Australia Women vs New Zealand Women 1st T20I Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Australia Women predicted to win with 88% probability
Australia Women
New Zealand Women 12%New Zealand Women tour of Australia 2026 T20I Series
Australia Women vs New Zealand Womenodds
18 Oct 2026 · 13:45 IST
Match winner: Australia Women 1.12 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet; New Zealand Women 7.90 at Dafabet; checked 19:39–19:40 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1AUS-W | 2NZ-W | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Australia Women 1.08 | 2 · New Zealand Women 7.90 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Australia Women 1.12 | 2 · New Zealand Women 6.00 | Payout94.4% |
 | 1 · Australia Women 1.12 | 2 · New Zealand Women 6.00 | Payout94.4% |
 | 1 · Australia Women 1.12 | 2 · New Zealand Women 6.00 | Payout94.4% |
 | 1 · Australia Women 1.12 | 2 · New Zealand Women 6.00 | Payout94.4% |
 | 1 · Australia Women 1.12 | 2 · New Zealand Women 6.00 | Payout94.4% |
| Highest | 1 · Australia Women1.12 | 2 · New Zealand Women7.90 | Payout– |
1X2: Australia Women 1.121, Tie 25.00, New Zealand Women 6.03 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet; checked 19:40 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1AUS-W | XTie | 2NZ-W | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Australia Women 1.121 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · New Zealand Women 6.03 | Payout91.1% |
| 1 · Australia Women 1.121 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · New Zealand Women 6.03 | Payout91.1% |
| 1 · Australia Women 1.121 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · New Zealand Women 6.03 | Payout91.1% |
| 1 · Australia Women 1.121 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · New Zealand Women 6.03 | Payout91.1% |
| 1 · Australia Women 1.121 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · New Zealand Women 6.03 | Payout91.1% |
Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 52%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Australia Women predicted to win with 88% probability
- • Australia Women won the T20 World Cup final against England Women by seven wickets at Lord's on 5 July 2026
- • Australia Women won all three T20Is on their tour of New Zealand in March 2025
- • Toss: field first, with dew likely in the second innings of an evening game
- • Fairly priced at 1.08 and 7.90; our model sits 3.1 points below the market on Australia Women
Australia Women are our pick at 88%.
Our AI model predicts an Australia Women win over New Zealand Women in the 1st T20I at North Sydney Oval, Sydney on Sunday 18 October 2026, starting at 1:45 pm IST (08:15 UTC). It opens a three-match series, with the other two games on 20 and 22 October 2026, and the Rose Bowl trophy now covers the T20Is between the two sides as well.
Can the world champions carry their World Cup form home?
Australia Women arrive as T20 world champions. They beat England Women by seven wickets with 17 balls remaining in the final at Lord's on 5 July 2026. England Women made 150 for 4. Australia Women reached 153 for 3 in 17.1 overs.
Beth Mooney top-scored in that final with 64 off 49 balls against England Women on 5 July 2026. Phoebe Litchfield made 48 off 35 balls in the same chase.
Australia Women then won all three ODIs against Bangladesh Women at Allan Border Field, Brisbane, on 9, 11 and 14 October 2026.
Sophie Molineux is fit to captain after a hip injury kept her out of the Bangladesh ODIs, in which Tahlia McGrath led the side. Phoebe Litchfield is in doubt with a hip-muscle strain from the second ODI against Bangladesh Women.
Can New Zealand Women reset after a short World Cup?
New Zealand went out in the group stage of the 2026 T20 World Cup with two wins from five games. West Indies Women beat them by seven wickets at Southampton on 13 June 2026.
Their two wins came by four runs against Ireland Women at Southampton on 19 June 2026, and by six wickets against Scotland Women at Bristol on 23 June 2026.
England Women then beat them by nine wickets at The Oval on 27 June 2026. New Zealand have played no international since; their only game was a tour match against a Governor-General's XI in Sydney on 15 October 2026, which they lost.
Melie Kerr leads the squad under interim head coach Dean Brownlie. Eden Carson and Bella James are recalled, and Izzy Gaze is out after thumb surgery, which leaves Polly Inglis as the wicketkeeper.
Key matchups: Australia Women's top order against Melie Kerr
Beth Mooney vs Melie Kerr: Beth Mooney anchored the World Cup final chase. Melie Kerr is New Zealand's captain and their main threat with bat and ball, and she made 66 off 47 balls against Australia Women in Wellington on 26 March 2025.
Annabel Sutherland vs New Zealand's middle order: Annabel Sutherland took 4 for 35 in four overs against New Zealand Women in Wellington on 26 March 2025. Brooke Halliday and Georgia Plimmer are the batters she is likely to meet.
