sri Lanka vs England Match 3 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
England predicted to win with 71% probability
England
Sri Lanka 29%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 80%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • England predicted to win with 71% probability
- • England beat Sri Lanka 2-1 in ODI series in Colombo (January 2026) and in England (September 2026)
- • Pakistan beat Sri Lanka by 37 runs at this ground on 18 October 2026, then England by 87 runs on 20 October 2026
- • Field first is our toss call, at 80%
- • The match-winner market is efficiently priced, so the toss is the angle
England to beat Sri Lanka in Rawalpindi.
Our AI model predicts England to beat Sri Lanka with a 71% win probability in the third match of the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series 2026, at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on 22 October 2026. England beat Sri Lanka 2-1 in ODI series in Colombo in January and in England in September 2026.
Both sides come into this game after a defeat. Pakistan beat Sri Lanka by 37 runs at this ground on 18 October 2026. Pakistan then beat England by 87 runs here on 20 October 2026.
Each team plays four league matches, two against each opponent. After this game the series moves to Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore, where the top two meet in the final on 31 October 2026.
England need more runs after an 87-run defeat
England won the toss and chose to bowl against Pakistan on 20 October 2026. Pakistan made 302 for 9 in their 50 overs.
Sonny Baker took 3 for 65 in nine overs against Pakistan that day (20 October 2026). Gus Atkinson took 2 for 35 in seven overs in the same game against Pakistan, on 20 October 2026.
England were bowled out for 215 in 38.4 overs in reply, and lost by 87 runs. Tom Banton top-scored for England with 57 off 53 balls (20 October 2026).
England's previous ODI series was at home to Sri Lanka in September 2026, and England won it 2-1. The first of those games was at Chester-le-Street (22 September 2026), where England made 265 and won by 89 runs.
Will Jacks took 5 for 22 in seven overs against Sri Lanka on 22 September 2026. Sri Lanka were bowled out for 176 in 37 overs that day.
Can Sri Lanka's top order carry them past England?
Sri Lanka won the toss and chose to bowl against Pakistan on 18 October 2026. Eshan Malinga took 4 for 46 in 9.5 overs in that game (18 October 2026).
Pakistan were bowled out for 305 in 49.5 overs. Asitha Fernando took 3 for 59 in 10 overs for Sri Lanka in that innings, on 18 October 2026.
Sri Lanka were bowled out for 268 in 48.1 overs in reply and lost by 37 runs. Pavan Rathnayake top-scored for Sri Lanka with 79 off 74 balls (18 October 2026).
Janith Liyanage made 60 off 74 balls in that Sri Lanka innings, also on 18 October 2026.
Sri Lanka's previous ODI series was in England in September 2026. Their win in it came at Headingley (24 September 2026), where Sri Lanka made 321 for 6 and won by 16 runs.
Kusal Mendis made 121 off 100 balls for Sri Lanka at Headingley (24 September 2026). Kamindu Mendis made 54 off 65 balls in the same Headingley innings (24 September 2026).
Key matchups: Tom Banton against Eshan Malinga
Tom Banton vs Eshan Malinga: Tom Banton made 126 off 105 balls against Sri Lanka at The Oval on 27 September 2026. Eshan Malinga took 4 for 46 in 9.5 overs in Sri Lanka's opening game, against Pakistan on 18 October 2026.
Harry Brook vs Asitha Fernando: Harry Brook made 136 not out off 66 balls against Sri Lanka on 27 January 2026. Asitha Fernando took 3 for 64 in nine overs against England at The Oval (27 September 2026).
Pavan Rathnayake vs Will Jacks: Pavan Rathnayake made 121 off 115 balls against England on 27 January 2026. Will Jacks took 5 for 22 in seven overs against Sri Lanka at Chester-le-Street (22 September 2026).
Kusal Mendis vs Gus Atkinson: Kusal Mendis made 93 not out off 117 balls against England on 22 January 2026. Gus Atkinson took 2 for 35 in seven overs in England's last game, on 20 October 2026.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
England beat Sri Lanka 2-1 in an ODI series in Sri Lanka in January 2026, and again in England in September 2026. England won on 24 January, 27 January, 22 September and 27 September 2026; Sri Lanka won on 22 January and 24 September 2026.
In Colombo in January 2026, Sri Lanka won the first ODI at R Premadasa Stadium by 19 runs (22 January 2026). England won the second by five wickets (24 January 2026) and the third by 53 runs (27 January 2026), taking the series 2-1.
In England in September 2026, England won at Chester-le-Street by 89 runs (22 September), Sri Lanka at Headingley by 16 runs (24 September) and England at The Oval by 223 runs (27 September 2026).
