Canada vs Nepal Match 138 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Nepal predicted to win with 69% probability
Nepal
Canada 31%ICC Cricket World Cup League 2
Canada vs Nepalodds
17 Oct 2026 · 11:00 IST
Match winner: Canada 2.533, Nepal 1.52 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet; checked 14:45 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1CAN | 2NEP | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Canada 2.533 | 2 · Nepal 1.52 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Canada 2.533 | 2 · Nepal 1.52 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Canada 2.533 | 2 · Nepal 1.52 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Canada 2.533 | 2 · Nepal 1.52 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Canada 2.533 | 2 · Nepal 1.52 | Payout95.0% |
1X2: Canada 2.541, Tie 50.00, Nepal 1.522 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet; checked 14:45 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1CAN | XTie | 2NEP | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Canada 2.541 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Nepal 1.522 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Canada 2.541 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Nepal 1.522 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Canada 2.541 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Nepal 1.522 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Canada 2.541 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Nepal 1.522 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Canada 2.541 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Nepal 1.522 | Payout93.4% |
Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 58%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Nepal predicted to win with 69% probability
- • Nepal beat Canada by 24 runs at this ground on 11 October 2026, when Rohit Paudel scored 101 off 127 balls
- • Canada beat Oman by 58 runs in their most recent game (15 October 2026), after defeats by Oman (9 October) and Nepal (11 October)
- • Bat first is our toss call, at 58%
- • Nepal at 1.52 is a 5.2% edge on our fair odds of 1.45
Nepal are our pick at 69%.
Our AI model predicts a Nepal win over Canada in this ICC Cricket World Cup League 2 one-day international at Al Amerat Cricket Ground on 17 October 2026. Nepal won the meeting on the same ground six days earlier by 24 runs, and the match starts at 11:00 IST (05:30 UTC).
Can Canada repeat the batting that beat Oman by 58 runs?
Canada arrive with a win. They won the toss against Oman on 15 October 2026, batted, and made 256 all out in 50 overs, with Samit Gohel scoring 67 off 85 balls and Aaditya Varadarajan 55 off 78. Zahid Shirzad (3 for 48) and Sheel Patel (3 for 38) led the attack as Oman were bowled out for 198 in 46.3 overs.
That win followed two defeats here. Oman beat Canada by 41 runs on 9 October 2026, despite 64 off 81 balls from Varadarajan and 4 for 37 in seven overs from Harsh Thaker.
The 24-run defeat by Nepal on 11 October 2026 is the one Canada will study. They won the toss and bowled, and Akhil Kumar took 4 for 68 in 10 overs, but Canada were then dismissed for 211 in 48.4 overs. Aaron Johnson's 44 off 49 balls was their top score that day.
Rohit Paudel and Sandeep Lamichhane give Nepal the edge
Nepal have won both of their games at this ground in October 2026, beating Canada by 24 runs on 11 October and Oman by 113 runs on 13 October. They batted first in each.
Rohit Paudel is the batter Canada have to solve. He made 101 off 127 balls in the win over Canada (11 October 2026), the innings behind Nepal's 235 all out in 50 overs, and followed it with 61 off 67 in the win over Oman (13 October 2026).
The Oman game showed the depth behind him. Nepal batted after winning the toss and made 263 for 8 in 50 overs, with Arjun Kumal scoring 40 off 59 balls and Karan KC 40 off 16 in that innings (13 October 2026). Nandan Yadav then returned 3 for 12 in six overs and Sandeep Lamichhane 3 for 28 in nine, as Oman were bowled out for 150 in 40 overs.
The wickets were shared in the Canada game: Lamichhane, Lalit Rajbanshi, Karan KC and Nandan Yadav took two each on 11 October 2026.
Key Matchups: Rohit Paudel, Sandeep Lamichhane and Akhil Kumar
Rohit Paudel vs Zahid Shirzad: Shirzad took Paudel's wicket on 11 October 2026, but only after Paudel had made 101 off 127 balls. Shirzad's 3 for 48 in nine overs in the win over Oman (15 October 2026) means he arrives in form.
Sandeep Lamichhane vs Aaron Johnson: Johnson made 44 off 49 balls in the 11 October 2026 defeat before Lamichhane dismissed him, on a day when Lamichhane finished with 2 for 33 in 10 overs. Canada need Johnson to last longer this time.
Akhil Kumar vs Nepal's top order: Kumar took 4 for 68 in 10 overs in the 11 October 2026 game, but Nepal still reached 235. Canada need his wickets to come earlier.
