New South Wales vs Tasmania Match 8 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
New South Wales predicted to win with 63% probability
New South Wales
Tasmania 37%Best odds · match winner
| NSW | TAS | |
|---|---|---|
| DafaBet | 1.65 | 2.24 |
| 200% up to ₹20,000 | ||
Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We expect the toss winner to field.
Toss preview ›NSW vs TAS Playing 11
New South Wales
- Sean Abbott
- Kurtis Patterson
- Liam Hatcher
- Charlie Stobo † (c)
- Oliver Davies
- Jack Edwards
- William Salzmann
- Bryce Jackson
- Ryan Hicks
- Reiley Mark
- Riley Kingsell
Tasmania
- Jordan Silk
- Ben McDermott
- Jake Doran † (c)
- Tom Rogers
- Caleb Jewell
- Bradley Hope
- Nivethan Radhakrishnan
- Tim Ward
- Will Prestwidge
- Teague Wyllie
- Raf MacMillan
(c) captain, † wicketkeeper
Key Takeaways
- • New South Wales predicted to win with 63% probability
- • New South Wales beat Queensland (22 September) and Victoria (25 September 2026), and won last season's final against Tasmania
- • New South Wales are without Nic Maddinson, Lachlan Shaw, Ben Dwarshuis and Tanveer Sangha, who are on national duty
- • Field first is our toss call, at 70%, with rain forecast in Sydney
- • New South Wales at 1.65 carry a 3.3% edge on our fair odds of 1.60
New South Wales are our pick at 63%.
Our AI model predicts a New South Wales win over Tasmania in the One-Day Cup 8th Match at Cricket Central, Sydney, starting at 4:30 am IST on 13 October 2026 (23:00 UTC on 12 October). New South Wales have beaten Queensland and Victoria this season, on 22 and 25 September 2026. Tasmania beat Western Australia (20 September) and lost to South Australia by seven runs three days later.
Can New South Wales cover for four players on national duty?
New South Wales chased down Queensland's 358 at Allan Border Field on 22 September 2026, reaching 359 for 6 in 49 overs. Kurtis Patterson made 63 off 32 balls in that win (22 September). Riley Kingsell added 79 off 82 balls in the same 22 September chase.
William Salzmann finished 70 not out off 65 balls in the Brisbane chase of 22 September 2026. Jake Scott was with him at the end, unbeaten on 52 off 39 balls in that Brisbane game.
The squad for Sydney is thinner. Cricket NSW has named 13 players without Nic Maddinson, who is with Australia's Test squad in South Africa, and without Lachlan Shaw, Ben Dwarshuis and Tanveer Sangha, who are with Australia A. Nic Maddinson made 126 off 127 balls against Victoria on 25 September 2026. Kurtis Patterson returns after missing that game with a groin injury.
Can Tasmania's batting carry them past New South Wales?
Tasmania lost to South Australia by seven runs at Karen Rolton Oval on 23 September 2026, finishing on 376 for 8 in reply to 383 for 7. Jordan Silk made 142 off 106 balls against South Australia in that game.
Tim Ward added 61 off 45 balls in the same chase against South Australia (23 September). Three days earlier, at the WACA Ground, Tasmania bowled Western Australia out for 115 in 30.2 overs and won by nine wickets.
Caleb Jewell finished 41 not out off 43 balls against Western Australia on 20 September 2026, as Tasmania reached 117 for 1 in 16.2 overs.
Key Matchups: Jake Scott against Jordan Silk
Jake Scott vs Jordan Silk: Jake Scott took 3 for 48 against Victoria (25 September 2026), and he bats as well, as his unbeaten 52 in Brisbane showed. Jordan Silk is the Tasmania batter New South Wales most need to remove early, after his 142 against South Australia.
Kurtis Patterson vs the new ball: Kurtis Patterson's 63 off 32 balls in Brisbane (22 September) set up a chase of 359. Back from the groin injury, he is New South Wales' quickest way to a big total.
William Salzmann vs Caleb Jewell: both have finished chases unbeaten this season, William Salzmann with 70 not out in Brisbane (22 September) and Caleb Jewell with 41 not out against Western Australia on 20 September 2026.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
New South Wales beat Tasmania by four wickets in last season's One-Day Cup final at Bellerive Oval, Hobart on 11 March 2026, a game cut to 22 overs a side by rain. Tasmania made 118 in 20.3 overs, and New South Wales reached 119 for 6 in 20.1 overs.
