New Zealand vs India 1st ODI Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
India predicted to win with 62.8% probability
India
New Zealand 37%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 72%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • India predicted to win with 62.8% probability
- • Daryl Mitchell made 131 not out in Rajkot (14 January 2026), then 137 in Indore (18 January 2026), as New Zealand won that ODI series 2-1
- • India beat New Zealand by 4 wickets in the Champions Trophy final in Dubai on 9 March 2025
- • We expect the toss winner to field first, at 72%, in a 3 pm day/night start
- • India's 1.52 sits below our fair 1.59, so the match-winner market is fairly priced and the toss is the angle
India are our pick at 62.8%.
Our AI model gives India a 62.8% chance against New Zealand in the 1st ODI at Eden Park, Auckland, on 4 November 2026. New Zealand won the ODI series in India 2-1 in January 2026. India beat them in the Champions Trophy final in Dubai on 9 March 2025. India also won the five-match T20 series in New Zealand 3-2 before this game.
Can Daryl Mitchell carry New Zealand again at Eden Park?
Daryl Mitchell made 84 from 71 balls against India in Vadodara on 11 January 2026. In Rajkot three days later (14 January 2026), Daryl Mitchell made 131 not out from 117 balls as New Zealand ran down India's 284 for 7 with 15 balls to spare.
Daryl Mitchell then made 137 from 131 balls against India in Indore (18 January 2026). Glenn Phillips added 106 from 88 balls in that game. New Zealand posted 337 for 8 and won by 41 runs to take the series.
Glenn Phillips also made 65 not out from 38 balls against India in the fifth T20 match at Hamilton on 1 November 2026, when New Zealand won by 7 wickets with 12 balls remaining.
Mitchell Santner captains a squad that includes Tom Latham, Will Young and Kyle Jamieson. Tom Latham made 145 not out from 104 balls against India at this ground (25 November 2022).
Can Virat Kohli's form carry India at Eden Park?
Virat Kohli made 93 from 91 balls against New Zealand in Vadodara on 11 January 2026 and was player of the match. India reached 306 for 6 in 49 overs that day and won by 4 wickets.
Virat Kohli then made 124 from 108 balls against New Zealand in Indore (18 January 2026). India were all out for 296 in 46 overs in that chase and lost by 41 runs.
KL Rahul made 112 from 92 balls against New Zealand in Rajkot (14 January 2026). Rohit Sharma made 76 from 83 balls when India beat New Zealand by 4 wickets in the Champions Trophy final in Dubai on 9 March 2025.
Shubman Gill captains the ODI squad, with Shreyas Iyer as vice-captain. Shreyas Iyer made 50 from 23 balls against New Zealand in Hamilton on 1 November 2026, in the fifth T20 match of the tour.
Key matchups: Daryl Mitchell against Kuldeep Yadav, Virat Kohli against Kyle Jamieson
Daryl Mitchell against Kuldeep Yadav: Daryl Mitchell made 137 against India in Indore (18 January 2026). Kuldeep Yadav took 2 for 40 in 10 overs against New Zealand in the Champions Trophy final on 9 March 2025, and his middle overs are where India can slow Mitchell down.
Virat Kohli against Kyle Jamieson: Kyle Jamieson took 4 for 41 against India in Vadodara on 11 January 2026, and he dismissed Virat Kohli for 93 that day. Virat Kohli answered with 124 against New Zealand a week later (18 January 2026).
Tom Latham against Arshdeep Singh: Tom Latham made 145 not out against India in Auckland in November 2022. Arshdeep Singh took 3 for 63 against New Zealand in Indore (18 January 2026), and India need early wickets from him.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
New Zealand won the January 2026 ODI series in India 2-1. India won the first game in Vadodara by 4 wickets (11 January 2026). New Zealand then won in Rajkot by 7 wickets (14 January 2026) and in Indore by 41 runs (18 January 2026).
India won the two Champions Trophy meetings in Dubai in 2025: by 44 runs on 2 March 2025, and by 4 wickets in the final on 9 March 2025.
In Auckland, New Zealand beat India by 22 runs on 8 February 2020. New Zealand won at Eden Park again on 25 November 2022, by 7 wickets, when Tom Latham made 145 not out.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Eden Park, Auckland hosts this 1st ODI, a day/night game that starts at 3 pm local time.
- Pitch: India made 306 for 7 at the ground in November 2022. New Zealand passed it with 309 for 3 in 47.1 overs. Sri Lanka made 290 for 8 there on 11 January 2025. New Zealand were then all out for 150 in 29.4 overs.
- Weather: The forecast read on 1 November 2026 gives Auckland about 21°C, mostly cloudy, with a little rain possible in the afternoon.
