South Australia vs Queensland Match 10 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
South Australia predicted to win with 63% probability against Queensland
South Australia
Queensland 37%Australian One-Day Cup
South Australia vs Queenslandodds
17 Oct 2026 · 05:00 IST
Match winner: South Australia 1.60 at Dafabet; Queensland 2.34 at Dafabet; checked 11:40–11:45 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1SOA | 2QLD | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · South Australia ▲1.60 | 2 · Queensland ▼2.34 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · South Australia ▲1.593 | 2 · Queensland ▼2.324 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · South Australia ▲1.593 | 2 · Queensland ▼2.324 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · South Australia ▲1.593 | 2 · Queensland ▼2.324 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · South Australia ▲1.593 | 2 · Queensland ▼2.324 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · South Australia ▲1.593 | 2 · Queensland ▼2.324 | Payout94.5% |
| Highest | 1 · South Australia1.60 | 2 · Queensland2.34 | Payout– |
1X2: South Australia 1.595, Tie 50.00, Queensland 2.329 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet; checked 11:40 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1SOA | XTie | 2QLD | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · South Australia ▲1.595 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Queensland ▼2.329 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · South Australia ▲1.595 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Queensland ▼2.329 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · South Australia ▲1.595 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Queensland ▼2.329 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · South Australia ▲1.595 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Queensland ▼2.329 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · South Australia ▲1.595 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Queensland ▼2.329 | Payout92.9% |
Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 66%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • South Australia predicted to win with 63% probability against Queensland
- • South Australia won by 70 runs against Victoria (12 October 2026), with Matthew Gilkes making 127
- • Hugh Weibgen made 125 against New South Wales (22 September) and 103 in Perth (13 October) in this One-Day Cup
- • Toss call: field first at 66%
- • South Australia carry a marginal edge at the current price, and the toss is the angle to follow
South Australia are favourites at home in Adelaide.
Our AI model predicts South Australia to beat Queensland with a 63% chance (62.9%) in the Australian One-Day Cup at Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide, from 5:00 am IST on 17 October 2026 (23:30 UTC on 16 October). The available price on South Australia sits just above our fair odds, a marginal edge, and the toss is where the sharper angle sits.
Both sides arrive off a win. South Australia beat Victoria by 70 runs (12 October 2026), and Queensland won by 15 runs against Western Australia (13 October 2026).
Can Matthew Gilkes keep South Australia's runs flowing?
Rain ended South Australia's opener in Perth as a no result (18 September 2026). Western Australia made 238 for 9 after South Australia won the toss and bowled. Jake Fraser-McGurk was 46 not out off 33 balls when the rain came. Wes Agar took 2 for 26 in 10 overs against Western Australia in that game.
South Australia beat Tasmania by seven runs in Adelaide (23 September 2026). South Australia made 383 for 7 batting first. Against Tasmania, Matthew Gilkes made 97 not out off 65 balls. Jake Fraser-McGurk added 88 off 47 balls in the same innings.
South Australia then won by 70 runs against Victoria at Junction Oval, Melbourne (12 October 2026). Against Victoria, Matthew Gilkes made 127 off 115 balls. Wes Agar took 3 for 35 in eight overs in that match. Jerrssis Wadia took 3 for 37 in 10 overs against Victoria in the same match. Victoria were bowled out for 241.
Can Hugh Weibgen's hundreds carry Queensland in Adelaide?
Victoria won by three wickets against Queensland at Allan Border Field, Brisbane (19 September 2026). Queensland made 335 for 7 after losing the toss. Victoria made 339 for 7 in 49.5 overs. Against Victoria, Hugo Burdon made 73 off 70 balls. Tom Straker took 4 for 50 in 10 overs in the same match.
New South Wales won by four wickets against Queensland at the same ground (22 September 2026), despite 125 off 89 balls from Hugh Weibgen. Queensland were bowled out for 358. New South Wales made 359 for 6 in 49 overs.
Queensland beat Western Australia by 15 runs at the WACA Ground, Perth (13 October 2026). Hugh Weibgen made 103 off 85 balls against Western Australia. Hugo Burdon added 67 off 49 balls in the same innings. Hayden Kerr took 3 for 31 in eight overs against Western Australia (13 October). Western Australia were bowled out for 246 in 44 overs.
Key Matchups: Matthew Gilkes, Hugh Weibgen and the bowlers facing them
Matthew Gilkes vs Tom Straker: Matthew Gilkes made 127 off 115 balls against Victoria (12 October). Tom Straker took 4 for 50 against Victoria in Brisbane (19 September).
Hugh Weibgen vs Wes Agar: Hugh Weibgen made 125 off 89 balls against New South Wales (22 September). Wes Agar took 3 for 35 against Victoria in Melbourne (12 October), and South Australia need early wickets from him.