Earlier that season, in September 2025, Tasmania beat New South Wales by two wickets at Cricket Central, the ground for this match. Tasmania reached 225 for 8 in 49.2 overs that day.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Cricket Central, Sydney. The 8th Match starts at 4:30 am IST on 13 October 2026 (23:00 UTC on 12 October).
- Weather: The Bureau of Meteorology forecast for Sydney Olympic Park on 13 October 2026 gives a 100% chance of rain.
- Ground: Tasmania beat New South Wales here by two wickets in September 2025.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — Tasmania chose to field after winning the toss against Western Australia (20 September) and South Australia (23 September 2026), and rain is forecast. Our toss prediction for New South Wales vs Tasmania is timestamped publicly before the coin lands.
Match Analysis: where New South Wales vs Tasmania will be won and lost
Rain may decide the shape of this game. New South Wales won their last match on the DLS method, by 47 runs against Victoria in the 25 September 2026 game, and last season's final against Tasmania was cut to 22 overs a side.
The New South Wales batting has depth. In the Brisbane win of 22 September, William Salzmann and Jake Scott finished the chase of 359 together. That depth matters more with four players away.
Tasmania can post big totals. Their 376 for 8 against South Australia in the 23 September game came seven runs short, and they need their top order to fire again in Sydney.
New South Wales vs Tasmania Prediction: New South Wales to Win in Sydney
Our AI model gives New South Wales a 62.6% chance of beating Tasmania at Cricket Central. They have won both games this season, against Queensland and Victoria, and they won last season's final against Tasmania on 11 March 2026.
At 1.65, New South Wales sit above our fair odds of 1.60, a 3.3% edge, so keep stakes small. With rain about, the toss is the other angle: we expect the toss winner to field first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | 62.6% | 58.2% | 1.65 | 1.60 |
| Tasmania | 37.4% | 41.8% | 2.24 | 2.67 |
Value on New South Wales. New South Wales at 1.65 sit above our fair odds of 1.60, a 3.3% edge, while Tasmania at 2.24 sit below our fair 2.67. Odds captured on 12 October 2026.
Our model is 4 points above the market on New South Wales. Here's why. New South Wales have won both of their games this season, including the chase of 359 at Allan Border Field, and they beat Tasmania in last season's final on 11 March 2026. Tasmania have won one of their two games this season, against Western Australia (20 September).
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win New South Wales vs Tasmania in the One-Day Cup?
Our AI model predicts New South Wales to beat Tasmania, with a 62.6% win probability, in the One-Day Cup 8th Match at Cricket Central, Sydney on 13 October 2026. New South Wales have beaten Queensland and Victoria this season and won last season's final against Tasmania.
What is the toss prediction for New South Wales vs Tasmania?
Field first. For the 8th Match on 13 October 2026, starting at 4:30 am IST (23:00 UTC on 12 October), we put the chance that the toss winner fields first at 70%. Tasmania fielded after winning the toss against Western Australia on 20 September and South Australia on 23 September 2026.
What are the odds for New South Wales vs Tasmania?
New South Wales are priced at 1.65 and Tasmania at 2.24 for the One-Day Cup match on 13 October 2026. Our fair odds are 1.60 and 2.67, so New South Wales carry a 3.3% edge on our numbers.
Who is missing for New South Wales against Tasmania?
Cricket NSW has named a 13-player squad for the 13 October 2026 match without Nic Maddinson, who is with Australia's Test squad in South Africa, and without Lachlan Shaw, Ben Dwarshuis and Tanveer Sangha, who are with Australia A. Kurtis Patterson returns after missing the 25 September win over Victoria with a groin injury.
Will rain affect New South Wales vs Tasmania at Cricket Central?
Rain is likely. The Bureau of Meteorology forecast for Sydney Olympic Park on 13 October 2026 gives a 100% chance of rain, so a shortened New South Wales vs Tasmania match is possible.
When did New South Wales and Tasmania last meet?
New South Wales beat Tasmania by four wickets in last season's One-Day Cup final at Bellerive Oval, Hobart on 11 March 2026, in a game cut to 22 overs a side by rain.
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