Lesotho vs Mozambique Match 2 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Mozambique predicted to win with 77% probability
Mozambique
Lesotho 23%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 67%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Mozambique predicted to win with 77% probability
- • Mozambique beat Lesotho by 110 runs (2 June), 22 runs (4 June) and 49 runs (6 June 2026) in the Eswatini T20 Tri-Series
- • Joao Hou made 126 off 55 balls in the first of those games, at Malkerns on 2 June 2026
- • Bat first is our toss call, at 67%
- • The match-winner market is efficiently priced, so the toss is the angle
Mozambique to beat Lesotho in Abuja.
Our AI model predicts Mozambique to beat Lesotho with a 77% win probability in the second match of the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C 2026, at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, Abuja. The sides met three times in the Eswatini T20 Tri-Series in June 2026, and Mozambique batted first and won on 2, 4 and 6 June.
Six teams play each other once between 20 and 25 October 2026 at two grounds in Abuja: Nigeria, Gambia, Uganda, Zambia, Lesotho and Mozambique. The top two go through to the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Regional Final in 2027.
Joao Hou and Farruque Nhaduate drive Mozambique's batting
Joao Hou set the tone when these sides met in June. Joao Hou made 126 off 55 balls on 2 June 2026 against Lesotho, as Mozambique posted 217 for 6 and won by 110 runs.
Joao Hou followed that with 93 from 53 balls against Lesotho on 6 June 2026. Mozambique made 209 for 2 that day and won by 49 runs.
Farruque Nhaduate made 78 from 43 balls against Lesotho on 4 June 2026, when Mozambique set 200 for 5 and won by 22 runs. In the final against Eswatini on 7 June 2026, Farruque Nhaduate made 93 from 47 balls. Eswatini still won that final by six wickets.
The bowling has backed the batting up. Jose Bulele took 3 for 23 from his four overs against Lesotho on 2 June 2026, when Lesotho were bowled out for 107 in 15.3 overs. Camate Roposo took 2 for 9 in four overs against Lesotho on 4 June 2026.
Eswatini were a tougher test for Mozambique in that tri-series. Mozambique beat Eswatini by five wickets on 3 June 2026, with 33 balls remaining. Eswatini won the other three games between them: by 44 runs on 2 June, by three wickets on 6 June and by six wickets in the final on 7 June.
Can Lesotho's batters turn a close defeat into a win?
Lesotho came closest to Mozambique on 4 June 2026. Mozambique made 200 for 5 that day. Lesotho replied with 178 for 3 and lost by 22 runs.
Lebona Leokaoke made 61 not out from 50 balls in that chase against Mozambique (4 June 2026). Lebona Leokaoke was unbeaten again on 7 June 2026, with 71 not out from 48 balls against Eswatini.
Lesotho beat Eswatini later in that tri-series. Lesotho made 221 for 6 batting first against Eswatini on 7 June 2026. Eswatini replied with 203 for 5, and Lesotho won by 18 runs.
Chachole Tlali made 57 from 42 balls in Lesotho's game with Eswatini on 3 June 2026. Eswatini won that game by 85 runs.
With the ball, Lefulere Monanthane took 3 for 29 in four overs against Eswatini on 3 June 2026. Lefulere Monanthane also took 2 for 32 from his four overs in the 2 June 2026 game with Mozambique.
Key matchups: Joao Hou against Lesotho's attack
Joao Hou vs Lefulere Monanthane: Joao Hou made 126 off 55 balls on 2 June 2026 against Lesotho. Lefulere Monanthane took 2 for 32 in that Mozambique innings. An early wicket for Lefulere Monanthane is Lesotho's clearest way to keep Mozambique below the 200 mark they reached in each June meeting.
Lebona Leokaoke vs Jose Bulele: Lebona Leokaoke made 61 not out from 50 balls against Mozambique on 4 June 2026. Jose Bulele took 3 for 23 from his four overs on 2 June 2026, the day Lesotho were bowled out for 107.
Chachole Tlali vs Camate Roposo: Chachole Tlali made 57 from 42 balls on 3 June 2026 against Eswatini. Camate Roposo took 2 for 9 in four overs against Lesotho on 4 June 2026.
Farruque Nhaduate vs Lesotho's death bowling: Farruque Nhaduate made 49 not out from 21 balls against Lesotho on 6 June 2026, as Mozambique reached 209 for 2.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Mozambique and Lesotho met three times in the Eswatini T20 Tri-Series at Malkerns Country Club oval in June 2026.
Lesotho won the toss and fielded on 2 June 2026. Mozambique made 217 for 6. Lesotho were bowled out for 107 in 15.3 overs, and Mozambique won by 110 runs.
Lesotho chose to field again on 4 June 2026. Mozambique made 200 for 5. Lesotho replied with 178 for 3 and lost by 22 runs.
Mozambique won the toss and batted on 6 June 2026, making 209 for 2. Lesotho replied with 160 for 8, and Mozambique won by 49 runs.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, Abuja hosts Lesotho v Mozambique, the second match of the qualifier, on Tuesday 20 October 2026.