Jake Fraser-McGurk vs Hayden Kerr: Jake Fraser-McGurk made 88 off 47 balls against Tasmania (23 September). Hayden Kerr took 3 for 31 against Western Australia in Perth (13 October).
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
South Australia beat Queensland by five wickets at Karen Rolton Oval on 14 February 2024, in the 2023-24 Marsh Cup. Queensland won by nine wickets against South Australia at Allan Border Field, Brisbane (25 October 2024).
South Australia beat Queensland by nine wickets under the DLS method at the same Adelaide ground (20 October 2025). Queensland beat South Australia by 125 runs at the Gabba, Brisbane, on 21 February 2026. South Australia's two wins in those four meetings both came in Adelaide.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide: the ground staged South Australia's seven-run win over Tasmania (23 September 2026), and their wins over Queensland on 14 February 2024 and 20 October 2025.
- Pitch: South Australia made 383 for 7 batting first against Tasmania here (23 September 2026). Tasmania made 376 for 8 in reply.
- Start: 5:00 am IST on 17 October 2026 (23:30 UTC on 16 October).
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — Tasmania won the toss and bowled at this ground (23 September 2026), and South Australia bowled after winning the toss versus Western Australia in Perth (18 September 2026). The South Australia vs Queensland toss page records our call before the toss and updates with the result.
Match Analysis: where this game will be won and lost
Both batting line-ups can post big totals. South Australia made 383 for 7 against Tasmania (23 September). Queensland made 335 for 7 against Victoria (19 September), then were bowled out for 358 by New South Wales (22 September).
The difference has been the bowling. Queensland lost both of those games despite the big totals. South Australia's attack bowled Victoria out for 241 in Melbourne (12 October), with Wes Agar and Jerrssis Wadia taking three wickets each.
If Queensland bat first again, Hugh Weibgen and Hugo Burdon need a total that Wes Agar and Jerrssis Wadia cannot run through. If South Australia bat first, Matthew Gilkes and Jake Fraser-McGurk set the pace.
South Australia vs Queensland Prediction: South Australia to win in Adelaide
Our AI model makes South Australia 63% favourites. They beat Tasmania by seven runs (23 September) and won by 70 runs against Victoria (12 October). They also beat Queensland in Adelaide on 14 February 2024 and 20 October 2025.
The price is close to our number. South Australia at 1.60 sit just above our fair odds of 1.59, a marginal edge of 0.6%, and Queensland at 2.34 are shorter than our fair 2.70. With so little between the price and our number, our toss call (field first, 66%) is the angle to follow.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Australia | 62.9% | 60.1% | 1.60 | 1.59 |
| Queensland | 37.1% | 39.9% | 2.34 | 2.70 |
Marginal value on South Australia. South Australia at 1.60 sit just above our fair odds of 1.59, a 0.6% edge, and Queensland at 2.34 are shorter than our fair 2.70. Our model is 2.8 points above the market on South Australia, close to the bookmaker's view, so the toss call (field first, 66%) is the sharper angle. Odds captured on 16 October 2026.
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win South Australia vs Queensland in the Australian One-Day Cup?
Our AI model predicts South Australia to beat Queensland with a 63% chance (62.9%) at Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide, at 23:30 UTC on 16 October 2026. South Australia beat Victoria by 70 runs (12 October 2026), and Queensland won by 15 runs against Western Australia (13 October 2026).
What is the toss prediction for South Australia vs Queensland?
Our toss call for South Australia vs Queensland is field first at 66%. Tasmania won the toss and bowled in Adelaide (23 September 2026), and Queensland batted first after losing the toss in all three of their One-Day Cup games this season (19 September, 22 September and 13 October 2026).
What are the odds for South Australia vs Queensland?
At the time of writing (16 October 2026), South Australia are 1.60 and Queensland 2.34. Our fair odds are 1.59 for South Australia and 2.70 for Queensland, so South Australia carry a marginal 0.6% edge and our toss call is the sharper angle.
Who are the key players for South Australia and Queensland?
For South Australia, Matthew Gilkes made 127 against Victoria (12 October 2026), and Wes Agar took 3 for 35 in that match. For Queensland, Hugh Weibgen made 103 against Western Australia (13 October 2026), and Tom Straker took 4 for 50 against Victoria (19 September 2026).
What is the head-to-head record between South Australia and Queensland?
South Australia beat Queensland by five wickets on 14 February 2024 and by nine wickets under the DLS method (20 October 2025), both at Karen Rolton Oval in Adelaide. Queensland won by nine wickets at Allan Border Field (25 October 2024) and by 125 runs at the Gabba on 21 February 2026.
