Lesotho vs Uganda Match 5 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Uganda predicted to win with 96% probability
Uganda
Lesotho 4%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 65%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Uganda predicted to win with 96% probability
- • Uganda beat Zambia by 87 runs (20 October 2026), after making 195 for 6
- • Lesotho beat Mozambique by 74 runs that day, with 52 off 32 balls from Maaz Khan
- • Bat first is our toss call, at 65%
- • The match-winner market is efficiently priced, so the toss is the angle
Uganda to beat Lesotho in Abuja.
Our AI model predicts Uganda to beat Lesotho with a 96% win probability in the fifth match of the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C 2026, at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 2, Abuja. Both sides won their opening games on 20 October 2026: Uganda beat Zambia by 87 runs, and Lesotho beat Mozambique by 74 runs.
Six teams play each other once at two grounds in Abuja: Nigeria, Gambia, Uganda, Zambia, Lesotho and Mozambique. The top two go through to the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Regional Final in 2027. Mozambique and Gambia also play on 21 October 2026, at Oval 1, and our Mozambique vs Gambia prediction covers that game.
Uganda made 195 for 6 in their opener
Uganda won the toss and batted against Zambia at Oval 1 on 20 October 2026, making 195 for 6 in 20 overs. Riazat Ali Shah hit 38 off 20 balls, and Raghav Dhawan made 23 off 16 balls.
Zambia were bowled out for 108 in 17.3 overs in reply, and Uganda won by 87 runs. Joseph Baguma took 4 for 44 in four overs in the Zambia innings.
Uganda came to Abuja from the Africa Continental Cup 2026 at Gahanga International Cricket Stadium in Rwanda. They beat Botswana by five wickets on 16 September 2026, Rwanda by 72 runs on 17 September and Kenya by 47 runs on 18 September.
Uganda made 188 for 2 against Rwanda (17 September) and 197 for 7 against Kenya (18 September). Kenya then beat Uganda by 39 runs in the final on 19 September 2026.
Maaz Khan leads Lesotho's batting into this game
Lesotho won the toss and batted against Mozambique at Oval 1 on 20 October 2026, making 169 for 8 in 20 overs. Maaz Khan made 52 off 32 balls.
Mozambique were bowled out for 95 in 18.2 overs, and Lesotho won by 74 runs. Tsepiso Chaoana took 1 for 14 in three overs, and Lefulere Monanthane bowled three overs for 13 runs.
The Eswatini T20 Tri-Series in Malkerns was mixed for Lesotho in June. Eswatini beat Lesotho by seven wickets on 4 June 2026, after bowling them out for 91 in 14 overs.
Mozambique beat Lesotho by 22 runs on 4 June 2026, when Maaz Khan made 96 off 44 balls in Lesotho's 178 for 3. Mozambique also beat Lesotho by 49 runs on 6 June 2026.
Lesotho finished that event with a win. They made 221 for 6 against Eswatini on 7 June 2026 and won by 18 runs. Maaz Khan made 82 off 31 balls in that innings, and Chachole Tlali added 31 off 25 balls.
Key matchups: Maaz Khan against Uganda's attack
Maaz Khan vs Joseph Baguma: Maaz Khan made 52 off 32 balls against Mozambique in the 20 October game. Joseph Baguma took 4 for 44 in four overs against Zambia (20 October 2026).
Riazat Ali Shah vs Tsepiso Chaoana: Riazat Ali Shah made 53 off 33 balls against Kenya in the Africa Continental Cup final (19 September 2026). Tsepiso Chaoana took 1 for 14 in three overs against Mozambique in Lesotho's 20 October win.
Raghav Dhawan vs Bahlakoana Mejaro: Raghav Dhawan made 23 off 16 balls against Zambia in Uganda's 20 October win. Bahlakoana Mejaro took 1 for 24 in four overs against Eswatini on 7 June 2026.
Lefulere Monanthane vs Uganda's bowlers: Lefulere Monanthane made 33 off 21 balls against Mozambique on 6 June 2026, in a 49-run defeat for Lesotho. Lesotho will need runs like those against Uganda.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Lesotho and Uganda met at the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier in Kigali on 19 October 2021, and Uganda won by 10 wickets.
Lesotho won the toss and batted that day, and were bowled out for 26 in 12.4 overs.
