Afghanistan vs Bangladesh Match 3 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Afghanistan predicted to win with 61% probability
Afghanistan
Bangladesh 39%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 55%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Afghanistan predicted to win with 61% probability
- • Afghanistan won the three ODIs against Bangladesh at this ground in October 2025, by five wickets, 81 runs and 200 runs
- • Bangladesh lost their tri-series opener to Zimbabwe by 99 runs (17 October 2026)
- • Bat first is our toss call, at 55%
- • Afghanistan at 1.72 are above our fair odds of 1.65, an edge of 4.1%
Afghanistan are our pick at 61%.
Our AI model predicts an Afghanistan win over Bangladesh in the 3rd Match of the UAE ODI Tri-Series at Sheikh Zayed Cricket Stadium on Wednesday 21 October 2026. A win sends Afghanistan into the final on 23 October. Bangladesh, beaten by 99 runs by Zimbabwe in their opener, need a win to stay in contention.
Can Afghanistan's spinners finish the job and reach the final?
Afghanistan opened their tri-series with a 158-run win over Zimbabwe in Abu Dhabi (19 October 2026). They won the toss, batted and made 294 in 50 overs.
Sediqullah Atal made 102 off 110 balls against Zimbabwe on 19 October 2026. Ibrahim Zadran made 90 off 96 balls against Zimbabwe in that innings.
Rashid Khan then took 4 for 17 in eight overs (19 October 2026) as Zimbabwe were bowled out for 136 in 38.4 overs. Fazalhaq Farooqi took 2 for 15 in five overs against Zimbabwe in the same game.
Afghanistan's previous one-day games came in Ireland in August 2026. After the 5 August game at Bready was abandoned, they beat Ireland by 92 runs on 7 August, by three wickets on 10 August, by 42 runs on 12 August and by six wickets on 15 August 2026.
Afghanistan and Bangladesh also drew a one-off Test in Abu Dhabi from 9 to 13 October 2026.
Can Bangladesh recover from their 99-run defeat to Zimbabwe?
Bangladesh lost their first game of the tri-series to Zimbabwe by 99 runs. Zimbabwe won the toss, batted and made 271 for 8 in 50 overs (17 October 2026). Taskin Ahmed took 3 for 44 in 10 overs against Zimbabwe in that innings.
Bangladesh were then bowled out for 172 in 33.4 overs. Tanzid Hasan Tamim made their top score, 46 off 38 balls, against Zimbabwe that day.
Bangladesh hope to have Mehidy Hasan Miraz back. He missed the Zimbabwe game with a fever and returned to training two days later (19 October 2026).
Mehidy Hasan Miraz made 60 off 87 balls against Afghanistan in Abu Dhabi (8 October 2025). Mehidy Hasan Miraz took 3 for 42 in 10 overs against Afghanistan three days later (11 October 2025).
Key Matchups: Rashid Khan, Ibrahim Zadran and Taskin Ahmed
Rashid Khan vs Towhid Hridoy: Rashid Khan took 5 for 17 in 8.3 overs against Bangladesh in Abu Dhabi on 11 October 2025. Towhid Hridoy made 56 off 85 balls against Afghanistan at Sheikh Zayed (8 October 2025). Bangladesh's middle order has to get through Rashid Khan's spell.
Ibrahim Zadran vs Taskin Ahmed: Ibrahim Zadran made 95 off 140 balls against Bangladesh (11 October 2025). Ibrahim Zadran made 95 off 111 balls against Bangladesh three days later (14 October 2025). Taskin Ahmed took 3 for 44 in 10 overs against Zimbabwe (17 October 2026), and early wickets from him are Bangladesh's best way to keep the target down.
Tanzid Hasan Tamim vs Fazalhaq Farooqi: Tanzid Hasan Tamim made 46 off 38 balls against Zimbabwe (17 October 2026). Fazalhaq Farooqi took 2 for 15 in five overs against Zimbabwe (19 October 2026). The opening exchanges between them set the tone for the Bangladesh innings.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Afghanistan and Bangladesh played three ODIs at Sheikh Zayed Cricket Stadium in October 2025, and Afghanistan won each of them.
In the first (8 October 2025), Bangladesh were bowled out for 221 in 48.5 overs. Afghanistan reached 226 for 5 in 47.1 overs to win by five wickets.
Afghanistan were bowled out for 190 in 44.5 overs in the second game (11 October 2025). Bangladesh were all out for 109 in 28.3 overs in reply, and Afghanistan won by 81 runs.
In the third game (14 October 2025) Afghanistan made 293 for 9 in 50 overs. Bangladesh were bowled out for 93 in 27.1 overs, and Afghanistan won by 200 runs.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Sheikh Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi. Afghanistan v Bangladesh is the 3rd Match of the UAE ODI Tri-Series, on Wednesday 21 October 2026.
- Ground: The side batting first won here on 11 and 14 October 2025, and again in the first two games of this series (17 and 19 October 2026). Afghanistan won the 8 October 2025 game batting second.
- Series: Zimbabwe are the third team. Afghanistan reach the 23 October 2026 final with a win, and Bangladesh need a win to stay in contention.
