Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Match 1 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Pakistan predicted to win with 66.4% probability
Pakistan
Sri Lanka 34%Pakistan ODI Tri-Series 2026
Pakistan vs Sri Lankaodds
18 Oct 2026 · 13:30 IST
Match winner: Pakistan 1.40 at Dafabet; Sri Lanka 3.05 at Dafabet; checked 19:50–19:51 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1PAK | 2SL | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Pakistan 1.40 | 2 · Sri Lanka 3.05 | Payout96.0% |
 | 1 · Pakistan 1.397 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.919 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Pakistan 1.397 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.919 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Pakistan 1.397 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.919 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Pakistan 1.397 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.919 | Payout94.5% |
| Highest | 1 · Pakistan1.40 | 2 · Sri Lanka3.05 | Payout– |
1X2: Pakistan 1.399, Tie 50.00, Sri Lanka 2.929 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa; checked 19:50 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1PAK | XTie | 2SL | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Pakistan 1.399 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.929 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Pakistan 1.399 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.929 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Pakistan 1.399 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.929 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Pakistan 1.399 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Sri Lanka 2.929 | Payout92.9% |
Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We expect the toss winner to field.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Pakistan predicted to win with 66.4% probability
- • Pakistan beat Sri Lanka in all three ODIs at this ground in November 2025 (11, 14 and 16 November)
- • Sri Lanka, led by Kusal Mendis, beat England at Headingley on 24 September 2026 but lost the other two games of that series
- • We expect the toss winner to field first, a 75% call
- • Sri Lanka at 3.05 are just above our fair 2.98, a small 2.5% edge; Pakistan at 1.40 are below our fair 1.51
Pakistan are our pick at 66.4%.
Our AI model predicts a Pakistan win over Sri Lanka in Match 1 of the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on Sunday 18 October 2026, starting 1:30 pm IST (08:00 UTC). England are the third side, each team meets the other two twice, and the top two play the final in Lahore on 31 October 2026.
Pakistan's one-day form since the Bangladesh series
Pakistan's March series in Mirpur started badly. Bangladesh beat them by eight wickets on 11 March 2026, bowling them out for 114. Pakistan won the second game by 128 runs (DLS method) two days later, then lost the decider by 11 runs on 15 March.
The home series against Australia went better. At this ground on 30 May 2026, Arafat Minhas took 5 for 32 in 10 overs as Australia were bowled out for 200, and Babar Azam made 69 off 94 balls in a five-wicket win. Australia levelled with a 41-run win in Lahore on 2 June.
Shaheen Shah Afridi, Pakistan's ODI captain, then took 3 for 30 in eight overs against Australia in Lahore on 4 June 2026, and Pakistan won that game by four wickets. It was their last ODI before this tournament.
Sri Lanka arrive from England under Kusal Mendis
Kusal Mendis captains Sri Lanka in this series. England beat them by 89 runs at Chester-le-Street on 22 September 2026, bowling them out for 176 in 37 overs.
Sri Lanka hit back at Headingley on 24 September 2026, making 321 for 6 and holding England to 305 for 9 for a 16-run win. The series ended badly at The Oval on 27 September, where England made 355 for 7 and won by 223 runs.
Their June trip to West Indies brought one result. Kusal Mendis made 72 off 62 balls and Dushmantha Chameera took 4 for 67 in 10 overs in a 41-run win at Kingston on 3 June 2026, and rain wiped out the other two games. Avishka Fernando is back in the squad for this tri-series.
Key Matchups: Babar Azam, Kusal Mendis and the new ball
Babar Azam vs Dushmantha Chameera: Babar Azam made 102 not out off 119 balls against Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi on 14 November 2025 and was player of the match. Dushmantha Chameera took 2 for 58 in 10 overs against Pakistan in that 14 November 2025 game.
Kusal Mendis vs Haris Rauf: Kusal Mendis made 34 off 54 balls against Pakistan at this ground on 16 November 2025. Haris Rauf took 4 for 61 in 10 overs against Sri Lanka here (11 November 2025).
Salman Ali Agha vs Sri Lanka's attack: Salman Ali Agha made 105 not out off 87 balls against Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi on 11 November 2025. Pakistan reached 299 for 5 that day and won by six runs.
