Mozambique vs Gambia Match 4 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Mozambique predicted to win with 78% probability
Mozambique
Gambia 22%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 76%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Mozambique predicted to win with 78% probability
- • Mozambique beat Gambia by 40 runs on 8 December 2022 and by six wickets on 24 October 2024
- • Lesotho beat Mozambique by 74 runs on 20 October 2026, and Nigeria beat Gambia by 160 runs on the same day
- • Bat first is our toss call, at 76%
- • The match-winner market is efficiently priced, so the toss is the angle
Mozambique to beat Gambia in Abuja.
Our AI model predicts Mozambique to beat Gambia with a 78% win probability in the fourth match of the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C 2026, at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, Abuja. Lesotho beat Mozambique and Nigeria beat Gambia on 20 October 2026, and Mozambique beat Gambia at the sub-regional qualifiers of December 2022 and October 2024.
Six teams play each other once at two grounds in Abuja: Nigeria, Gambia, Uganda, Zambia, Lesotho and Mozambique. The top two go through to the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Regional Final in 2027.
Can Mozambique's batting recover from 95 all out?
Lesotho batted first against Mozambique at this ground on 20 October 2026, making 169 for 8 in 20 overs. Vieira Tembo took 3 for 21 in four overs in that innings, and Lourenço Simango took 2 for 25 in four overs.
Mozambique were bowled out for 95 in 18.2 overs, and Lesotho won by 74 runs. Joao Hou made 49 off 45 balls, the top score of the Mozambique innings.
The same two sides met three times at the Eswatini T20 Tri-Series in Malkerns in June. Mozambique beat Lesotho by 110 runs (2 June 2026), by 22 runs (4 June 2026) and by 49 runs (6 June 2026).
Joao Hou made 126 off 55 balls against Lesotho on 2 June 2026, as Mozambique posted 217 for 6. Jose Bulele took 3 for 23 in four overs in the Lesotho innings that followed.
Gambia need a far bigger batting effort than 102 all out
Nigeria batted first against Gambia at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 2 on 20 October 2026, making 262 for 1 in 20 overs.
Gambia were bowled out for 102 in 17.2 overs in reply, and Nigeria won by 160 runs. Andre Jarju made 39 off 38 balls, the top score of the Gambia innings. Frank Campbell made 25 off 20 balls, and David Demba hit 19 off 8 balls.
The 2024 sub-regional qualifier in Nairobi was hard going for Gambia too. Kenya bowled Gambia out for 46 on 22 October 2024, winning by 129 runs. Andre Jarju took 3 for 40 in four overs in the Kenya innings.
Two days later, Gambia made 142 for 5 against Mozambique (24 October 2024), with 33 off 29 balls from Abubacarr Kuyateh and 25 off 26 balls from Muhammed Manga.
Key matchups: Joao Hou against Gambia's bowlers
Joao Hou vs Andre Jarju: Joao Hou made 49 off 45 balls against Lesotho on 20 October 2026. Joao Hou also took 3 for 2 in one over against Gambia (8 December 2022). Andre Jarju took 1 for 35 in four overs against Mozambique on 24 October 2024.
Abubacarr Kuyateh vs Vieira Tembo: Abubacarr Kuyateh made 33 off 29 balls against Mozambique on 24 October 2024. Vieira Tembo took 3 for 21 in four overs against Lesotho on 20 October 2026.
Agostinho Navicha vs Gambia's death bowling: Agostinho Navicha made 31 not out off 29 balls against Gambia on 24 October 2024, when Mozambique reached 143 for 4 with seven balls to spare.
Jose Bulele vs Frank Campbell: Jose Bulele made 50 off 50 balls in the December 2022 meeting with Gambia. Jose Bulele then took 3 for 25 in three overs in the Gambia innings that followed. Frank Campbell made 25 off 20 balls in the 20 October 2026 game with Nigeria.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Mozambique beat Gambia in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group B in December 2022 and again in October 2024.
Mozambique won the toss and batted on 8 December 2022, making 127 for 5 in 20 overs. Gambia were bowled out for 70 in 11 overs, and Mozambique won by 40 runs on the DLS method.
Gambia won the toss and batted at Ruaraka Sports Club Ground, Nairobi on 24 October 2024, making 142 for 5. Mozambique reached 143 for 4 in 18.5 overs and won by six wickets, with seven balls remaining.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, Abuja hosts Mozambique v Gambia, the fourth match of the qualifier, on Wednesday 21 October 2026.
- Pitch: Lesotho v Mozambique was played here on 20 October 2026, and 169 for 8 was enough for a 74-run win. In the West Africa Trophy here, Nigeria made 152 for 7 and beat Zambia by 26 runs on 12 December 2025.