- Toss: Toss call: Bat first — Bangladesh won the toss and batted here (8 October 2025), Afghanistan did the same on 11 and 14 October 2025 and on 19 October 2026, and Zimbabwe did so (17 October 2026); we put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 55%. Our full pre-toss reasoning for AFG vs BAN — field first or bat first, and why — sits on the toss page.
Match Analysis: where Afghanistan vs Bangladesh will be won and lost
This game turns on Bangladesh's batting against Afghanistan's spinners. Afghanistan bowled Bangladesh out for 109 in 28.3 overs on 11 October 2025. Bangladesh were all out for 93 in 27.1 overs against Afghanistan three days later.
The toss matters too. If Bangladesh win it and bat, they need a total far above the 172 they made against Zimbabwe (17 October 2026). If Afghanistan bat first, Bangladesh need early wickets from Taskin Ahmed to keep the chase in reach.
Afghanistan also bat deep. Mohammad Nabi struck 62 off 37 balls against Bangladesh (14 October 2025).
Afghanistan vs Bangladesh Prediction: Afghanistan to win and reach the final
We back Afghanistan at 61%. They won the three ODIs against Bangladesh in Abu Dhabi in October 2025 and opened this series by beating Zimbabwe by 158 runs. Bangladesh, at 39.5%, lost their opener to Zimbabwe by 99 runs and need this game.
Afghanistan are the value side at 1.72, and we expect the toss winner to bat first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | 60.5% | 56.3% | 1.72 | 1.65 |
| Bangladesh | 39.5% | 43.8% | 2.18 | 2.53 |
Value on Afghanistan. The price of 1.72 on Afghanistan is above our fair odds of 1.65, an edge of 4.1%. Bangladesh at 2.18 sit under our fair 2.53. Odds captured on 20 October 2026.
Our model is 4.2 points above the market on Afghanistan. Here's why. The market, with the bookmaker's margin removed, makes Afghanistan 56.3%. Afghanistan won the three ODIs against Bangladesh at this ground in October 2025, by five wickets, 81 runs and 200 runs. Bangladesh were bowled out for 172 in 33.4 overs by Zimbabwe (17 October 2026), in a game Mehidy Hasan Miraz missed with a fever.
UAE ODI Tri-Series 2026
Afghanistan vs Bangladeshodds
21 Oct 2026 · 17:00 IST
Match winner: Afghanistan 1.72 at Dafabet; Bangladesh 2.25 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 14:50–14:51 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1AFG | 2BAN | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.72 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.18 | Payout96.1% |
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.64 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.25 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.64 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.25 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.64 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.25 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.64 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.25 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.64 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.25 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.64 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.25 | Payout95.0% |
| Highest | 1 · Afghanistan1.72 | 2 · Bangladesh2.25 | Payout– |
1X2: Afghanistan 1.64, Tie 50.00, Bangladesh 2.26 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 14:50 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1AFG | XTie | 2BAN | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Afghanistan 1.64 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.26 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Afghanistan 1.64 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.26 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Afghanistan 1.64 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.26 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Afghanistan 1.64 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.26 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Afghanistan 1.64 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.26 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Afghanistan 1.64 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Bangladesh 2.26 | Payout93.4% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Afghanistan vs Bangladesh in the UAE ODI Tri-Series 2026?
Our AI model predicts Afghanistan to beat Bangladesh, with a 61% win probability, in the 3rd Match of the UAE ODI Tri-Series at Sheikh Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi on 21 October 2026. Afghanistan won the three ODIs between the sides at this ground in October 2025.
What is the toss prediction for Afghanistan vs Bangladesh?
Our toss call for Afghanistan vs Bangladesh is bat first, at 55%. Afghanistan won the toss and batted at Sheikh Zayed Cricket Stadium on 11 and 14 October 2025 and in the 19 October 2026 game against Zimbabwe.
What are the odds for Afghanistan vs Bangladesh?
At the time of writing, 20 October 2026, Afghanistan were priced at 1.72 and Bangladesh at 2.18 for this game. Our fair odds are 1.65 and 2.53, so Afghanistan carry an edge of 4.1%.
What happened when Afghanistan and Bangladesh played ODIs in October 2025?
Afghanistan beat Bangladesh in three ODIs at Sheikh Zayed Cricket Stadium in October 2025: by five wickets (8 October), by 81 runs (11 October) and by 200 runs (14 October 2025). Rashid Khan took 5 for 17 in 8.3 overs in that 11 October 2025 win.
How did Bangladesh start the UAE ODI Tri-Series?
Bangladesh lost to Zimbabwe by 99 runs in Abu Dhabi on 17 October 2026. Zimbabwe made 271 for 8 in 50 overs that day. Bangladesh were bowled out for 172 in 33.4 overs, and Tanzid Hasan Tamim made their top score, 46 off 38 balls.
What does Afghanistan vs Bangladesh mean for the tri-series final?
The UAE ODI Tri-Series final, on 23 October 2026, is between the top two sides. Afghanistan, who beat Zimbabwe by 158 runs in their opener (19 October 2026), reach the final with a win. Bangladesh, beaten by Zimbabwe in their opener, need a win to stay in contention.