- Start: 7:30 am IST (02:00 UTC), a day/night game.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — we expect the toss winner to field, at 72%. India won the toss and fielded in Vadodara and Indore, and New Zealand fielded on winning it in Rajkot, in the three ODIs of January 2026. In Auckland, India fielded after winning the toss in February 2020, and New Zealand did so in November 2022. We log every toss call publicly — the New Zealand vs India pick is on the toss page.
Match analysis: where New Zealand vs India will be won and lost
New Zealand's middle order carries their case. Daryl Mitchell made 137 and Glenn Phillips made 106 against India in Indore on 18 January 2026, and New Zealand reached 337 for 8. India's bowlers need early wickets to keep the pair apart.
India's top order has runs against this attack too. Virat Kohli's 124 on 18 January 2026 came in a chase that fell 41 runs short, and KL Rahul made 112 in Rajkot four days earlier.
The 3 pm start puts the second innings under lights. Toss winners chose to field in Vadodara, Rajkot and Indore in January 2026, and our call is field first again.
The market makes India 63.5% favourites, close to our 63%, so the case for India is a shared one.
New Zealand vs India prediction: India at 62.8%, with the toss as the angle
We back India at 62.8%. Virat Kohli made 124 against New Zealand on 18 January 2026, and India won the Champions Trophy final against them on 9 March 2025. New Zealand's case rests on Daryl Mitchell's January runs against India.
India's 1.52 sits below our fair odds of 1.59, so the match-winner market is fairly priced. The toss is the angle, and we expect the toss winner to field first, at 72%.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 37.2% | 36.5% | 2.53 | 2.69 |
| India | 62.8% | 63.5% | 1.52 | 1.59 |
The match-winner market is fairly priced. India's 1.52 sits below our fair odds of 1.59, and New Zealand's 2.53 below their fair 2.69. Odds captured 1 November 2026.
Our model is within a point of the market on India. We make India 62.8% and the market makes them 63.5%, so we agree on the favourite and roughly on the margin.
India tour of New Zealand 2026 ODI Series
New Zealand vs Indiaodds
4 Nov 2026 · 07:30 IST
Match winner: New Zealand 2.51 at 1xBet; India 1.54 at 1xBet; checked 19:55 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1NZ | 2IND | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.50 | 2 · India 1.53 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.50 | 2 · India 1.53 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.50 | 2 · India 1.53 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.50 | 2 · India 1.53 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.50 | 2 · India 1.53 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.51 | 2 · India 1.54 | Payout95.5% |
| Highest | 1 · New Zealand2.51 | 2 · India1.54 | Payout– |
1X2: New Zealand 2.52, Tie 50.00, India 1.54 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 19:55 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1NZ | XTie | 2IND | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · New Zealand 2.52 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · India 1.54 | Payout93.9% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.52 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · India 1.54 | Payout93.9% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.52 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · India 1.54 | Payout93.9% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.52 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · India 1.54 | Payout93.9% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.52 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · India 1.54 | Payout93.9% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.52 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · India 1.54 | Payout93.9% |
Total runs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Match573.5 | 1.91PlanBet | 1.751xBet |
| New Zealand279.5 | 1.92Megapari | 1.74Paripesa |
| India294.5 | 1.921xBet | 1.74Melbet |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win New Zealand vs India in the 1st ODI?
Our AI model makes India 62.8% favourites over New Zealand for the 1st ODI at Eden Park, Auckland, on 4 November 2026. Virat Kohli made 124 against New Zealand in Indore in January 2026, and India won the Champions Trophy final against them in March 2025.
What is the toss prediction for New Zealand vs India?
We expect the toss winner to field first, at 72%, for the 1st ODI in Auckland, a day/night game that starts at 3 pm local time. Toss winners chose to field in Vadodara, Rajkot and Indore when the sides met in January 2026.
What are the odds for New Zealand vs India?
The available price is 1.52 on India and 2.53 on New Zealand for the 1st ODI in Auckland. Our fair odds are 1.59 for India and 2.69 for New Zealand, so the match-winner market is fairly priced.
When did New Zealand and India last play an ODI?
New Zealand beat India by 41 runs in Indore on 18 January 2026. Daryl Mitchell made 137 and Glenn Phillips made 106 as New Zealand posted 337 for 8, and the win gave New Zealand the series 2-1.
Who captains New Zealand and India in the ODI series?
Mitchell Santner captains New Zealand and Shubman Gill captains India in the squads for the 1st ODI in Auckland on 4 November 2026. Shreyas Iyer is India's vice-captain.
How have New Zealand done against India at Eden Park?
New Zealand beat India by 7 wickets at Eden Park in November 2022, when Tom Latham made 145 not out from 104 balls. New Zealand also beat India there by 22 runs in February 2020.
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