- Weather: A day game in Abuja.
- Toss: Toss call: Bat first — we put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 76%. Lesotho won the toss and batted against Mozambique here on 20 October 2026, as did Nigeria against Gambia at Oval 2. See our MOZ vs GM toss call, locked in before the coin lands.
Match Analysis: Mozambique's top order against Gambia's bowlers
Gambia's route is to bat first and set a total. Gambia made 142 for 5 against Mozambique in October 2024, and Mozambique needed 18.5 overs to pass it.
Early wickets are the other half of it. Mozambique were bowled out for 95 against Lesotho on 20 October 2026. Joao Hou made 49 of those runs.
Mozambique's route is the one that worked in December 2022: bat first, post a total and bowl Gambia out. Mozambique made 127 for 5 that day. Gambia were all out for 70 in 11 overs.
Mozambique vs Gambia prediction: Mozambique at 78%
We back Mozambique at 77.6%. Mozambique beat Gambia by 40 runs on 8 December 2022 and by six wickets on 24 October 2024.
Both prices sit under our fair odds, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced and the toss is the angle: bat first at 76%. Mozambique play Nigeria next, on 23 October 2026. Gambia play Uganda the same day.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mozambique | 77.6% | 82.2% | 1.18 | 1.29 |
| Gambia | 22.4% | 17.8% | 4.30 | 4.46 |
The match-winner market is efficiently priced. Mozambique at 1.18 sit under our fair odds of 1.29, and Gambia at 4.30 under our fair 4.46. The toss is the angle, where our call is bat first at 76%. Odds captured on 21 October 2026.
Our model is 4.6 points below the market on Mozambique. Here's why. Lesotho bowled Mozambique out for 95 on 20 October 2026, after Mozambique had beaten Lesotho at the Eswatini T20 Tri-Series in June 2026. The 24 October 2024 meeting with Gambia also went deep: Gambia made 142 for 5, and Mozambique passed it with seven balls left.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C 2026
Mozambique vs Gambiaodds
21 Oct 2026 · 14:00 IST
Match winner: Mozambique 1.20 at WinWin, Melbet; Gambia 4.92 at PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 12:25–12:30 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1MOZ | 2GM | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Mozambique ▼1.14 | 2 · Gambia ▲4.90 | Payout92.5% |
 | 1 · Mozambique ▲1.20 | 2 · Gambia ▼4.43 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Mozambique ▲1.20 | 2 · Gambia ▼4.43 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Mozambique ▼1.17 | 2 · Gambia ▲4.92 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Mozambique ▼1.17 | 2 · Gambia ▲4.92 | Payout95.0% |
| Highest | 1 · Mozambique1.20 | 2 · Gambia4.92 | Payout– |
1X2: Mozambique 1.21 at WinWin, Melbet; Tie 25.00 at WinWin, Melbet, PlanBet, 1xBet; Gambia 4.95 at PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 12:25–12:30 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1MOZ | XTie | 2GM | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Mozambique ▲1.21 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Gambia ▼4.45 | Payout91.7% |
| 1 · Mozambique ▲1.21 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Gambia ▼4.45 | Payout91.7% |
| 1 · Mozambique ▼1.17 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Gambia ▲4.95 | Payout91.7% |
| 1 · Mozambique ▼1.17 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Gambia ▲4.95 | Payout91.7% |
| Highest | 1 · Mozambique1.21 | X · Tie25.00 | 2 · Gambia4.95 | Payout– |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mozambique vs Gambia in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C?
Our AI model predicts Mozambique to beat Gambia, with a 77.6% win probability, at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, Abuja on 21 October 2026. Mozambique beat Gambia by six wickets on 24 October 2024.
What is the toss prediction for Mozambique vs Gambia?
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 76% for Mozambique vs Gambia in Abuja. Lesotho and Nigeria both won the toss and batted against these two sides in the opening round, on 20 October 2026.
What are the odds for Mozambique vs Gambia?
At the time of writing, 21 October 2026, Mozambique are 1.18 and Gambia 4.30. Our fair odds are 1.29 and 4.46, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced.
Who are the key players for Mozambique and Gambia?
For Mozambique, Joao Hou made 49 off 45 balls against Lesotho on 20 October 2026. For Gambia, Andre Jarju made 39 off 38 balls against Nigeria on 20 October 2026.
Have Mozambique and Gambia played each other before?
Yes. Mozambique beat Gambia by 40 runs (DLS method) on 8 December 2022 and by six wickets on 24 October 2024, both in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group B.
How does the Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C work?
Six teams, including Mozambique and Gambia, play each other once in Abuja in October 2026. The top two reach the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Regional Final in 2027.