Australia Women's spin vs the middle overs: Sophie Molineux's left-arm spin and Georgia Wareham's leg-spin are two of Australia Women's spin options once the powerplay ends.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
The sides have not met in a T20I since 26 March 2025, when Australia Women made 180 for 4 at Sky Stadium, Wellington and won by eight runs.
Australia Women won all three T20Is on their tour of New Zealand in March 2025. At Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui on 23 March 2025, they made 204 for 3 and won by 82 runs. At the 2024 T20 World Cup in Sharjah on 8 October 2024, they won by 60 runs after bowling New Zealand Women out for 88.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
North Sydney Oval, Sydney hosts all three T20Is of the series. The last women's T20I here went to West Indies Women, who beat Australia Women by seven wickets on 2 October 2023, chasing down Australia Women's 212 for 6.
- Pitch: A ground where big totals have been chased: West Indies Women made 213 for 3 in 19.5 overs on 2 October 2023, and Australia Women reached 149 for 2 in 13.2 overs against West Indies Women on 1 October 2023.
- Weather: An evening game in Sydney, with dew likely to arrive during the second innings.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — dew should make the ball harder to grip in the second innings of an evening game, so we put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 52%. Our full pre-toss call for this match is on the dedicated toss page.
Match analysis: where the 1st T20I will be won and lost
New Zealand need a long innings from their captain. In the last meeting on 26 March 2025 they finished on 172 for 8, eight runs short, with Melie Kerr making 66.
Australia Women's middle overs are the hardest phase to beat, with Annabel Sutherland, Georgia Wareham, Alana King and Sophie Molineux all bowling options.
Dew is the second-innings factor. The women's T20Is at North Sydney Oval on 1 and 2 October 2023 were both won by the side batting second, which fits our call to bowl first.
Australia Women vs New Zealand Women prediction: Australia Women to win the 1st T20I
Our AI model gives Australia Women an 88% chance of winning the 1st T20I at North Sydney Oval on 18 October 2026. They are the T20 world champions, and New Zealand Women have not played an international since 27 June 2026.
The price agrees on the pick; the value angle is the toss, where our call is to bowl first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia Women | 88.2% | 91.3% | 1.08 | 1.13 |
| New Zealand Women | 11.8% | 8.7% | 7.90 | 8.47 |
Efficiently priced. Australia Women at 1.08 sit under our fair odds of 1.13, and New Zealand Women at 7.90 sit under 8.47, so the match-winner market has this about right. The sharper angle is the toss, where our call is field first. Odds captured on 16 October 2026.
Our model is 3.1 points below the market on Australia Women. Here's why. With its margin removed, the price makes Australia Women 91.3% against our 88.2%, the same favourite. Phoebe Litchfield is in doubt with a hip-muscle strain, and Sophie Molineux is back from a hip injury, so two of Australia Women's World Cup-winning side carry questions into the opener. New Zealand Women also showed they can beat a top side in this format, winning by 14 runs against England Women at Canterbury on 23 May 2026, and their last meeting with Australia Women was decided by eight runs.
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Australia Women vs New Zealand Women in the 1st T20I?
Our AI model predicts Australia Women to beat New Zealand Women, with an 88% win probability, in the 1st T20I at North Sydney Oval, Sydney on 18 October 2026. Australia Women won the T20 World Cup final against England Women by seven wickets at Lord's on 5 July 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Australia Women vs New Zealand Women?
Field first. For the 1st T20I at North Sydney Oval on 18 October 2026, we put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 52%, because dew should make the ball harder to grip in the second innings of an evening game.
What are the odds for Australia Women vs New Zealand Women?
Australia Women are priced at 1.08 and New Zealand Women at 7.90 for the 1st T20I on 18 October 2026, with the odds captured on 16 October 2026. Our fair odds are 1.13 and 8.47, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced on our numbers.
Is Phoebe Litchfield fit for Australia Women against New Zealand Women?
Phoebe Litchfield is in doubt for the 1st T20I on 18 October 2026 with a hip-muscle strain she picked up in the second ODI against Bangladesh Women. Sophie Molineux is fit to captain Australia Women after missing the Bangladesh ODIs with a hip injury.
Who is in the New Zealand Women squad for the T20Is in Australia?
Melie Kerr captains New Zealand Women for the three T20Is in October 2026, with Dean Brownlie as interim head coach. Eden Carson and Bella James are recalled, and Izzy Gaze is unavailable after thumb surgery.
When did Australia Women and New Zealand Women last play a T20I?
Australia Women and New Zealand Women last met in a T20I on 26 March 2025 at Sky Stadium, Wellington, where Australia Women made 180 for 4 and won by eight runs. Australia Women won all three T20Is on that March 2025 tour of New Zealand.
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