Nandan Yadav vs Aaditya Varadarajan: Varadarajan made 64 off 81 balls (9 October 2026) and 55 off 78 (15 October 2026), both in games with Oman. Yadav's 3 for 12 in six overs came in Nepal's win over Oman (13 October 2026), and their duel will shape Canada's innings.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Nepal won all three ODIs of the February 2024 series at Kirtipur: by 7 runs on 8 February, by four wickets on 10 February and by nine wickets on 12 February.
Canada then won both League 2 meetings at King City in September 2024, by 103 runs on 16 September and by five wickets on 22 September. Nepal won the most recent ODI between the sides by 24 runs on this ground (11 October 2026).
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Al Amerat Cricket Ground (Ministry Turf 1), Al Amerat. Canada v Nepal is played here on 17 October 2026, starting at 11:00 IST (05:30 UTC).
- Ground: The side batting first has won all four ODIs here in October 2026: Oman against Canada (9 October), Nepal against Canada (11 October), Nepal against Oman (13 October) and Canada against Oman (15 October 2026).
- Totals: The first-innings totals in those four games were 263, 235, 263 for 8 and 256.
- Toss: Toss call: Bat first — Nepal and Canada both chose to bat after their most recent toss wins here, on 13 and 15 October 2026. We log every toss call publicly — the Canada vs Nepal pick is on the toss page.
Match Analysis: where Canada vs Nepal will be won and lost
The first innings has decided every game on this ground in October 2026. Oman defended 263 against Canada, Nepal defended 235 against Canada and 263 for 8 against Oman, and Canada defended 256 against Oman on 15 October.
That makes the toss the first decision to watch. Canada fielded after winning it on 11 October and lost by 24 runs; four days later they batted and won by 58. We expect the toss winner to bat first.
Canada's batting is the swing factor. Their three totals here in October 2026 were 222, 211 and 256, and only the 256 won a game. To overturn the 24-run defeat they need Samit Gohel and Aaditya Varadarajan to repeat their 15 October innings of 67 and 55.
Canada vs Nepal Prediction: Nepal to complete the double
Our AI model gives Nepal a 69.2% chance of beating Canada in this League 2 match, and the market average has Nepal at 65.7%.
Nepal at 1.52 sits above our fair odds of 1.45, a 5.2% edge, while Canada at 2.65 sits below our fair 3.25. Our toss call is bat first, and the side batting first has won all four games on this ground in October 2026.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 30.8% | 34.3% | 2.65 | 3.25 |
| Nepal | 69.2% | 65.7% | 1.52 | 1.45 |
Nepal at 1.52 is the value. Our fair odds on Nepal are 1.45, so 1.52 is a 5.2% edge. Canada at 2.65 sits below our fair 3.25. Our toss call is bat first. Odds captured on 16 October 2026.
Our model is 3.5 points above the market on Nepal. Here's why. Nepal beat this Canada side by 24 runs on the same ground on 11 October 2026, then beat Oman by 113 runs two days later. Across the six ODIs between the sides, Nepal won the three at Kirtipur in February 2024 and the 11 October meeting, while Canada's two wins came at King City in September 2024.
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Canada vs Nepal in the ICC Cricket World Cup League 2?
Our AI model predicts Nepal to beat Canada, with a 69.2% win probability, in the League 2 one-day international at Al Amerat Cricket Ground on 17 October 2026. Nepal beat Canada by 24 runs on the same ground on 11 October 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Canada vs Nepal?
Bat first. For Canada vs Nepal on 17 October 2026, we put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 58%. Nepal and Canada both batted after their most recent toss wins on this ground, on 13 and 15 October 2026.
What are the best odds for Canada vs Nepal?
At the time of writing on 16 October 2026, the best available prices for Canada vs Nepal are 1.52 on Nepal and 2.65 on Canada. Our fair odds are 1.45 for Nepal and 3.25 for Canada, so Nepal at 1.52 is a 5.2% edge.
What happened when Canada played Nepal on 11 October 2026?
Canada won the toss and bowled at Al Amerat on 11 October 2026. Nepal made 235 all out in 50 overs, with Rohit Paudel scoring 101 off 127 balls, and Canada were all out for 211 in 48.4 overs, so Nepal won by 24 runs.
What time does Canada vs Nepal start?
Canada vs Nepal starts at 11:00 IST (05:30 UTC) on Saturday 17 October 2026, at Al Amerat Cricket Ground (Ministry Turf 1) in Oman.
Who won the recent ODIs between Canada and Nepal?
Canada beat Nepal twice at King City in September 2024, by 103 runs on 16 September and by five wickets on 22 September. Nepal then beat Canada by 24 runs at Al Amerat on 11 October 2026, after winning all three ODIs of the February 2024 series at Kirtipur.
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