India vs West Indies 3rd T20I Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
India predicted to win with 78% probability
India
West Indies 22%Best odds · match winner
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Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 86%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • India predicted to win with 78% probability
- • The five-match series is level at 1-1 after West Indies beat India by six wickets in Ranchi (9 October)
- • Shai Hope made 102 not out off 45 balls and Sherfane Rutherford 84 off 37 as West Indies ran down India's 249 for 5
- • We expect the toss winner to field first in Indore
- • India at 1.31 carry a slim 2.6% edge on our numbers
India are our pick at 78%.
Our AI model predicts an India win over West Indies in the 3rd T20I at Holkar Stadium, Indore, on Sunday 11 October 2026, starting 7:00 pm IST (13:30 UTC). The series is level at 1-1. India won by eight wickets in Lucknow (6 October 2026), and West Indies hit back by six wickets in Ranchi three days later.
Can India's batting carry them after 249 was not enough?
India's batting has done its job in both T20Is. In Lucknow, India won the toss and chose to field, bowled West Indies out for 171 in 19.1 overs, and then reached 172 for 2 in 14.4 overs. Shreyas Iyer finished unbeaten on 102 off 43 balls, with Ishan Kishan 37 not out off 27.
In Ranchi, India batted first and made 249 for 5. Sanju Samson hit 82 off 41 balls, Tilak Varma finished on 44 not out off 18, Ishan Kishan made 43 off 22 and Shreyas Iyer 40 off 18.
The worry is the other half of that game. West Indies scored 252 for 4 in 18.3 overs, and Mayank Yadav, with 3 for 36 in three overs, took three of the four wickets. In Lucknow the bowling held up far better: Naman Dhir took 3 for 31 and Axar Patel 2 for 26.
Can Shai Hope and Sherfane Rutherford win another chase for West Indies?
West Indies' batting has run through two players. In Lucknow, Sherfane Rutherford made 56 off 34 balls and Shai Hope 52 off 37, yet West Indies were still bowled out for 171 in 19.1 overs.
In Ranchi the pair went much further. West Indies lost two wickets with only 5 runs on the board, both in the first over, both to Mayank Yadav. Hope then made 102 not out off 45 balls, with nine sixes, and Rutherford added 84 off 37. Romario Shepherd closed the game with 34 not out off 13, and West Indies won with nine balls to spare.
This side can chase a big total against India. Beaten in the first two ODIs (27 and 30 September), West Indies ran down India's 351 for 7 in the third ODI (3 October 2026) and won by five wickets.
Key Matchups: Shai Hope against India's new ball
Shai Hope vs Mayank Yadav: Shai Hope made 52 off 37 balls in Lucknow and 102 not out off 45 in Ranchi. Mayank Yadav took 3 for 36 in three overs in that game and is the bowler most likely to test Hope early.
Sanju Samson vs Roston Chase: Sanju Samson made 82 off 41 balls in Ranchi. Roston Chase slowed India that night, taking 3 for 24 in four overs while Shamar Springer went for 64 in his four.
Shreyas Iyer vs the West Indies attack: Shreyas Iyer has made an unbeaten 102 off 43 balls and 40 off 18 in the two T20Is. He was named player of the match in Lucknow and is the batter West Indies most need to remove early.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
India and West Indies have played 33 men's T20 internationals up to and including 9 October 2026. India have won 21, West Indies 11, and one match ended with no result. Before this series, the sides met at Eden Gardens, Kolkata, on 1 March 2026 in the T20 World Cup Super 8s, where India made 199 for 5 in 19.2 overs to beat West Indies' 195 for 4 by five wickets.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Holkar Stadium, Indore. The 3rd T20I is a night match, starting at 7:00 pm IST (13:30 UTC).
- Pitch: Holkar Stadium has staged four men's T20Is. India made 260 for 5 against Sri Lanka there (22 December 2017), and South Africa made 227 for 3 against India (4 October 2022).
- Last T20I here: India beat Afghanistan by six wickets on 14 January 2024, reaching 173 for 4 in 15.4 overs after Afghanistan were all out for 172.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — India chose to field after winning the toss in Lucknow, and West Indies did the same in Ranchi. We put the chance that the toss winner fields first at 86%. Our IND vs WI pre-toss pick goes on the public toss page and gets tracked once the toss is done.
Match Analysis: where the 3rd T20I will be won and lost
India have scored freely in both T20Is, so the game turns on their bowling. West Indies made 252 for 4 in Ranchi, and the two wickets Mayank Yadav took in the first over were not enough once Hope and Rutherford got going.
West Indies need the same two batters to fire. When Hope and Rutherford both passed 50 in Lucknow, the rest of the order still collapsed to 171 all out, and India chased that down with 32 balls remaining.
Indore has rewarded big first-innings totals. Of the four T20Is here, the side batting first won with 260 for 5 in 2017 and 227 for 3 in 2022, and the chasing side won the other two, in 2020 and 2024.
India vs West Indies Prediction: India to Win the 3rd T20I
Our AI model gives India a 78% chance of winning in Indore, with West Indies at 22%. India's batting depth, from Samson and Kishan at the top to Iyer and Tilak Varma behind them, is the main reason they are clear favourites despite the Ranchi defeat.
The market broadly agrees with us. India at 1.31 are priced just above our fair 1.28, a slim edge, while West Indies at 4.30 are shorter than our fair 4.61. We expect the toss winner to field first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 78.3% | 77.1% | 1.31 | 1.28 |
| West Indies | 21.7% | 22.9% | 4.30 | 4.61 |
A slim edge on India. At 1.31, India are priced just above our fair 1.28, a 2.6% edge. West Indies at 4.30 sit under our fair 4.61, so the match-winner value is with the favourite. Odds captured on 9 October 2026.
Our model is 1.2 points above the market on India. That is close agreement. India's 172 for 2 in Lucknow and 249 for 5 in Ranchi keep them clear favourites in Indore, even after the defeat.
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win India vs West Indies in the 3rd T20I?
Our AI model gives India a 78.3% chance (78%) against West Indies at Holkar Stadium, Indore, on 11 October 2026. The series is level at 1-1 after India won in Lucknow (6 October) and West Indies won in Ranchi (9 October).
What is the toss prediction for India vs West Indies?
We expect the toss winner to field first at Holkar Stadium, Indore, on 11 October 2026, and we put that chance at 86%. Both toss winners in this series chose to field: India in Lucknow (6 October) and West Indies in Ranchi (9 October 2026).
What are the best odds for India vs West Indies?
The best available prices for the 3rd T20I are 1.31 on India and 4.30 on West Indies. Our fair prices are 1.28 and 4.61, so India carry a 2.6% edge on our numbers.
What happened in the 2nd T20I between India and West Indies?
West Indies beat India by six wickets in Ranchi on 9 October 2026. India made 249 for 5, and West Indies reached 252 for 4 in 18.3 overs, with Shai Hope 102 not out off 45 balls and Sherfane Rutherford 84 off 37.
What is the India vs West Indies T20I head-to-head record?
India and West Indies have played 33 men's T20 internationals up to and including 9 October 2026. India have won 21, West Indies 11, and one match had no result.
What is the pitch like at Holkar Stadium, Indore?
Holkar Stadium in Indore has staged four men's T20Is. India made 260 for 5 against Sri Lanka there (22 December 2017), South Africa made 227 for 3 against India (4 October 2022), and India chased in the last T20I here, against Afghanistan on 14 January 2024.
What time does India vs West Indies 3rd T20I start?
The 3rd T20I starts at 7:00 pm IST (13:30 UTC) on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Holkar Stadium, Indore.
