Wellington vs Northern Districts Match 8 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Wellington predicted to win with 52% probability
Wellington
Northern Districts 48%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 70%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Wellington predicted to win with 52% probability
- • Wellington lost both home games this season, but they won both 2025-26 meetings with Northern Districts
- • Robert O'Donnell made 145 off 102 balls for Northern Districts against Central Districts (28 October 2026)
- • Field first is our toss call, at 70%, with a dry and overcast start forecast
- • Northern Districts at 2.11 sit just above our fair odds of 2.10, a marginal edge
Wellington are our pick at 52%.
Our AI model predicts Wellington to beat Northern Districts at the Basin Reserve with a 52% win probability. This is the 8th Match of The Ford Trophy 2026-27, New Zealand's domestic one-day competition, and the start is 3:00 am IST (21:30 UTC). Wellington have lost both of their home games this season, but they won both of last season's meetings with Northern Districts.
Can Wellington bounce back after two defeats at home?
Wellington have played both of their 2026-27 games at the Basin Reserve. Otago won the toss and fielded in the first of them (29 October 2026), and Wellington were all out for 213 in 48.1 overs. Otago made 214 for 4 in 37.1 overs and won by 6 wickets.
Oscar Jackson top-scored in that innings with 52 off 59 balls against Otago (29 October 2026). Jesse Tashkoff made 45 off 57 balls in the same game against Otago (29 October 2026).
Wellington then won the toss and fielded against Canterbury on 31 October 2026. Canterbury made 350 for 5 in 50 overs. Yahya Zeb took 4 for 63 in 9 overs for Wellington against Canterbury in that innings (31 October 2026).
Wellington were all out for 141 in 32.2 overs and lost by 209 runs. Gareth Severin made 55 off 80 balls in that reply to Canterbury (31 October 2026). James Hartshorn captains Wellington this season, and he led them in both games.
Which Northern Districts batting line-up turns up?
Northern Districts opened their season at Saxton Oval, Nelson, on 28 October 2026. They won the toss, batted and made 403 for 6 in 50 overs. Central Districts were all out for 341 in 44.2 overs, and Northern Districts won by 62 runs.
Captain Robert O'Donnell made 145 off 102 balls against Central Districts (28 October 2026). Xavier Bell finished the innings on 50 not out off 26 balls, facing Central Districts in Nelson (28 October 2026).
James Naylor took 3 for 48 in 8 overs when Northern Districts bowled at Central Districts in Nelson (28 October 2026). Josh Brown took 3 for 36 in 8.2 overs facing the same Central Districts batting line-up at Nelson (28 October 2026).
The second game, at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui on 31 October 2026, went the other way. Auckland won the toss and fielded, and Northern Districts were all out for 167 in 44.4 overs. Xavier Bell made 46 off 57 balls against Auckland in that innings (31 October 2026). Auckland made 170 for 6 in 33.2 overs and won by 4 wickets.
Key Matchups: O'Donnell, Bell and Tashkoff against the wicket-takers
Robert O'Donnell vs Yahya Zeb: Robert O'Donnell made 145 off 102 balls for Northern Districts against Central Districts at Saxton Oval (28 October 2026). Yahya Zeb took 4 for 63 in 9 overs for Wellington against Canterbury in Wellington (31 October 2026).
Xavier Bell vs James Hartshorn: Xavier Bell made 54 off 58 balls against Wellington on their home ground (18 February 2026). Xavier Bell also made 46 off 57 balls against Auckland at Bay Oval (31 October 2026). James Hartshorn took 3 for 23 in 5 overs against Northern Districts in Wellington (18 February 2026).
Jesse Tashkoff vs James Naylor: Jesse Tashkoff made 51 off 65 balls against Northern Districts in Wellington (18 February 2026). James Naylor took 3 for 48 in 8 overs for Northern Districts against Central Districts at Saxton Oval (28 October 2026).
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
This is the first meeting of the 2026-27 season between Wellington and Northern Districts. Wellington won both of their 2025-26 Ford Trophy games against Northern Districts.
Wellington won the toss and fielded at Seddon Park, Hamilton (3 November 2025). Northern Districts were all out for 233 in 46.3 overs. Wellington made 234 for 7 in 43.3 overs and won by 3 wickets.
