Canada vs Nepal Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Nepal predicted to beat Canada with 64.8% probability
Nepal
Canada 35%Best odds · match winner
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Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We expect the toss winner to field.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Nepal predicted to beat Canada with 64.8% probability
- • Canada lost to Oman by 41 runs on this ground on 9 October 2026, bowled out for 222 in 48 overs
- • Nepal have won three of the five ODIs between the sides, all at Kirtipur in February 2024
- • Field first is our toss call: Nepal chose to field after winning the toss on 27 and 29 July 2026
- • Nepal at 1.59 sit above our fair 1.54, a 3.0% edge on the favourite
Our AI model backs Nepal at 64.8%.
Our AI model gives Nepal a 64.8% chance of beating Canada in this ICC Cricket World Cup League 2 one-day international at Al Amerat Cricket Ground in Oman on Sunday 11 October 2026. Canada lost to Oman by 41 runs on the same ground on 9 October 2026, and Nepal have won three of the five ODIs these sides have played.
Can Canada recover from their defeat to Oman?
Canada's last League 2 win came at King City on 10 June 2026, when they chased down the Netherlands' 214 by two wickets with one ball to spare. On 12 June the USA beat them by five wickets, and in August at Forthill in Dundee they lost to Scotland by nine runs (7 August), to the UAE by 97 runs (11 August) and to Scotland again by 170 runs (13 August).
The latest defeat came at this ground. Oman won the toss on 9 October 2026, batted, and made 263; Canada were bowled out for 222 in 48 overs and lost by 41 runs. Harsh Thaker took 4 for 37 in seven overs in that game and also made 40 off 53 balls, while Aaditya Varadarajan made 64 off 81 balls.
That match gives Canada one thing Nepal lack: a full game on this surface.
Can Karan KC lead Nepal's bowling again?
Nepal's July in Utrecht went badly. Namibia beat them by eight wickets on 21 July and by three runs on 27 July, and the Netherlands won by six wickets on 23 July and by 57 runs on 29 July 2026.
The bowling held up better than the results. Karan KC took 5 for 29 in ten overs against Namibia in the 27 July game and 4 for 30 in ten overs against the Netherlands two days later, on 29 July. Dipendra Singh Airee added 2 for 30 in five overs in that second match.
At home in May the side looked very different. At Kirtipur, Nepal beat the USA by nine wickets on 16 May, Scotland by six wickets on 18 May and the USA again by 122 runs on 22 May 2026, when they made 317 for 8.
The batting is where the July defeats came from. Aasif Sheikh made 45 off 89 balls against Namibia on 27 July and 38 off 78 against the Netherlands on 29 July, and Rohit Paudel made 41 off 50 in that three-run defeat to Namibia, but Nepal were bowled out for 157 by Namibia on 21 July and by the Netherlands on 23 July.
Key Matchups: Karan KC and the new ball
Karan KC vs Aaditya Varadarajan: Karan KC took 5 for 29 against Namibia on 27 July 2026 and 4 for 30 against the Netherlands on 29 July. Aaditya Varadarajan made 64 off 81 balls against Oman on 9 October, so he has already batted on this pitch.
Harsh Thaker vs Aasif Sheikh: Harsh Thaker's 4 for 37 against Oman was Canada's strongest bowling of the October trip so far. Aasif Sheikh is the batter Nepal lean on to bat long: 89 balls for his 45 against Namibia in the 27 July game and 78 for his 38 against the Netherlands in the 29 July game.
Dipendra Singh Airee vs Harsh Thaker: Dipendra Singh Airee took 2 for 30 in five overs against the Netherlands on 29 July, and Harsh Thaker's 40 off 53 balls against Oman showed Canada's lower order can resist.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Canada and Nepal have met in five one-day internationals, and Nepal have won three. All three Nepal wins came at Kirtipur in February 2024: by seven runs on 8 February, by four wickets on 10 February and by nine wickets on 12 February.