England made 355 for 7 at The Oval on 27 September 2026. Sri Lanka were bowled out for 132 in 29.1 overs in reply.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium, Rawalpindi hosts Sri Lanka v England, the third match of the tri-series, on Thursday 22 October 2026.
- Pitch: Pakistan batted first and won both tri-series games at this ground, making 305 against Sri Lanka (18 October 2026) and 302 for 9 against England (20 October 2026).
- Weather: Both of those games were played as full 50-over matches, with no reduction in overs.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — we put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 80%. Sri Lanka won the toss and bowled against Pakistan here on 18 October 2026, and England did the same on 20 October 2026. Our SL vs ENG pre-toss pick goes on the public toss page and gets tracked once the toss is done.
Match Analysis: how Sri Lanka can trouble England
Sri Lanka's best route is a big first-innings total. In the 24 September 2026 game at Headingley, Sri Lanka made 321 for 6 and beat England by 16 runs.
In both tri-series games at this ground, the toss winner chose to bowl and the side batting first won. Sri Lanka chose to bowl on 18 October 2026 and lost by 37 runs; England chose to bowl on 20 October 2026 and lost by 87 runs.
England have scored heavily against Sri Lanka in 2026. Harry Brook made 77 off 66 balls for England at The Oval (27 September 2026), when England made 355 for 7. England made 357 for 3 against Sri Lanka in Colombo on 27 January 2026.
Sri Lanka vs England prediction: England at 71%
We back England at 71.3%. England beat Sri Lanka 2-1 in January and again in September 2026, and won the last ODI between the sides by 223 runs at The Oval on 27 September 2026.
Both prices sit under our fair odds, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced and the toss is the angle: field first at 80%. Our model is close to the market here, at 71.3% for England against an implied 73.2%.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sri Lanka | 28.7% | 26.8% | 3.45 | 3.48 |
| England | 71.3% | 73.2% | 1.34 | 1.40 |
The match-winner market is efficiently priced. England at 1.34 sit under our fair odds of 1.40, and Sri Lanka at 3.45 under our fair 3.48. The toss is the angle, where our call is field first at 80%. Odds captured on 21 October 2026.
Pakistan ODI Tri-Series 2026
Sri Lanka vs Englandodds
22 Oct 2026 · 13:30 IST
Match winner: Sri Lanka 3.45 at Dafabet; England 1.34 at Dafabet; checked 14:45–14:48 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1SL | 2ENG | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▲3.45 | 2 · England ▲1.34 | Payout96.5% |
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▼3.43 | 2 · England ▲1.31 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▼3.43 | 2 · England ▲1.31 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▼3.43 | 2 · England ▲1.31 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▼3.43 | 2 · England ▲1.31 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▼3.43 | 2 · England ▲1.31 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▼3.43 | 2 · England ▲1.31 | Payout95.0% |
| Highest | 1 · Sri Lanka3.45 | 2 · England1.34 | Payout– |
1X2: Sri Lanka 3.44, Tie 50.00, England 1.31 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 14:45 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1SL | XTie | 2ENG | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Sri Lanka ▼3.44 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England 1.31 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Sri Lanka ▼3.44 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England 1.31 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Sri Lanka ▼3.44 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England 1.31 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Sri Lanka ▼3.44 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England 1.31 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Sri Lanka ▼3.44 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England 1.31 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Sri Lanka ▼3.44 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England 1.31 | Payout93.4% |
Total runs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Match545.5 | 1.61WinWin | 2.11Melbet |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sri Lanka vs England in the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series?
Our AI model predicts England to beat Sri Lanka, with a 71.3% win probability, at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on 22 October 2026. England beat Sri Lanka by 223 runs at The Oval on 27 September 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Sri Lanka vs England?
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 80% for Sri Lanka vs England in Rawalpindi. Sri Lanka won the toss and bowled against Pakistan on 18 October 2026, and England won it and bowled on 20 October 2026.
What are the odds for Sri Lanka vs England?
At the time of writing, 21 October 2026, England are 1.34 and Sri Lanka 3.45. Our fair odds are 1.40 and 3.48, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced.
Who are the key players for Sri Lanka and England?
For England, Tom Banton made 126 off 105 balls against Sri Lanka at The Oval on 27 September 2026. For Sri Lanka, Pavan Rathnayake made 79 off 74 balls against Pakistan on 18 October 2026.
How have Sri Lanka and England done against each other in 2026?
England beat Sri Lanka 2-1 in an ODI series in Colombo in January 2026 and again in England in September 2026. The last ODI between Sri Lanka and England, at The Oval on 27 September 2026, went to England by 223 runs.
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