- Pitch: West Africa Trophy games were played at this ground in December 2025. Zambia made 140 for 8 and beat Rwanda by 24 runs on 11 December 2025. Nigeria made 152 for 7 and beat Zambia by 26 runs on 12 December 2025. Zambia made 145 for 6 and beat Sierra Leone by 20 runs on 14 December 2025.
- Weather: A day game in Abuja.
- Toss: Toss call: Bat first — we put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 67%. Mozambique won the toss and chose to bat against Eswatini (6 June 2026), against Lesotho (6 June 2026) and against Eswatini again in the final (7 June 2026). Lesotho chose to field after winning the toss against Mozambique on 2 and 4 June 2026, and chose to bat after winning it against Eswatini on 4 and 7 June 2026. See our public toss call for LSO vs MOZ on the dedicated page.
Match Analysis: Lesotho need early wickets against Mozambique
Mozambique's pattern against Lesotho was a big first-innings total. Mozambique made 217 for 6, 200 for 5 and 209 for 2 in the June meetings, on 2, 4 and 6 June 2026.
Lesotho's best reply in those games was 178 for 3, on 4 June 2026. Lesotho lost that game by 22 runs.
Lesotho's route is early wickets, before Joao Hou and Farruque Nhaduate get set.
Lesotho can post a total of their own. Lesotho made 221 for 6 batting first against Eswatini on 7 June 2026 and won by 18 runs.
Lesotho vs Mozambique prediction: Mozambique at 77%
We back Mozambique at 76.6%. Mozambique beat Lesotho by 110 runs on 2 June 2026 and by 49 runs on 6 June 2026.
Both prices sit under our fair odds, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced and the toss is the angle: bat first at 67%. Mozambique play Gambia next, on 21 October 2026, and Lesotho play Uganda on 21 October 2026.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lesotho | 23.4% | 22.9% | 3.55 | 4.27 |
| Mozambique | 76.6% | 77.1% | 1.25 | 1.31 |
The match-winner market is efficiently priced. Mozambique at 1.25 sit under our fair odds of 1.31, and Lesotho at 3.55 under our fair 4.27. The toss is the angle, where our call is bat first at 67%. Odds captured on 20 October 2026.
The market broadly agrees with us. It has Mozambique at 77.1%, 0.5 points above our 76.6%.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C 2026
Lesotho vs Mozambiqueodds
20 Oct 2026 · 18:30 IST
Match winner: Lesotho 4.51 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; Mozambique 1.25 at Dafabet; checked 14:18–14:20 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1LSO | 2MOZ | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Lesotho 3.55 | 2 · Mozambique 1.25 | Payout92.4% |
 | 1 · Lesotho ▲4.51 | 2 · Mozambique ▼1.20 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Lesotho ▲4.51 | 2 · Mozambique ▼1.20 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Lesotho ▲4.51 | 2 · Mozambique ▼1.20 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Lesotho ▲4.51 | 2 · Mozambique ▼1.20 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Lesotho ▲4.51 | 2 · Mozambique ▼1.20 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Lesotho ▲4.51 | 2 · Mozambique ▼1.20 | Payout95.0% |
| Highest | 1 · Lesotho4.51 | 2 · Mozambique1.25 | Payout– |
1X2: Lesotho 4.53, Tie 25.00, Mozambique 1.20 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 14:20 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1LSO | XTie | 2MOZ | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Lesotho ▲4.53 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Mozambique ▼1.20 | Payout91.7% |
| 1 · Lesotho ▲4.53 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Mozambique ▼1.20 | Payout91.7% |
| 1 · Lesotho ▲4.53 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Mozambique ▼1.20 | Payout91.7% |
| 1 · Lesotho ▲4.53 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Mozambique ▼1.20 | Payout91.7% |
| 1 · Lesotho ▲4.53 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Mozambique ▼1.20 | Payout91.7% |
| 1 · Lesotho ▲4.53 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Mozambique ▼1.20 | Payout91.7% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Lesotho vs Mozambique in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C?
Our AI model predicts Mozambique to beat Lesotho, with a 76.6% win probability, at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, Abuja on 20 October 2026. Mozambique beat Lesotho by 110 runs at Malkerns on 2 June 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Lesotho vs Mozambique?
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 67% for Lesotho vs Mozambique in Abuja. Mozambique won the toss and batted against Lesotho at Malkerns on 6 June 2026, and won by 49 runs.
What are the odds for Lesotho vs Mozambique?
At the time of writing, 20 October 2026, Mozambique are 1.25 and Lesotho 3.55. Our fair odds are 1.31 and 4.27, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced.
Who are the key players for Lesotho and Mozambique?
For Mozambique, Jose Bulele took 3 for 23 in four overs against Lesotho on 2 June 2026. For Lesotho, Lebona Leokaoke made 61 not out from 50 balls against Mozambique on 4 June 2026.
Have Lesotho and Mozambique played each other before?
Yes. Mozambique beat Lesotho in the Eswatini T20 Tri-Series at Malkerns in June 2026: by 110 runs on 2 June, by 22 runs on 4 June and by 49 runs on 6 June.
How does the Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C work?
Six teams, including Lesotho and Mozambique, play each other once in Abuja between 20 and 25 October 2026. The top two reach the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Regional Final in 2027.