Fakhar Zaman and Abrar Ahmed: In the 14 November 2025 game, Fakhar Zaman made 78 off 93 balls against Sri Lanka. Abrar Ahmed took 3 for 41 in 10 overs against Sri Lanka in the same 14 November 2025 game.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Pakistan lead the all-time ODI record against Sri Lanka, and they won all three meetings at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium in November 2025. Pakistan made 299 for 5 and won by six runs in the opening game (11 November). In the second game (14 November) Sri Lanka made 288 for 8, and Pakistan reached 289 for 2 in 48.2 overs to win by eight wickets.
In the 16 November 2025 game Sri Lanka were bowled out for 211, and Pakistan won by six wickets. Before that series, Pakistan beat Sri Lanka by six wickets at the World Cup in Hyderabad on 10 October 2023, running down 344 for 9. Sri Lanka's most recent ODI win in the fixture came in the Asia Cup in Colombo on 14 September 2023, by two wickets (DLS method).
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium, Rawalpindi staged all three ODIs of the November 2025 series between these sides. This is a day/night game: play runs from 13:00 to 20:30 local time, so the second innings is played under lights.
- Recent games here: the side batting second won the 14 and 16 November 2025 games and against Australia on 30 May 2026. Pakistan won batting first with 299 for 5 in the 11 November game.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — Sri Lanka chose to field when they won the toss here on 11 November 2025, and Pakistan did the same on 14 and 16 November 2025 and against Australia on 30 May 2026, so we put the chance that the toss winner fields first at 75%. See our PAK vs SL toss call, locked in before the coin lands.
Match Analysis: where this match will be won and lost
Pakistan won the toss, fielded and won batting second against New Zealand on 27 and 29 April 2023, and they reached 289 for 2 and 215 for 4 batting second against Sri Lanka in November 2025.
Sri Lanka's batting needs a big total if they bat first. Their 321 for 6 at Headingley (24 September 2026) is the kind of score that won them a game. They were bowled out for 176 at Chester-le-Street (22 September) and for 132 at The Oval (27 September).
Match practice favours Sri Lanka. They last played an ODI on 27 September 2026, 21 days before this game, while Pakistan's last ODI was on 4 June 2026, 136 days earlier.
Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Prediction: Pakistan favoured at Rawalpindi
Our AI model gives Pakistan a 66.4% chance of winning, with Sri Lanka at 33.6%. Their three wins over Sri Lanka at this ground in November 2025 and the runs of Babar Azam and Salman Ali Agha in that series make them clear favourites.
The price is the angle. Sri Lanka at 3.05 sit just above our fair 2.98, a small edge on the underdog, and we expect the toss winner to field first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 66.4% | 69.7% | 1.40 | 1.51 |
| Sri Lanka | 33.6% | 30.3% | 3.05 | 2.98 |
A small edge on Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka at 3.05 sit above our fair 2.98, an edge of 2.5% on the underdog, while Pakistan at 1.40 sit below our fair 1.51. Odds captured on 14 October 2026.
Our model is 3.3 points below the market on Pakistan. Here's why. Pakistan have not played an ODI since 4 June 2026, while Sri Lanka played three in England in September. Pakistan also lost two of their three ODIs in Bangladesh in March 2026 (11 and 15 March). The market has Pakistan at 69.7%; we have them at 66.4%, still clear favourites.
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Pakistan vs Sri Lanka in the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series?
Our AI model gives Pakistan a 66.4% chance (66%) of beating Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on 18 October 2026. Pakistan won all three ODIs against Sri Lanka at that ground in November 2025.
What is the toss prediction for Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?
We expect the toss winner to field first at Rawalpindi on 18 October 2026, and we put that chance at 75%. Sri Lanka fielded after winning the toss there on 11 November 2025, and Pakistan fielded after winning it on 14 and 16 November 2025 and on 30 May 2026.
What are the odds for Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?
Pakistan are 1.40 and Sri Lanka 3.05 for the 18 October 2026 game at Rawalpindi. Our fair prices are 1.51 for Pakistan and 2.98 for Sri Lanka, so Sri Lanka carry a small edge of 2.5%.
Who captains Pakistan and Sri Lanka in the ODI tri-series?
Shaheen Shah Afridi captains Pakistan and Kusal Mendis captains Sri Lanka in the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series, which starts with Pakistan vs Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi on 18 October 2026. England are the third team.
When did Pakistan and Sri Lanka last meet in an ODI?
Pakistan beat Sri Lanka by six wickets at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on 16 November 2025, bowling them out for 211. It completed Pakistan's three wins over Sri Lanka in that November 2025 series at the same ground.
What time does the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka match start?
The match starts at 1:30 pm IST (08:00 UTC) on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium. It is a day/night ODI, with play from 13:00 to 20:30 local time.