Northern Districts won the toss and fielded in Wellington (18 February 2026). Wellington made 281 for 7 in 50 overs. Northern Districts were all out for 163 in 36.1 overs, and Wellington won by 118 runs.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Basin Reserve, Wellington hosts this 8th Match of the season.
- Pitch: Canterbury batted first at the Basin Reserve and made 350 for 5 against Wellington on 31 October 2026. Otago made 214 for 4 in 37.1 overs in Wellington to win by 6 wickets (29 October 2026). Wellington made 281 for 7 batting first against Northern Districts in Wellington (18 February 2026).
- Weather: Open-Meteo and MET Norway forecasts (both fetched 3 November 2026) show a dry, overcast start at 17-18°C.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — we put the chance that the toss winner chooses to field at 70%. Five of the six toss winners in The Ford Trophy 2026-27 so far chose to field. See our WELL vs ND toss call, locked in before the coin lands.
Match Analysis: where Wellington vs Northern Districts is won and lost
Northern Districts' top order decides the shape of this game. They made 403 for 6 against Central Districts at Nelson (28 October 2026), then were all out for 167 against Auckland at Bay Oval on 31 October 2026. Wellington need early wickets from Yahya Zeb and James Hartshorn.
Wellington's route is their batting. Their totals this season were 213 against Otago (29 October 2026) and 141 against Canterbury (31 October 2026). Against Northern Districts in Wellington they made 281 for 7, a total that won by 118 runs (18 February 2026).
The forecast is dry and overcast, so a full 50-over game is likely. Five of the six toss winners this season chose to field, and we expect the toss winner to bowl first here too.
Wellington vs Northern Districts prediction: Wellington 52% in a close game
Our AI model gives Wellington a 52% chance of beating Northern Districts at home. The market also makes Wellington favourites, at a shorter price than our number, so the marginal edge sits with Northern Districts at 2.11. On the toss, we expect the toss winner to bowl first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington | 52.4% | 55.3% | 1.73 | 1.91 |
| Northern Districts | 47.6% | 44.7% | 2.11 | 2.10 |
Northern Districts carry a marginal edge. Northern Districts at 2.11 sit just above our fair odds of 2.10, while Wellington at 1.73 sit below their fair price of 1.91. Our model is 2.9 points below the market on Wellington, and Wellington's two home defeats this season, by 6 wickets to Otago and by 209 runs to Canterbury, weigh on our number. Odds captured on 3 November 2026.
Ford Trophy
Wellington vs Northern Districtsodds
4 Nov 2026 · 03:00 IST
Match winner: Wellington 1.73, Northern Districts 2.11 at Dafabet; checked 11:09 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1WELL | 2ND | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Wellington ▲1.73 | 2 · Northern Districts ▲2.11 | Payout95.1% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Wellington vs Northern Districts in the Ford Trophy?
Our AI model predicts Wellington to beat Northern Districts at the Basin Reserve with a 52% win probability. Wellington won both 2025-26 meetings between the sides, by 3 wickets and by 118 runs, though they lost both of their 2026-27 home games, to Otago and Canterbury.
What is the toss prediction for Wellington vs Northern Districts?
Our toss call for Wellington vs Northern Districts is field first, at 70%. Five of the six toss winners in The Ford Trophy 2026-27 so far chose to field, and the forecast for the start in Wellington is dry and overcast.
What are the odds for Wellington vs Northern Districts?
Wellington are 1.73 and Northern Districts are 2.11 for this 8th Match. Our fair odds are 1.91 for Wellington and 2.10 for Northern Districts, so the Northern Districts price sits just above fair, a marginal edge, while Wellington sit below their fair price.
Have Wellington and Northern Districts met before?
Yes. Wellington beat Northern Districts by 3 wickets at Seddon Park, Hamilton (3 November 2025) and by 118 runs at the Basin Reserve (18 February 2026), both in The Ford Trophy 2025-26. This game is their first meeting of the 2026-27 season.
How have recent games at the Basin Reserve gone?
Otago beat Wellington by 6 wickets in Wellington, making 214 for 4 in 37.1 overs (29 October 2026). Canterbury made 350 for 5 batting first in Wellington and won by 209 runs (31 October 2026).
What time does Wellington vs Northern Districts start?
Wellington vs Northern Districts starts at 21:30 UTC, which is 3:00 am IST. The Basin Reserve in Wellington hosts the 50-over day game, the 8th Match of the season.
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