Uganda reached 27 without loss in 3.4 overs, with 98 balls remaining.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 2, Abuja hosts Lesotho v Uganda, the fifth match of the qualifier, on Wednesday 21 October 2026.
- Pitch: Nigeria beat Gambia by 160 runs at this ground on 20 October 2026, after making 262 for 1 in 20 overs. Gambia were all out for 102 in 17.2 overs in reply.
- Weather: A day game in Abuja.
- Toss: Toss call: Bat first — we put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 65%. Uganda and Lesotho each won the toss and batted in their opening games, and Nigeria did the same at this ground. Our full pre-toss reasoning for LSO vs UGA — field first or bat first, and why — sits on the toss page.
Match Analysis: where Lesotho need to beat Uganda
Lesotho's route is to bat first and post a big total. Lesotho made 221 for 6 against Eswatini on 7 June 2026. In their opening game in Abuja, 169 for 8 was enough to beat Mozambique by 74 runs.
Kenya beat Uganda by 39 runs in the Africa Continental Cup final on 19 September 2026, batting first. Kenya made 170 for 7. Uganda were bowled out for 131 in 17.5 overs in reply.
Uganda's route is the one that worked against Zambia: bat first, post a total near 200 and bowl the opposition out. Uganda made 195 for 6 in that game. Zambia lasted 17.3 overs in reply.
Lesotho vs Uganda prediction: Uganda at 96%
We back Uganda at 96.2%. Uganda beat Lesotho by 10 wickets in Kigali in October 2021, and they opened this event with an 87-run win over Zambia on 20 October 2026.
Both prices sit under our fair odds, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced and the toss is the angle: bat first at 65%. Our model is close to the market here, at 96.2% for Uganda against an implied 97.0%.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lesotho | 3.8% | 3.0% | 10.00 | 26.32 |
| Uganda | 96.2% | 97.0% | 1.02 | 1.04 |
The match-winner market is efficiently priced. Uganda at 1.02 sit under our fair odds of 1.04, and Lesotho at 10.00 under our fair 26.32. The toss is the angle, where our call is bat first at 65%. Odds captured on 21 October 2026.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C 2026
Lesotho vs Ugandaodds
21 Oct 2026 · 14:00 IST
Match winner: Lesotho 15.50 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; Uganda 1.02 at Dafabet; checked 13:10–13:12 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1LSO | 2UGA | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Lesotho 10.00 | 2 · Uganda 1.02 | Payout92.6% |
 | 1 · Lesotho 15.50 | 2 · Uganda 1.01 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · Lesotho 15.50 | 2 · Uganda 1.01 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · Lesotho 15.50 | 2 · Uganda 1.01 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · Lesotho 15.50 | 2 · Uganda 1.01 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · Lesotho 15.50 | 2 · Uganda 1.01 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · Lesotho 15.50 | 2 · Uganda 1.01 | Payout94.9% |
| Highest | 1 · Lesotho15.50 | 2 · Uganda1.02 | Payout– |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Lesotho vs Uganda in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C?
Our AI model predicts Uganda to beat Lesotho, with a 96.2% win probability, at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 2, Abuja on 21 October 2026. Uganda beat Lesotho by 10 wickets in Kigali on 19 October 2021.
What is the toss prediction for Lesotho vs Uganda?
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 65% for Lesotho vs Uganda in Abuja. Uganda and Lesotho each won the toss and batted in their opening games of the qualifier.
What are the odds for Lesotho vs Uganda?
At the time of writing, 21 October 2026, Uganda are 1.02 and Lesotho 10.00. Our fair odds are 1.04 and 26.32, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced.
Who are the key players for Lesotho and Uganda?
For Lesotho, Maaz Khan made 52 off 32 balls against Mozambique on 20 October 2026. For Uganda, Riazat Ali Shah made 38 off 20 balls against Zambia in their 20 October game. Joseph Baguma took 4 for 44 in four overs in that game.
Have Lesotho and Uganda played each other before?
Yes. Uganda beat Lesotho by 10 wickets in Kigali on 19 October 2021, at the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier. Lesotho were bowled out for 26 in 12.4 overs that day.
How does the Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C work?
Six teams, including Lesotho and Uganda, play each other once in Abuja in October 2026. The top two reach the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Regional Final in 2027.