Canada won both League 2 meetings at King City in September 2024, by 103 runs on 16 September and by five wickets on 22 September.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Al Amerat Cricket Ground (Ministry Turf 1), Al Amerat. The ground hosts all six games of this League 2 tri-series between Oman, Canada and Nepal.
- Pitch: The one game played here in this series went to the side batting first: Oman made 263 and bowled Canada out for 222 on 9 October 2026.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — Nepal chose to field after winning the toss on 27 and 29 July 2026. Oman won the toss here on 9 October and batted. We have published our pre-toss call for CAN vs NEP on the toss prediction page.
Match Analysis: where this match will be won and lost
Canada's batting is the swing factor. They were bowled out for 185 in 33.4 overs by the UAE on 11 August and for 177 in 35 overs by Scotland on 13 August, and against Oman on 9 October they lasted 48 overs but still fell 41 runs short.
Nepal's July results hid a bowling unit that kept games close. They held Namibia to 211 for 7 on 27 July and lost by only three runs, with Karan KC taking five of the seven wickets.
Nepal's own batting is the risk. If it folds as it did for 157 twice in July, Canada can win this; if Aasif Sheikh and Rohit Paudel bat deep, Nepal should have enough.
Canada vs Nepal Prediction: Nepal to win in Oman
Our AI model makes Nepal 64.8% favourites, a rounded 65%, with Canada at 35.2%. Nepal have the better head-to-head record and the sharper recent bowling, while Canada lost on this ground on 9 October 2026 and were bowled out twice in August for under 190. At 1.59 Nepal sit above our fair price of 1.54, a 3.0% edge.
Field first is our toss call, and Nepal stay our pick whichever side bats first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 35.2% | 39.5% | 2.36 | 2.84 |
| Nepal | 64.8% | 60.5% | 1.59 | 1.54 |
Nepal are the value side. The available odds of 1.59 on Nepal sit above our fair price of 1.54, a 3.0% edge. Canada at 2.36 are short of our fair 2.84, so the value is with the favourite. Odds captured on 10 October 2026.
Our model is 4.3 points above the market on Nepal. Here's why. Nepal have won three of the five ODIs between these sides. Canada were bowled out for 185 on 11 August, 177 on 13 August and 222 on 9 October 2026, and their last League 2 win came on 10 June. The market looks to be weighing Nepal's July defeats in Utrecht, while our model also credits a bowling attack that held Namibia to 211 for 7 on 27 July.
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Canada vs Nepal in the ICC Cricket World Cup League 2?
Our AI model predicts Nepal to beat Canada with a 64.8% probability at Al Amerat Cricket Ground in Oman on 11 October 2026. Nepal have won three of the five ODIs between the sides, and Canada lost to Oman on the same ground on 9 October 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Canada vs Nepal?
Our toss call for Canada vs Nepal on 11 October 2026 is field first. Nepal chose to field after winning the toss in both of their July games, on 27 and 29 July 2026, although Oman batted after winning the toss on this ground on 9 October.
What are the odds for Canada vs Nepal?
The available odds for Canada vs Nepal on 11 October 2026 are 2.36 on Canada and 1.59 on Nepal. Our fair odds are 2.84 for Canada and 1.54 for Nepal, so Nepal at 1.59 carry a 3.0% edge.
How have Canada and Nepal played in their recent ODIs?
Canada lost to Oman by 41 runs on 9 October 2026, after defeats to Scotland and the UAE at Forthill in August. Nepal lost two games each to Namibia and the Netherlands at Utrecht in July 2026, after beating the USA twice and Scotland once at Kirtipur in May.
What is the head-to-head record between Canada and Nepal in ODIs?
Canada and Nepal have played five ODIs, with Nepal winning three and Canada two. Nepal won all three at Kirtipur in February 2024, and Canada won both League 2 meetings at King City in September 2024.
How did the pitch at Al Amerat play on 9 October 2026?
On 9 October 2026 at Al Amerat Cricket Ground, Oman won the toss, batted first and made 263, then bowled Canada out for 222 in 48 overs to win by 41 runs. It is the only game of this League 2 tri-series played there before Canada meet Nepal on 11 October.
